5pm NHC same track as before... Discussion

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NorthGaWeather

#21 Postby NorthGaWeather » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:07 pm

3-4 days before? I seem to remember the SC/NC bandwagon pretty heavily.
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Stormcenter
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#22 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:08 pm

ColinD wrote:I thought the "official forecast" was reached as the result of a meeting between the forecasters. Correct or not?


Yes it is so I think attacks are unjustified.
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NorthGaWeather

#23 Postby NorthGaWeather » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:10 pm

Yeah they do meet and go over the forecast.
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ericinmia
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#24 Postby ericinmia » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:12 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
ColinD wrote:I thought the "official forecast" was reached as the result of a meeting between the forecasters. Correct or not?


Yes it is so I think attacks are unjustified.


They do not necissarily all agree upon the final outcome. This is seen quiet often when the forecasters correct eachother when their forecast arrives. They also many times state they saw this happening all the while. If they had a consensus forecast with input, and guidance from all the fcorecasters would this happen... no
-Eric
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c5Camille

#25 Postby c5Camille » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:18 pm

you would hope that they have a pretty good working relationship...
i bet it's much better than suggested here...
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Stormcenter
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#26 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:18 pm

ericinmia wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
ColinD wrote:I thought the "official forecast" was reached as the result of a meeting between the forecasters. Correct or not?


Yes it is so I think attacks are unjustified.


They do not necissarily all agree upon the final outcome. This is seen quiet often when the forecasters correct eachother when their forecast arrives. They also many times state they saw this happening all the while. If they had a consensus forecast with input, and guidance from all the fcorecasters would this happen... no
-Eric


The only thing Avila is responsible for is the wording of the forecast
discussion the actual forecast is done jointly with all the head forecasters at the NHC. So again I think Avila is getting ripped for nothing. If you want to rip somebody for the forecast then it should be directed at the NHC as a whole not an individual at the NHC. By the way I am NOT related to Avila. :lol:
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#27 Postby AlabamaDave » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:18 pm

I take intensity forecasts with a grain of salt. Yes, this thing could be 120 kts in the NW Caribbean, but it could just as easily be a Cat-1. I think TPC does really well with its forecast tracks.
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ColinD
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#28 Postby ColinD » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:18 pm

ericinmia wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
ColinD wrote:I thought the "official forecast" was reached as the result of a meeting between the forecasters. Correct or not?


Yes it is so I think attacks are unjustified.


They do not necissarily all agree upon the final outcome. This is seen quiet often when the forecasters correct eachother when their forecast arrives. They also many times state they saw this happening all the while. If they had a consensus forecast with input, and guidance from all the fcorecasters would this happen... no
-Eric


So who makes the final decision? The forecaster who writes the next discussion, the director, the "head forecaster"? One would think that there would be a hierarchy and a final decision-maker.
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c5Camille

#29 Postby c5Camille » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:19 pm

well said Stormcenter!
i agree 100%
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#30 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:22 pm

"High Octane"

Holy Crap,folks! :eek: :eek: :eek:

We could potentially be looking at a cat 5 in the Gulf
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Derek Ortt

#31 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:29 pm

The only global that I have any faith in is the Canadian, which has been farther south than the others (what a big surprise), it was also the only model that showed the formation of frances 3 days in advance (again, what a surprise), and also was consistent in Frances moving into the GOM (yet another surprise). I'll take the Canadian anyday and leave the GFS to be GFS
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Derek Ortt

#32 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:30 pm

The one who writes the forecast, is the one who makes the forecast. There is not really any team of forecasters. Whoever is the hurricane specialist on duty at the time is the one responsible for making the forecast
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Collier Canetracker
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#33 Postby Collier Canetracker » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:41 pm

What is the abbreviation for the Canadian model?
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Stormcenter
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#34 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:42 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:The one who writes the forecast, is the one who makes the forecast. There is not really any team of forecasters. Whoever is the hurricane specialist on duty at the time is the one responsible for making the forecast


Derek I'm not doubting you but can you confirm this? I thought I heard differently on CNN (I think could have been Fox) during Charly when asked the same question to a rep of the NHC concerning forecasting where and how strong Charly would be before making landfall on the Florida west coast. Again I'm not doubting you info. You would know better than I. Thanks!
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ericinmia
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#35 Postby ericinmia » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:42 pm

Collier Canetracker wrote:What is the abbreviation for the Canadian model?

"cmc"

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs

I believe...
-Eric
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PurdueWx80
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#36 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:44 pm

GEM is another abbreviation for the global model.
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Derek Ortt

#37 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:45 pm

I've heard talks by forecasters and during those talks, they have made zero mention that it is a team of forecasts, but instead, the indications I have received are that the official forecast is the forecast of the forecaster on duty. All of NHC stands by that forecast; however
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Collier Canetracker
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#38 Postby Collier Canetracker » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:47 pm

Are the CMC and GEM the same thing? Sorry for being a "policy wonk"....just trying to learn.
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#39 Postby Lindaloo » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:51 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:The only global that I have any faith in is the Canadian


You need to find another one for guidance then. :lol: :P
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#40 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:03 pm

Oh Joy. Just get my power back up after two days from Frances and the first link I click on has another major hurricane tracking over my house!

Feel like Wile Coyote after he survives the fall into the canyon but realizes there is still an anvil coming down on top of him.
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