12z GEM consistent w/ last 2 runs

[PurdueWx80]

The GEM has been very consistent over the last 24 hours w/ bringing Ivan into the Gulf via the channel between the Yucatan and Cuba. Here is a copy of this morning's run:



The synoptic setup that the Eta has is also similar, and the Eta has Ivan south of Jamaica at 84 hours. There is increasing confidence of this being a major Gulf of Mexico storm. If South America doesn't tear up Ivan, we may have not yet had the worst storm of 2004.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

please, perdue, watch the GGEMs erratic ensemble performance where it drew these grids. then tell me how much confidence you have in the GGEM. And the ETA is not going to handle Ivan anything near correctly at this point

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSC ... sloop.html

[canegrl04]

Remind me to never ask you to make me a sandwich

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

I am not saying those forecasts will not be accurate. But I wouldn't put much confidence at this time.

[pbobbyp]

I hope that all of you people I disagree with who want Ivan in your location get what you wish. I hope that Ivan hits at alamaba coast and just rides the coast line all the way across to texas and turns south down the coast. After Frances coming into florida and then into georgia I am so tireed of all this rain. The stress of tornado warnings, 11 inches of rain in areas with already saturated ground and wind that seems to bring down trees everytime a gust comes through is not fun at all. You people I disagree with can have the next 240 Hurricanes for all i care. Maybe it will keep some of you people I disagree with from wanting it to hit your area.

[alicia-w]

That wasnt nice. I dont see anybody w- - -casting here.

PS. I thought that was now a banned word on this site.

[NorthGaWeather]

Oh c'mon there isn't much stress with tornado warnings, there actually pretty fun. I'd like another tropical system up here into GA we only have recieved 2.22 inches here.

[rjp]

It's also possibly that some models can be consistently wrong. Key is being accurate, not consistent.

[pbobbyp]

north georgia you have not even gotten the worst part of frances yet. lets see what your opinion is when it rains for 4 days straight with high winds and your alert radio going off every 15 minutes stating that you are under a tornado warning . you can not get any sleep cause you are too worried that when you do close your eyes that a tornado will hit you. not so sure about in north georgia but down here in savannah there are very few if any homes that have a basement or a tornado shelter to get into in the event that one touches down. also they tell you that if u dont have a basement then lie down flat in the nearest ditch, what is that alll the ditches are over flowing now from the rain so its either drown or be sucked up.

[NorthGaWeather]

If you don't have a basement you should move to a room with no windows on the lowest level of your house. Put as many walls between you and the tornado. I've been thru Opal and she had alot more fight in her. I've lived in N. GA my enitre life and to say the least we've been thru some tornadoes. Anyone remember Palm Sunday 1994, or the November 1992 outbreak to name a few. Don't be worried about tornadoes, if one is meant for you it will get you no matter if your prepared. Put it in God's hands and forget about the fear, besides the worst is into SC now.

[Canelaw99]

All you can really do with any of these natural events (tornados, 'canes, quakes, etc.) is to be as prepared as you can be - have a plan in place (safe place to evacuate to, a safe room to go to, etc.). If you've done that, then the rest is, unfotunately, out of your control. Once it's out of your control, there's no sense in being terrified because it's not going to do any good. I'm one of those who, yes, would like the experience of going through a minor 'cane because I've never been through it, but it doesn't mean I'm asking for one. I know that I live in an area where these storms happen, and I just have to accept it or move.

Being cooped up in a house for several days is not fun, trust me, I know, but I'm fortunate. There are people right now without a home, or worse, who lost a loved one to this storm, so I really don't have anything to complain about.

[PTrackerLA]

Don't know what to think about Ivan today. I've seen all the models but some are saying FLORIDA and others say this will be a MAJOR GOM STORM. One things for sure that GEM model is scary with that monster coming right for us.

[PurdueWx80]

please, perdue, watch the GGEMs erratic ensemble performance where it drew these grids. then tell me how much confidence you have in the GGEM. And the ETA is not going to handle Ivan anything near correctly at this point

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSC ... sloop.html

Unfortunately, this loop won't run in any of my browsers, but I went to the Environment Canada site and looked at the ensemble members for 168 and 192 hours. There is remarkable agreement between about half of the members for a GOM storm..which is interesting being that 168 hours is a long way out. The rest either lose Ivan or take him just east of FL. I guess we disagree here because I see very good agreement for a period that is over a week away.

