Ivan Advisories

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dennis1x1

#201 Postby dennis1x1 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 10:59 am

one makes a bet based on better than 50-50 ods......so with that in mind a sub-920 Ivan is probably 100-1.......so assuming a 1-1 payout, one can easily answer the "why" question posed earlier.

:wink:
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drezee
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#202 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:04 am

Opal was 916 MB...
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Matthew5

#203 Postby Matthew5 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:06 am

Soming tells me that this is going to be very bad! Why because it shown a skull last night :eek:
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#204 Postby donsutherland1 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:12 am

I had used the Unisys site and saw two conflicting figures. I erred on the side of conservatism and took the 919 mb reading: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

In any case, Opal was a sub-920 mb storm.
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#205 Postby AdvAutoBob » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:49 am

Sanibel wrote:I suppose a red sky possessing a 115mph hurricane could be a "delight" for some sailors.


We have a tropical flow over us now bearing rain cells from Frances. We need to get our roof vent fixed...


The saying is an old one, typically used by sailors in the 19th century, read it in more than a few books... as you know, the study of weather back then was rife with errors (see- Isaac Cline), but as I said before, I understand how you meant it. Hope you get your roof situation resolved pretty quickly. :)
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abajan
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#206 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:45 pm

Pray for Grenada! :(

Considering the weather we had earlier, it's a miracle that my electricity has come back on so soon. As a safety policy, the electric company shuts down power islandwide when winds reach 60 mph. I understand that our airport recorded gusts as high as 85 mph (some reports say 90 mph).

Well, as you can see, I made it through the ordeal quite well but things got kind of scary there for a while, especially around 9:30 AST when the winds were really roaring. From listening to the radio, 167 houses (and at least a couple of hotels) have sustained significant damage but, believe me, that toll is sure to rise. 600 houses were damaged in Tropical Storm Lili a couple of years ago and IMO this was much worse than that. In addition to property damage, many utility poles and trees were downed, thus many of the roads are blocked.

It's still overcast outside but we really haven't had much rain to speak of as yet. The real story is the almost unbelievably strong winds. They are still blowing but are much weaker than a few hours ago. This is undoubtedly the worse storm event that Barbados has experienced since Hurricane Janet in '55 and it will be quite a while before things are back to normal.

Thankfully, to my knowledge, there have been no injuries nor fatalities. This is also a miracle because (believe it or not) at the height of the winds some people decided to go out sightseeing and even flying kites! :eek: I think the low barometric pressure has a strange effect on people's sanity or something.

Anyway, thanks again for all your concerns for my safety and that of fellow Barbadians. :)
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#207 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:47 pm

abajan wrote:Pray for Grenada! :(

Considering the weather we had earlier, it's a miracle that my electricity has come back on so soon. As a safety policy, the electric company shuts down power islandwide when winds reach 60 mph. I understand that our airport recorded gusts as high as 85 mph (some reports say 90 mph).

Well, as you can see, I made it through the ordeal quite well but things got kind of scary there for a while, especially around 9:30 AST when the winds were really roaring. From listening to the radio, 167 houses (and at least a couple of hotels) have sustained significant damage but, believe me, that toll is sure to rise. 600 houses were damaged in Tropical Storm Lili a couple of years ago and IMO this was much worse than that. In addition to property damage, many utility poles and trees were downed, thus many of the roads are blocked.

It's still overcast outside but we really haven't had much rain to speak of as yet. The real story is the almost unbelievably strong winds. They are still blowing but are much weaker than a few hours ago. This is undoubtedly the worse storm event that Barbados has experienced since Hurricane Janet in '55 and it will be quite a while before things are back to normal.

Thankfully, to my knowledge, there have been no injuries nor fatalities. This is also a miracle because (believe it or not) at the height of the winds some people decided to go out sightseeing and even flying kites! :eek: I think the low barometric pressure has a strange effect on people's sanity or something.

Anyway, thanks again for all your concerns for my safety and that of fellow Barbadians. :)


WOW... when I saw the 90 mph gust on the NHC 11am advisory I immediately thought of you. Your power company is better than I thought, LOL

Poor Grenada. :cry:
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#208 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 07, 2004 2:05 pm

Looks like I spoke too fast, it ain't over yet. The winds are gusting dangerously outside again. Heck, how big is this monster anyway???
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#209 Postby Matthew5 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 2:06 pm

Its getting stronger pressure is down to 956 millibars. The hurricane force wind field is over 70 miles. This storm appears to be bombing! I hope your ok in make it through this storm.
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#210 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 07, 2004 2:12 pm

More bad news:

Reports are sketchy, but it appears that an elderly lady lost her life as a result of Ivan. :(
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Re: Ivan: Possible Sub-920 mb Hurricane?

#211 Postby donsutherland1 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 2:55 pm

At another message board, the issue as to what month these monster hurricanes formed arose. The information follows:

From the sample at the beginning of this thread, the sub-920 mb storms formed as follows:

July: 1 (Allen developed July 31)
August: 0
September: 4
October: 1

Other sub-920 mb storms of note, the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and Camille formed in August.

From the above sample, hurricanes with a pressure of 925 mb or lower formed as follows:

July: 1
August: 2
September: 6
October: 1

Since 1950, Category 5 Hurricanes developed in the following months:

July: 1
August: 9
September: 10
October: 2
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#212 Postby tronbunny » Tue Sep 07, 2004 3:27 pm

Abajan,
are you OK, assessing damage?
I hope you can get some rest, and there are no more injuries or fatalities.
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#213 Postby Wainfleeter » Tue Sep 07, 2004 3:35 pm

abajan wrote:More bad news:

Reports are sketchy, but it appears that an elderly lady lost her life as a result of Ivan. :(


:cry:
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abajan
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#214 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:00 pm

I'm okay, tronbunny. Thanks for your concern.

BTW, although there's still a lot of wind blowing, it seems that the dangerous gusts have just about gone. It's been raining lightly for a while but judging from the satellite pix, that will probably taper off by early nightfall.

And now looking farther to the east...Jeanne?
HOLY MOLY!!
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Image of Ivan hitting Grenada...

#215 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:25 pm

Image
Last edited by Brent on Tue Sep 07, 2004 10:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#216 Postby dhweather » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:27 pm

Man, that's gotta hurt!
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#217 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:27 pm

That's like Josh Beckett for the Yankees, a pain in the butt!
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#218 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:33 pm

Imagine what it must have been like in central Grenada when the northern part of the eyewall moved through!
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#219 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:36 pm

Hey look at that...I 've been so engrossed in talking about Ivan that I didn't even realise when I became a tropical storm!

Tropical Storm Abajan...hmm...it has a nice ring to it, don't you think? LOL
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#220 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:06 pm

Ouch!!!
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