11pm Ivan-NO LANDFALL IN HISPANOLA OR CUBA

[Brent]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast/Advisory Number 19

Statement as of 03:00Z on September 07, 2004

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Barbados...St. Lucia...St.
Vincent...The Grenadines...Tobago...and Grenada and its
dependencies.

At 11 PM AST...0300z...the Hurricane Watch has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Trinidad.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Ivan.

Hurricane center located near 11.2n 57.2w at 07/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 18 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 963 mb
Max sustained winds 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
64 kt....... 60ne 0se 0sw 60nw.
50 kt....... 75ne 20se 20sw 90nw.
34 kt.......140ne 50se 50sw 140nw.
12 ft seas..125ne 125se 125sw 125nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 11.2n 57.2w at 07/0300z
at 07/0000z center was located near 11.3n 56.3w

forecast valid 07/1200z 11.8n 59.8w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 0se 0sw 60nw.
50 kt... 75ne 20se 20sw 90nw.
34 kt...140ne 50se 50sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 08/0000z 12.7n 62.9w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 20se 20sw 60nw.
50 kt... 75ne 30se 30sw 90nw.
34 kt...140ne 60se 60sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 13.7n 66.1w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 20se 20sw 60nw.
50 kt... 90ne 50se 50sw 90nw.
34 kt...140ne 75se 75sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 09/0000z 14.7n 69.1w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
50 kt... 90ne 90se 50sw 90nw.
34 kt...140ne 140se 90sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 10/0000z 17.2n 74.3w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
50 kt...100ne 100se 60sw 90nw.
34 kt...160ne 160se 100sw 160nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 11/0000z 19.5n 78.7w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.

Outlook valid 12/0000z 21.5n 82.4w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 11.2n 57.2w

next advisory at 07/0900z

forecaster Lawrence/hennon

[Brent]

Passes near or over Jamaica sometime Friday and then over the Isle of Youth Saturday Evening as a Cat 4!

[canegrl04]

[tronbunny]

Passes near or over Jamaica sometime Saturday and then over the Isle of Youth Saturday Evening as a Cat 4!

That was Charley's track.. plus for intensity!
Hmmmm. can anyone go over the ridge/trough placements for Charley and compare to our current situation???
Or has the NHC done that, and sees the same?

[Brent]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 19

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 06, 2004

...dangerous Ivan maintains intensity...Nears the Windward Islands...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Barbados...St. Lucia...St.
Vincent...The Grenadines...Tobago...and Grenada and its
dependencies.

At 11 PM AST...0300z...the Hurricane Watch has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Trinidad.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Ivan.

At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 11.2 north... longitude 57.2 west or about 210 miles...
335 km... southeast of Barbados.

Ivan is moving toward the west near 21 mph ...33 km/hr. Ivan is
expected to take a gradual turn toward the west-northwest over the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb...28.44 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches can be expected as Ivan passes
through the islands. This can cause flash floods and dangerous
mudslides.

Repeating the 11 PM AST position...11.2 N... 57.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 963 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
AST.

Forecaster Lawrence/hennon

[calidoug]

Um, Hispanola is out, but Cuba?

I still say it's going to Brickell Key, FL.

[SouthernWx]

NHC is thinking the same as I tonight....a path between Haiti and Jamaica then between southeastern Cuba and Jamaica....then toward the Isle of Youth..

I take my forecast out to 168 hours Brent...and turn the hurricane NW into the SE GOM...near 23.5-84.5 at 144 hrs then to 26.5-85.5 at 168 hrs...similar to the ECMWF, except a bit farther west.

I'm not sure yet where it will go beyond that...the EURO hints at a track just offshore the Florida west coast then into the panhandle...while the 18z GFS progs a rapid motion NNE into the Cedar Key area, then across Florida toward Jacksonville. Floridians need to watch this cane like a hawk...but so should everyone else along the Gulf Coast. If this hurricane indeed runs south of Hispanola and eastern Cuba then across western Cuba into the SE GOM....130 mph is likely too conservative with the very high oceanic heat content located over the NW Caribbean and around western Cuba.

[ajaxw]

Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 19

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 06, 2004


an evaluation of the data from the hurricane hunters suggests that
Ivan has maintained its intensity over the last few hours.
Dropsondes throughout the mission have shown a modest drop in
pressure from 969 mb to 963 mb. The maximum flight level wind
measured was 106 kt...corresponding to a surface wind of 85 kt.
Satellite intensity estimates range from 65 kt to 90 kt...the
initial intensity is kept at 90 kt.

The initial motion is 275/18. Reconnaissance aircraft provided a
fix to the south of the previous forecast track. Ivan is expected
to resume a west-northwest course soon...as universally suggested
by the model guidance. Due in part to a more southerly initial
position...the forecast track is to the left of the previous one.
There is a difference of opinion in the dynamical models at 96 and
120 hours. The GFS...UKMET...and the FSU superensemble bring Ivan
well south of Cuba toward the Yucatan penninsula. NOGAPS and the
GFDL bring Ivan much closer to the southern coast of Cuba. The
official forecast splits the difference and is line with the
closely packed model consensus points.

A NOAA jet in Ivan this evening has found the existence of a Saharan
air layer in the northern quadrants of the storm. This may help
explain the weakening of Ivan throughout the day today. Ivan is
expected to gradually intensify as it proceeds to the west
throughout the forecast period. Since the new forecast keeps Ivan
away from any major land areas...the intensity of Ivan in the later
periods are maintained.


Forecaster Lawrence/hennon


forecast positions and Max winds


initial 07/0300z 11.2n 57.2w 90 kt
12hr VT 07/1200z 11.8n 59.8w 95 kt
24hr VT 08/0000z 12.7n 62.9w 100 kt
36hr VT 08/1200z 13.7n 66.1w 105 kt
48hr VT 09/0000z 14.7n 69.1w 110 kt
72hr VT 10/0000z 17.2n 74.3w 115 kt
96hr VT 11/0000z 19.5n 78.7w 115 kt
120hr VT 12/0000z 21.5n 82.4w 115 kt

[Brent]

Um, Hispanola is out, but Cuba?

I still say it's going to Brickell Key, FL.

I meant a landfall over Eastern Cuba where the mountains are. A track over Western Cuba won't weaken it(see Charley).

[Lockhart]

Calidoug--yes, I can see Brickell Key. Sounds about right.

[inotherwords]

They show the cone going over Eastern Cuba so anything is possible. I don't pay attention to the track, but the cone. It's still too early to tell what it's doing.

[alicia-w]

The NRL track has Ivan evading eastern Cuba; traveling over western Cuba and then going who knows where.