GFDL...Not If But When

[Guest]

When the GFDL gets the its early glitches fixed as usual with seemingly every storm.It will shift right & in return the NHC track will shift once again & the emphasis will be placed on the Keys & South Fla from there on out.

[canegrl04]

[jlauderdal]

When the GFDL gets the its early glitches fixed as usual with seemingly every storm.It will shift right & in return the NHC track will shift once again & the emphasis will be placed on the Keys & South Fla from there on out.

hope you are wrong but based on the synoptic stewarts 5 am disco this south and west stuff seems next to impossible. We are just going to have to wait until the new models role out and do our own analysis until we get a shift change at nhc. hate be so harsh but thats the way i see it. stay safe everyone, alot of drivers in florida dont understand the concept of a 4 way stop when the traffic lights arent working.

[ericinmia]

When the GFDL gets the its early glitches fixed as usual with seemingly every storm.It will shift right & in return the NHC track will shift once again & the emphasis will be placed on the Keys & South Fla from there on out.

hope you are wrong but based on the synoptic stewarts 5 am disco this south and west stuff seems next to impossible. We are just going to have to wait until the new models role out and do our own analysis until we get a shift change at nhc. hate be so harsh but thats the way i see it. stay safe everyone, alot of drivers in florida dont understand the concept of a 4 way stop when the traffic lights arent working.

lol, just when the traffic lights aren't working!? I have trouble with people at regular 3-4 way stops... cars trail eachother so that they can get through without waiting/stopping.

I agree as Stacy said... this storm is going to turn NW sooner than many models, esp. gfs solutions predict. We just have to wait it out in our already shuttered up fortresses and see...
-Eric

[Sanibel]

While GFDL took ridicule but then nailed Frances' intensity drop well in advance, I will come right out and call it wacked for dropping Ivan in intensity west of Jamaica where SST's traditionally flare already-formed cyclones like Mitch...

[x-y-no]

Well I said Louisiana yesterday, and I guess I'll stick with it.

I'm getting more concerned about a Charley-like track, though.

[Stormsfury]

Don't look at the 0z ECMWF ...

Ivan pulls a CHARLEY ... except instead of initial landfall in Western Cuba, it's on Eastern Cuba, into the Florida Straits, to Key West, and SHARPLY curves an buries Tampa on Day 7 ... and into the Carolinas afterwards ...

ECMWF 7 Day SFC Loop - CLICK

Question here, though, is NOT so much in the 500mb pattern ... it's what Ivan does in the next couple of days ... IVAN is depicted MUCH further north than it's current trajectory, and will have ALL the difference in being pulled initially more WNW vs WEST ... which has NOT materialized yet ...

Frances does leave behind a trough in its wake, BUT that quickly closes (as Frances it moving much, much faster than originally thought by the NHC and frankly most of us) ... which on Day 3, there's a very large double barrel sprawling high ... then a new trough materializes and swings down and creates a weakness in the ridge right around the 85ºW line ... BUT again, the KEY, is Ivan in the short term ... should that WNW to NW motion NOT occur early, it's all mute ... will likely NOT be far enough north for mid-latitude weather to impact Ivan movement ... at least in the next 5 days ...

SF

[Rainband]

No more storms for Florida

[Stormcenter]

In my opinion Ivan is way too south to be in a position
to come close to bothering the Keys or Miami in 5 days or whatever.
I wouldhave to say "right now" this will be a problem from
LA. to the Florida panhandle. O.K. in a sense Florida is still under the
gun but not in the same area as with Frances. Stay tuned because things
will change again and again.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[guanaskip]

I heard from friends down there that without stoplights traffic is safer. no one running red lights anymore!