Implications of Another Charley

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canegrl04
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Implications of Another Charley

#1 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:58 am

Don't really want to think of Ivan being a cat. 4 plowing into the Western Fl. coast ,but its looking more a possibility :(
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ColinD
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#2 Postby ColinD » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:01 am

Have a cone and a smile.
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inotherwords
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#3 Postby inotherwords » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:03 am

Thank you for the voice of reason, ColinD.

Let's start looking at the cone, people, and not overreacting.
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#4 Postby Innotech » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:04 am

Im gonna stick with a Central american hit.
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ColinD
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#5 Postby ColinD » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:14 am

inotherwords wrote:Thank you for the voice of reason, ColinD.

Let's start looking at the cone, people, and not overreacting.


Florida is certainly a real possibility. We'll just have to see.

450 mile average error at 5 days. However Stewart's 5am comment was "all of the models ... including the UKMET...gradually build a strong high amplitude High/Ridge across the central U.S. And Mexico and into the western Gulf of Mexico by 120 hours that should act to block any westward
motion into the central and western Gulf" which might be squeezing the cone a bit.

It's too bad they use that average error cone though. It's a bit misleading. A standard deviation would be better. Also, the average error is not symmetrical. Some of it is in the direction of motion. Just a 2 mph difference in average expected forward motion adds up to 240 miles in "error". What I'd like to see is average width of track error (without regard to time). Better yet, 1 and 2 standard deviation "error width" cones.
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HurricaneBill
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#6 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:49 pm

ColinD wrote:Have a cone and a smile.


Sounds like a slogan for ice cream.
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