5pm NHC same track as before... Discussion

[c5Camille]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... _5day.html

[c5Camille]

Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 22


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 07, 2004



an Air Force reconnaissance plane just measured a pressure of 956 mb
with a drop and 955 mb extrapolated from 700 mb. It also measured
118 knots at flight level and a closed eyewall of 14 nmi diameter.
T-numbers remain at 5.5 on the Dvorak scale. Initial intensity is
105 knots. SHIPS model indicate that the shear will remain low over
the central and western Caribbean. Global models appear to show a
favorable upper-level environment for strengthening. In
addition...Ivan is expected to reach the western Caribbean Sea
where there is an area of high ocean heat content...high octane gas
for hurricanes...which could add to the intensification. Ivan
could become stronger than forecast. Indications are that there
will be a very dangerous hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea...western Cuba or southeastern Gulf of Mexico in five days.

There has been no change in the steering and Ivan is still moving
toward the west or 280 degrees at 16 knots. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next 3 days. Thereafter...the forecast
becomes uncertain. Global models continue to develop a trough over
the central United States and the Gulf of Mexico. This trough is
forecast to erode the ridge leaving a large area of weak steering
currents in the northwestern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. By then...the hurricane could move north over western Cuba
and South Florida as indicated by the GFS...the UK and NOGAPS...or
continue on a slow west-northwest track as indicated by the GFDL
and the FSU superensemble. The latter assumes that the trough in
the Gulf of Mexico will not be strong enough to steer the hurricane
northward...and that there will be enough ridging to steer the
hurricane toward western Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico. The official
forecast is in agreement with the latter option biased toward the
consensus.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 07/2100z 12.0n 62.0w 105 kt
12hr VT 08/0600z 12.5n 64.5w 115 kt
24hr VT 08/1800z 13.5n 67.7w 120 kt
36hr VT 09/0600z 14.7n 70.7w 120 kt
48hr VT 09/1800z 16.0n 73.5w 120 kt
72hr VT 10/1800z 18.0n 77.5w 120 kt
96hr VT 11/1800z 20.0n 81.0w 120 kt
120hr VT 12/1800z 23.0n 84.0w 120 kt

[ericinmia]

Poor poor avila... he had to choose between his favorites which were splitting him...
Lets see what stewart or beven say later...
-Eric

He mentioned the tear in the two models... and how he choose the gfdl...

[Canelaw99]

Yeah, I have a feeling some of the other forecasters would've chosen the previous rather than the latter, IMO....

[Hurricane Cheese]

"High octane gas for hurricanes"

Boy Ivan sure has a "Camille, Gilbert and Charley" air to him...although it's still a long time out.


But this last statement should get ALL our atentions...


"Indications are that there will be a very dangerous hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea...western Cuba or southeastern Gulf of Mexico in five days." - Avila

[Stormcenter]

I know it's STILL early but if by tomorrow morning
the NHC still has the same (unlikely) general track then
I would start getting a little concerned along the Northern Central
and Eastern GOM. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[MWatkins]

When your forecast justifiation goes against 3 proven global models...and sticks with the GFDL and the FSU Superensemble...you are treading on very thin ice indeed. He may be right...but I don't remember a time recently that the 3 global models were ignored when it came to the steering layer and the GFDL was used for that.

Oh well...we'll see what happens. To put it into perspective...I'm the one on my home couputer and they have all sorts of fancy planes and models and equiment that I don't...so they must be seeing something that I'm not seeing. Plain and simple.

MW

[c5Camille]

this has DANGER written all over it...
it's forcast to stay CAT 4 for a number
of days...

[ericinmia]

When your forecast justifiation goes against 3 proven global models...and sticks with the GFDL and the FSU Superensemble...you are treading on very thin ice indeed. He may be right...but I don't remember a time recently that the 3 global models were ignored when it came to the steering layer and the GFDL was used for that.

Oh well...we'll see what happens. To put it into perspective...I'm the one on my home couputer and they have all sorts of fancy planes and models and equiment that I don't...so they must be seeing something that I'm not seeing. Plain and simple.

