UKMET Agreement w/ NOGAPS and GFS

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MWatkins
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UKMET Agreement w/ NOGAPS and GFS

#1 Postby MWatkins » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:05 pm

Not really what I wanted to see...but somehat what I was expecting to see...

MW

HURRICANE IVAN ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 59.4W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092004



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 07.09.2004 11.7N 59.4W INTENSE
00UTC 08.09.2004 12.7N 62.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2004 13.8N 65.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2004 15.3N 68.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2004 16.3N 70.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2004 17.8N 73.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.09.2004 19.2N 75.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2004 20.5N 77.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2004 21.2N 78.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2004 22.3N 79.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2004 23.6N 80.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2004 25.2N 81.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2004 26.9N 80.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
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Canelaw99
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#2 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:06 pm

Need picture - my poor little mind doesn't comprehend the list of numbers so well :oops:
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#3 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:07 pm

me too! How can we figure out what our locations latitude and longitude are?

Thanks!
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#4 Postby alicia-w » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:07 pm

can you translate or paraphrase? (whichever is easiest and still relays the intent)
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Re: UKMET Agreement w/ NOGAPS and GFS

#5 Postby Deenac813 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:08 pm

MWatkins wrote:Not really what I wanted to see...but somehat what I was expecting to see...

MW

HURRICANE IVAN ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 59.4W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092004



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 07.09.2004 11.7N 59.4W INTENSE
00UTC 08.09.2004 12.7N 62.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2004 13.8N 65.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2004 15.3N 68.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2004 16.3N 70.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2004 17.8N 73.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.09.2004 19.2N 75.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2004 20.5N 77.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2004 21.2N 78.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2004 22.3N 79.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2004 23.6N 80.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2004 25.2N 81.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2004 26.9N 80.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY




ummm that last position is almost over house :cry:
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#6 Postby MSRobi911 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:08 pm

Mike, Mike, MIke........

I don't like those last positions.....sorta pointing at MS Gulf Coast....:( Never mind, don't have my glasses on...thought it was 86, not 80.6 :) I feel better, but not for FL....
Last edited by MSRobi911 on Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#7 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:09 pm

Uh oh, that means it's close to me - :eek: time to get my little map out and check those myself...
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#8 Postby fortmyerseng » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:09 pm

tracy,

the 25.2N and 81.1W corresponds almost right on with Naples.

hope that helps
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#9 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:11 pm

By my map, it's closer to the Miami area than the Naples area. :eek:
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#10 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:11 pm

fortmyerseng wrote:tracy,

the 25.2N and 81.1W corresponds almost right on with Naples.

hope that helps


That helps but not what I wanted to see in the above forecast, I said yesterday that my intuition said Collier County. OOPS!
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#11 Postby Deenac813 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:12 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:By my map, it's closer to the Miami area than the Naples area. :eek:



I show Fort lauderdale as 26.4 N & 80.9W and I am just south of that.
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Don't Understand

#12 Postby Rob H » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:13 pm

Last coordinates 26.9N 80.6W puts it over the middle of Florida east of Ft
Myers. How can it be intensifing rapidly over land.
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#13 Postby MSRobi911 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:13 pm

So they expect it to make a right hook?
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#14 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:15 pm

I've seen some of the models going that route, MS...not good for us down here....
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#15 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:19 pm

:Hug:

Pic:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
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Re: UKMET Agreement w/ NOGAPS and GFS

#16 Postby tronbunny » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:22 pm

MWatkins wrote: 00UTC 12.09.2004 22.3N 79.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2004 23.6N 80.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2004 25.2N 81.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2004 26.9N 80.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY



What the heck is that?
80.8W then 81.1W and then back out to 80.6W??
:roll:
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bigmike

#17 Postby bigmike » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:24 pm

Oh well there goes the south fla economy for the next two years :cry: I guess avilas forecast will be shifted right again.
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#18 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:26 pm

Can we just put yellow "Caution" tape around the whole state for a while?????
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Re: UKMET Agreement w/ NOGAPS and GFS

#19 Postby alicia-w » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:28 pm

tronbunny wrote:
MWatkins wrote: 00UTC 12.09.2004 22.3N 79.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2004 23.6N 80.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2004 25.2N 81.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2004 26.9N 80.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY



What the heck is that?
80.8W then 81.1W and then back out to 80.6W??
:roll:


I thought that was a bit odd also. Isnt it difficult for a storm that large to make that much of a directional change in 12 hours?
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#20 Postby jabber » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:31 pm

Ok... I am way to tired for another Hurricane. Watch, I will get power back on and then lose it the next day :) I have averaged about 3 hours (sleep)a night for the last week.
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