12:00 Models for Ivan=All point towards Cuba

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cycloneye
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12:00 Models for Ivan=All point towards Cuba

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:37 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040907 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040907 1200 040908 0000 040908 1200 040909 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.6N 59.4W 12.3N 62.3W 13.1N 65.2W 14.4N 68.2W
BAMM 11.6N 59.4W 11.9N 62.9W 12.3N 66.2W 13.2N 69.0W
A98E 11.6N 59.4W 11.9N 62.5W 12.5N 65.4W 13.4N 68.1W
LBAR 11.6N 59.4W 12.4N 62.4W 13.1N 65.8W 14.3N 69.1W
SHIP 100KTS 99KTS 99KTS 99KTS
DSHP 100KTS 99KTS 99KTS 99KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040909 1200 040910 1200 040911 1200 040912 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.8N 70.8W 17.8N 74.9W 19.1N 77.5W 21.2N 79.8W
BAMM 14.3N 71.5W 16.4N 75.1W 18.3N 77.2W 21.3N 79.5W
A98E 14.5N 70.5W 16.6N 74.4W 18.9N 77.1W 22.4N 78.7W
LBAR 15.7N 72.2W 17.9N 76.8W 19.7N 78.8W 22.6N 81.1W
SHIP 102KTS 105KTS 111KTS 108KTS
DSHP 102KTS 105KTS 111KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 59.4W DIRCUR = 274DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 56.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 52.5W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 90KT
CENPRS = 963MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 140NM
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#2 Postby OtherHD » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:42 am

The A98E doesn't have it veering SW into Nicaragua. I'm shocked!

On a lighter note, I am NOT liking the path those models take right now. I wish they'd shift back west.
Last edited by OtherHD on Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby ColinD » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:43 am

OtherHD wrote:The A98E doesn't have it veering SW into Nicaragua. I'm shocked!


Heh.
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#4 Postby MWatkins » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:59 am

OtherHD wrote:The A98E doesn't have it veering SW into Nicaragua. I'm shocked!

On a lighter note, I am NOT liking the path those models take right now. I wish they'd shift back west.


Don't even bother looking at the 06Z GFS then... :wink:

Whelp...we'll see what the 12Z models indicate..they should rolling out in another 3 hours or so. There is some hope that the terrain to the south will start to interrupt Ivan some until it gets a little more to the north.

MW
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#5 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:01 am

MW - the UKMET comes out a couple of hours after the GFS, right?

Oh and, are the above BAMs and LBAR based on the 0Z or the 6Z GFS?
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#6 Postby Weeks Bay » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:03 am

Oh My!!
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#7 Postby FungusMoldlyColdcuts » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:05 am

Im getting awfully concerned, Mr. Watkins.
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#8 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:20 am

I think it's WAY too early to worry about another Florida landfall. I have gut feeling this baby will not bother Florida. Please don't ask me why.
It's just a gut feeling. But the way my gut feeling was not that far off with Frances. I said it was going make landfall
from the Key's to Miami. Hey I got the state right. :)
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#9 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:34 am

Image
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#10 Postby btsgmdad » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:36 am

Those models are getting way too close to Charley's track for my taste. :(
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#11 Postby cape_escape » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:55 am

btsgmdad wrote:Those models are getting way too close to Charley's track for my taste. :(


I'm with you! It does remind me of Charley :( ...I hope I'm wrong!!!!
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#12 Postby skysummit » Tue Sep 07, 2004 9:02 am

If it follows UKMET, I have a strange feeling this may the big one that New Orleans has been dreading for years.
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#13 Postby melhow » Tue Sep 07, 2004 9:04 am

Yikes....

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html
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GOM . . . Could Be

#14 Postby TideFreak » Tue Sep 07, 2004 9:11 am

Granted we are a good way out on forecasts, but the GOM is starting to look like a very strong possibility. LA to FL. I surely don't want to wish it on someone else, like us, but the poor people in Florida just cannot take another one.
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#15 Postby cape_escape » Tue Sep 07, 2004 9:16 am




:eek: DOUBLE, TRIPLE, QUADRUPLE, YIKES!!!!! How reliable is the NOGAPS?
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#16 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 07, 2004 9:17 am

WOW... :eek: :eek: :(
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#17 Postby stormchazer » Tue Sep 07, 2004 9:22 am

Will someone turn the d#mn Hurricane Magnet off here in FL.
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#18 Postby cape_escape » Tue Sep 07, 2004 9:27 am

stormchazer wrote:Will someone turn the d#mn Hurricane Magnet off here in FL.



:lol:
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#19 Postby CFL » Tue Sep 07, 2004 10:03 am

Incredible :eek: Never thought all this would happen when hurricane season started this year . . .
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#20 Postby ~SirCane » Tue Sep 07, 2004 10:32 am

This is dang scary.

Hey CFL-I'm not too far from ya!
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