The 06Z GFDL is much further south than the 00Z run..

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tw861
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The 06Z GFDL is much further south than the 00Z run..

#1 Postby tw861 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:20 am

06Z

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

00Z

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

WHat changed in 6 hours to cause this much of a difference? Has anybody seen the 12Z run ?
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ColinD
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#2 Postby ColinD » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:25 am

Wow. Look how far it takes Ivan westward before starting a northwesterly turn. That'll be easy enough to verify or not.
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#3 Postby Huckster » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:28 am

Not sure what caused the difference. Looks like the 00Z run is in error though at least in the short term. It took Ivan a full degree north of Grenada, and it looks like Ivan will actually pass right over Grenada, or at least very close, assuming there are no major changes in the next few hours.
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tw861
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#4 Postby tw861 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:39 am

Well whatever caused it there is a big difference. The 06Z 126 hr looks to be about 300 miles southwest of the 00Z 126 hr and about 20mb stronger. Of course the difference in strength could be that there was no major interaction with land.
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Re: The 06Z GFDL is much further south than the 00Z run..

#5 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:44 am

tw861 wrote:06Z

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

00Z

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

WHat changed in 6 hours to cause this much of a difference? Has anybody seen the 12Z run ?


its the gfdl...as DT has previousely stated its really lousy beyound 96h adn remember its run off the infamous gfs which hasnt been reall good the last few weeks with these systems so basically ignore any huge swings.
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Re: The 06Z GFDL is much further south than the 00Z run..

#6 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 07, 2004 9:52 am

jlauderdal wrote:
tw861 wrote:06Z

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

00Z

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

WHat changed in 6 hours to cause this much of a difference? Has anybody seen the 12Z run ?


its the gfdl...as DT has previousely stated its really lousy beyound 96h adn remember its run off the infamous gfs which hasnt been reall good
the last few weeks with these systems so basically ignore any huge swings.


The NHC has shifted the track south again for the 11am advisory.
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