Accuweather 3 AM Discussion

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 7, 2004 2:44 a.m.


As of 11:00 PM EDT Depression Frances was located near 31.3 north, 84.6 west, or 30 miles south southwest of Albany Georgia. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph. The central pressure is 985 millibars (29.09 inches).Tropical-storm force wind gusts will continue to be felt over parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia..

The main problem with Frances will be the potential for heavy rainfall. A large area of heavy rain will remain with the remaining circulation for the next few days. The remnant low will track through northwest Georgia Tuesday night and Wednesday morning then into eastern Tennessee Wednesday afternoon. This large area of rain will bring potentially dangerous flooding to parts of Georgia, Tennessee, the western Carolinas and areas further north and northeast later in the week.

Hurricane Ivan, as of 2 AM EDT, was centered at 11.3 north, 57.8 west, or about 170 miles southeast of Barbados. Ivan is moving west at 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 105 mph, making it a category 2 hurricane. The central pressure is 963 millibars (28.48 inches). Reconnaissance information discovered a layer of drier than normal air over the northern part of the Hurricane. This is often called a Saharran air layer because these pockets of very dry air come from the Saharran Desert of Africa. This drier air layer causes hurricanes to weaken and that partially explains why Ivan has weakened. Another reason Ivan has weakened is due to its track. Hurricanes weaken when they move south of west and strengthen when they move north of west due to the change in coriolis force. The coriolis force is the force created by the earth's rotation. That force increases with increased latitude. If Ivan starts to move on a more west northwest path it will intensify. That is what we are expecting to happen. Ivan should pass just south of Barbados around daybreak on Tuesday then through the Windward Islands of the southern Lesser Antilles Tuesday afternoon and evening. Ivan continues on a course that will take it into the southern Caribbean Tuesday night and Wednesday. New computer models are taking this hurricane right through the central Caribbean and could threaten Jamaica Thursday night and Friday and reach central or western Cuba this weekend. Where it goes from there is very difficult to say. New model output is suggesting still a wide range of possibilities. So, keep checking back to AccuWeather.com on updated information on this dangerous hurricane.


A Low pressure area located at 30 north and 42 west is moving northeast at 15 mph. This is a non tropical system. However, large thunderstorms have developed around it and there is some chance this could become an organized tropical system within the next 24 hours. It will be only a concern to the far eastern Atlantic near the Azores during then next few days.


Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, we have a strong tropical wave along 33 west, south of 18 north and a tropical wave is in the eastern 82 west, south of 18 north. The tropical wave along 33 west does have a broad low level circulation and some computer model output suggests this feature might try to become better organized within the next couple of days.

[BReb]

Didn't Mitch bomb to a Category 5 while he was moving southwest?