[southerngale]

I hope that all of you people I disagree with who want Ivan in your location get what you wish. I hope that Ivan hits at alamaba coast and just rides the coast line all the way across to texas and turns south down the coast. After Frances coming into florida and then into georgia I am so tireed of all this rain. The stress of tornado warnings, 11 inches of rain in areas with already saturated ground and wind that seems to bring down trees everytime a gust comes through is not fun at all. You people I disagree with can have the next 240 Hurricanes for all i care. Maybe it will keep some of you people I disagree with from wanting it to hit your area.

This is uncalled for. I don't know who you are referring to as "you people I disagree with" but this kind of post won't be allowed here. Just because people are concerned about a potential hit in their area does NOT mean they are a wishcaster. We want everyone to be comfortable asking questions here without fear of being attacked and called a wishcaster.
I don't think anyone wants to see destruction like Charley and Frances caused but everyone is concerned, and some on edge.
Cool it!

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

please, perdue, watch the GGEMs erratic ensemble performance where it drew these grids. then tell me how much confidence you have in the GGEM. And the ETA is not going to handle Ivan anything near correctly at this point

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSC ... sloop.html

Unfortunately, this loop won't run in any of my browsers, but I went to the Environment Canada site and looked at the ensemble members for 168 and 192 hours. There is remarkable agreement between about half of the members for a GOM storm..which is interesting being that 168 hours is a long way out. The rest either lose Ivan or take him just east of FL. I guess we disagree here because I see very good agreement for a period that is over a week away.

point taken.

At 168 hours out before frances, 6 runs were near the keys or S florida and 7 to new england.

what are the general synopsis of each of these members you are speaking of? and the ones that are in agreement with a solution as to your original post?

iffy.

[PurdueWx80]

Look, the point of my orinigal post was just what it said and nothing more, that the GEM has been very consistent for 3 cycles. I'm not saying it is right or wrong. Of course it is possible to be consistently wrong, but I happen to like the GEM and I really feel this is a threat to the Gulf. I know nothing about the members of the GEM other than what you and I can see.

The GFS is a piece of crap in my book - just as the new GPS dropsonde data is assimilated into it, it mysteriously ends up curving to the right. It did this with Frances as well - and we all can see as plain as day that Frances didn't make landfall in North Carolina. Wait for the older cycles to get out of the initialization, and I assume it will also be shifting left. The few 18z models I've seen have now shifted left of the prior runs.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

i didnt say you had another intention. and i said, it could be correct. then i say, iffy. which it obviously is. dont have to be so defensive. youre talking about the 2 models with no long range reliability. so your point is taken, and we shall see.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

who ever said GFS, if someone did o.k. but i certainly didnt

[CFLCaneWatcher]

I hope that all of you people I disagree with who want Ivan in your location get what you wish. I hope that Ivan hits at alamaba coast and just rides the coast line all the way across to texas and turns south down the coast. After Frances coming into florida and then into georgia I am so tireed of all this rain. The stress of tornado warnings, 11 inches of rain in areas with already saturated ground and wind that seems to bring down trees everytime a gust comes through is not fun at all. You people I disagree with can have the next 240 Hurricanes for all i care. Maybe it will keep some of you people I disagree with from wanting it to hit your area.


No reason to be so mean and call others names here. We understand that you are scared. Shoot, at my house, besides the 14" of rain this weekend add in the rain since first week of August and in the past month we have had 29". And yes multiple Tornado warnings. I also went through the February 1998 touchdown of (7) F4 Tornados all around me. (Within 4 miles) Have also been through all of the hurricanes since. We don't have much control over Mother Nature. We must accept what we cannot change.

It's fine to be scared just don't go blowing your attitude over everyone else.

Thanks

[PurdueWx80]

who ever said GFS, if someone did o.k. but i certainly didnt

Sorry, I wasn't implying that you did. I was just throwing in my 2 cents about the GFS, rather than putting it in another post.