MW

lol, or at least we hope!
haha
-Eric

[Canelaw99]

I agree with ya MW....isn't Avila the one who was generally mistaken about Frances though...????

[ericinmia]

I agree with ya MW....isn't Avila the one who was generally mistaken about Frances though...????

lol, yeah he kept turning it, and doing all types of strange things that the other forecasters would correct when they came up... Stewart even shot a jab at avila in one of his discussions.
-Eric

[flair]

I wish they would put Avila on the graveyard shift. Stacy Stewart puts out a great forecast early in the AM, only to have Avila eff it all up in the afternoon, just in time for the 5 pm news. Beven and Stewart have to constantly change his forecasts.

[c5Camille]

there is PLENTY of time for corrections...
5 days out is a tough forcast...

[ColinD]

I thought the "official forecast" was reached as the result of a meeting between the forecasters. Correct or not?

[NorthGaWeather]

I kind of agree with Avila, I can't believe I said that but I'm in more agreement with a track across Western Cuba into the Central Gulf then Northward towards the MS/AL or FL Panhandle. I've heard from several people who go over the model stats that the FSU SE is one of the more accurate models in the 3-7 day time period and it showed a Vero Beach landfall exiting North of Tampa and then into the Big Bend (which Frances followed very closely) about 3 days before Frances made landfall.

[ericinmia]

I wish they would put Avila on the graveyard shift. Stacy Stewart puts out a great forecast early in the AM, only to have Avila eff it all up in the afternoon, just in time for the 5 pm news. Beven and Stewart have to constantly change his forecasts.

I agree completely... i wish avila would not hug the models so much but would explain and go out on a limb more. He seems to follow the FSU superensemble, and gfdl religously... if they pointed in a u-turn back to africa through other tropical systems... i bet he would forecast it to occur.
lol
-Eric <-- "getting very tired of Avila"

[ericinmia]

I kind of agree with Avila, I can't believe I said that but I in more agreement with a track across Western Cuba into the Central Gulf then Northward towards the MS/AL or FL Panhandle. I've heard from several people who go over the model stats that the FSU SE is one of the more accurate models in the 3-7 day time period and it showed a Vero Beach landfall exiting North of Tampa and then into the Big Bend (which Frances followed evry closely) about 3 days before Frances made landfall.

At that point all the models were forecasting the same thing generally. Very good consensus.
-Eric

[Fire in the Sky]

I'm as far away from a meteorologist as it gets, but, it seems to me the way Ivan is tracking, and generally watching the existing systems, it would be hard not to project this into the GOM. Where it would go once it hits those waters will certainly be anyones guess at this point, depending on where it goes in, etc. I hope it doesn't decide to shoot north into Florida, but I also am not wanting a major strike in Texas (or anywhere on the US GOM coastline).. I am certainly keeping a watchful eye open.
Mark

[Stormcenter]

When your forecast justifiation goes against 3 proven global models...and sticks with the GFDL and the FSU Superensemble...you are treading on very thin ice indeed. He may be right...but I don't remember a time recently that the 3 global models were ignored when it came to the steering layer and the GFDL was used for that.

Oh well...we'll see what happens. To put it into perspective...I'm the one on my home couputer and they have all sorts of fancy planes and models and equiment that I don't...so they must be seeing something that I'm not seeing. Plain and simple.

MW

Mike I think he is putting alot of weight on how well FSU Superensemble did with Frances. It is seeing the same thing the GDFL is. I'm not a great believer of the models used to forecast tropical systems so I'm not going to defend or argue either way.
I believe Ivan has the "potential" to cause alot more death and destruction than Charly or Frances combined if it comes in as a cat. 5 into somewhere along the US mainland. I still fear it will miss Cuba and enter the GOM via the Yucatan Channel.

[ericinmia]

Even FSU consensus puts this thing into South-west Florida eventually... why did avila leave that out.... The NHC track does not reflect that semi-sharp turn into florida.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/com ... 12/M6.html

Out of ALL the models there, the ony two not taking it into florida in the near term are the canadian and the gfdl. I don't have much faith at all in the canadian, abut the gfdl has been bouncing around lately with no grasp on this storm, thus i have no trust in it either.
-Eric