The real BIG one?

PTPatrick · #1 Postby **PTPatrick** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:48 am

I am beginning to think this is going to be an aweful week on the gulf coast, particularly from New Orleans to Tampa. This is an area that has sustained major hurricane hits quite frequently. The last major hurricane strike in the area from Pensacola to New Orleans was Fredric in 79(Elena was technically a cat 3, but I have never met anybody thought it was true cat 3 damage). The Panhandle had opal, which was a weakening cat3. There will be great wailing an nashing of teeth this week, and I not quite sure I am mentally prepared for that at this point. I do fear for New Orleans, but also my home here on the Bayou in southeast Mississippi. Looking back at hurricane records shows that many of the "big ones" for this area passed through or were born in the area south Cuba. Camille comes to mind as it pressure bombed from the moment it emerged from the Cuban coast. Fredric bombed there as well. I hope folks here are prepared for what might be headed this way.

PS. This is not a post meant to take Texas, western Louisiana and other areas of FL out of the game. Just a little remembrance of the canes of yore.

Innotech · #2 Postby **Innotech** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:55 am

looks like Ivan will be a non event by his current motion.

Travelgirl · #3 Postby **Travelgirl** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:00 am

I disagreed I think Ivan will affect someone in the US. :eek:

flashflood1998 · #4 Postby **flashflood1998** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:01 am

innotech, yeah we're gonna have to go ahead and ask you to retract that prediction for a couple of days...

ColinD · #5 Postby **ColinD** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:04 am

Travelgirl wrote: I think Ivan will affect someone in the US.

Agree with you there. Look at the average cone of error.

canegrl04 · #6 Postby **canegrl04** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:10 am

If Ivan were going to be anon event for the US,I think the NHC would've at least hinted already that he coud crash into South,or central America.All the models take Ivan up in the general area of Fl.,and the Easter Gulf :roll:

PTPatrick · #7 Postby **PTPatrick** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:11 am

Hey now, dont beat up on Innotech...he has a definate point. I said it last night, and still think it is a possibility that Ivan go into South America of Central America. My feeling is it wont, but it is most certainly within the realm of possiblity given the current state of affairs and the fact that Ivan has not behaved up until now.

#8 Postby **alicia-w** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:14 am

Georges was a Cat 3, wasnt it? That was 1998 and I remember it well. Long, unpleasant story with that one.

Innotech · #9 Postby **Innotech** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:15 am

canegrl04 wrote:If Ivan were going to be anon event for the US,I think the NHC would've at least hinted already that he coud crash into South,or central America.All the models take Ivan up in the general area of Fl.,and the Easter Gulf

this early in the game ANY forecast can have enormous errors.
the storm is very far south, skirting the S american coast. even on a recurve, with a strong ridge ohlding him down, Ivan can just as easily continue westward into Central americas as a US non event as he could affect anything in CONUS.
Forecasting is an imperfect science, and anything can happen at htis point.

PTPatrick · #10 Postby **PTPatrick** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:16 am

George was in fact technically a cat 2...pressure was about 960 and 110 mph. Most folks around here though felt that the damage was worse than Elena which as a 115 mph cat 3. So go fingure.

Innotech · #11 Postby **Innotech** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:17 am

PTPatrick wrote:Hey now, dont beat up on Innotech...he has a definate point. I said it last night, and still think it is a possibility that Ivan go into South America of Central America. My feeling is it wont, but it is most certainly within the realm of possiblity given the current state of affairs and the fact that Ivan has not behaved up until now.

at least Im not forecasting it to go through a ridge into the Carolinas :roll:

JQ Public · #12 Postby **JQ Public** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:17 am

He is definitely turning into a scary lookin hurricane!

B-Bear · #13 Postby **B-Bear** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:20 am

Innotech wrote:
PTPatrick wrote:Hey now, dont beat up on Innotech...he has a definate point. I said it last night, and still think it is a possibility that Ivan go into South America of Central America. My feeling is it wont, but it is most certainly within the realm of possiblity given the current state of affairs and the fact that Ivan has not behaved up until now.

at least Im not forecasting it to go through a ridge into the Carolinas

I am.

Innotech · #14 Postby **Innotech** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:21 am

maybe it will make people feel better If I say, yes its possible to go into the CONUS but I personally dont expect it to.

quickychick · #15 Postby **quickychick** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:25 am

It'd make me feel better if you said "Ala KAZAAM!" and Ivan went up in a puff of SAL.

wolfmmiii · #16 Postby **wolfmmiii** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:26 am

flashflood1998 wrote:innotech, yeah we're gonna have to go ahead and ask you to retract that prediction for a couple of days...

Flashflood...Not sure anyone picked up on the Office Space reference. It wasn't in vain...I did...

Innotech · #17 Postby **Innotech** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:27 am

wolfmmiii wrote:
flashflood1998 wrote:innotech, yeah we're gonna have to go ahead and ask you to retract that prediction for a couple of days...

Flashflood...Not sure anyone picked up on the Office Space reference. It wasn't in vain...I did...

you forgot the "mmmkay?"
I love that movie 8-)

AussieMark · #18 Postby **AussieMark** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:34 am

just hope it doesn't come to Central America.

the strength he will have by then would give us a large death toll.

he is getting larger.

Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from the center

Tropical storm force winds extend 160 miles from the center.

That is already bigger than Charley.

Innotech · #19 Postby **Innotech** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:35 am

tropicalweatherwatcher wrote:just hope it doesn't come to Central America.

the strength he will have by then would give us a large death toll.

he is getting larger.

Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from the center

Tropical storm force winds extend 160 miles from the center.

That is already bigger than Charley.

did you get the memo?

quickychick · #20 Postby **quickychick** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:37 am

did you get the memo?

Ah, but where was the cover on the TPS report?

The real BIG one?

The real BIG one?

Did you get the memo?

Re: Did you get the memo?

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