18Z GFS - Straight to Haiti???

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x-y-no
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#21 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:33 pm

FungusMoldlyColdcuts wrote:the weakness here is, the GFS cant get a handle on the strength of the ridge and the influence of the trough. Much like last time, the GFS will undergo some serious differences with the amplitude of the ridge in the atlantic, the trough in the east CONUS and the shortwave energy moving through canada towards the central/east US. I hope this helped you grasp the weakness


Gee, thanks for that deep insight. :roll:

Go back and look at my posts as long as I've been here and you'll see me talking about the difficulties the GFS has with the strength of ridges and where I think it typically gets things wrong, etc. etc. etc.

Tell you what ... why don't we agree not to post at each other and I won't have cause to get annoyed with your condecending attitude.
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#22 Postby TS Zack » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:33 pm

Yucatan! Good possibility if this thing doesn't SLOW DOWN!
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#23 Postby Derecho » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:37 pm

ericinmia wrote:The rest of the GFS was finally uploaded...
It now shows the storm recurving out over the bahamas into the atlantic, heading NE...
This should definately throw a wrench into some of the models reliant on it.


You didnt' look at the whole run. It comes back and hits Maryland/Delaware in 10 days (not that that's relevant, just that it does not show a US miss.)
Last edited by Derecho on Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#24 Postby ericinmia » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:39 pm

no i saw it, but i discredit that happening. Earlier the gfs had hiccups sending it in a box zig-zag pattern throughout the eastern seaboard starting in the carolina's... If the GFS continues to show this as a trend then i will begin to give it credince. That is a very long time away though, so we will have ample time to predict...
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#25 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:44 pm

Not that this is likely to happen, but it is possible to have a near miss w/ recurvature, only to be felt by the next ridge and head back west. I prefer not to trust the GFS right now (or ever again?).
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FungusMoldlyColdcuts

#26 Postby FungusMoldlyColdcuts » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:33 pm

x-y-no wrote:
FungusMoldlyColdcuts wrote:the weakness here is, the GFS cant get a handle on the strength of the ridge and the influence of the trough. Much like last time, the GFS will undergo some serious differences with the amplitude of the ridge in the atlantic, the trough in the east CONUS and the shortwave energy moving through canada towards the central/east US. I hope this helped you grasp the weakness


Gee, thanks for that deep insight. :roll:

Go back and look at my posts as long as I've been here and you'll see me talking about the difficulties the GFS has with the strength of ridges and where I think it typically gets things wrong, etc. etc. etc.

Tell you what ... why don't we agree not to post at each other and I won't have cause to get annoyed with your condecending attitude.


I dont want to look at your track record. I am simply answering your question. if you dont like it, dont respond. i was only trying to help. that is the last time I will try to help you, that is for certain.
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FungusMoldlyColdcuts

#27 Postby FungusMoldlyColdcuts » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:36 pm

ericinmia wrote:no i saw it, but i discredit that happening. Earlier the gfs had hiccups sending it in a box zig-zag pattern throughout the eastern seaboard starting in the carolina's... If the GFS continues to show this as a trend then i will begin to give it credince. That is a very long time away though, so we will have ample time to predict...



I agree. there is very little reliability with the GFS. I would put my money on the UKMet and POSSIBLY the GFS in about 2 days. NOGAPS depending on its agreement with synoptics of upstream events leading up to 48 hours. Right now, we are in agreement that the GFS are once again completely clueless :)
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#28 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:42 pm

FungusMoldlyColdcuts wrote:
ericinmia wrote:no i saw it, but i discredit that happening. Earlier the gfs had hiccups sending it in a box zig-zag pattern throughout the eastern seaboard starting in the carolina's... If the GFS continues to show this as a trend then i will begin to give it credince. That is a very long time away though, so we will have ample time to predict...



I agree. there is very little reliability with the GFS. I would put my money on the UKMet and POSSIBLY the GFS in about 2 days. NOGAPS depending on its agreement with synoptics of upstream events leading up to 48 hours. Right now, we are in agreement that the GFS are once again completely clueless :)


GFS was the only model to consistantly bring Frances close to the Florida and then almost stall it. Even the NHC dismissed this scenario until it happened.
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#29 Postby FritzPaul » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:50 pm

Showing that Hazel path and GFS path is going to bring NCWeatherWizard and Hurricane_Lover out of the closet again.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
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CFLCaneWatcher
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I don't see it...

#30 Postby CFLCaneWatcher » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:51 pm

I don't see it turning hard enough to the north to hit Haitii. I place it at the Isle of Youth with litle to decapitate it from there.
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#31 Postby Javlin » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:53 pm

I agree Fungus the GFS seems lately to always want to throw things to the N.How many days did the NHC sit on that track N into SC and NC before they threw it out.The forcast track from the NHC this afternoon was S of Cuba when all the other models except the GFDL took it N.That their in part tells me that the NHC are starting to doubt the quality of the GFS model.
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#32 Postby WeatherNLU » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:55 pm

Sorry, I don't buy the GFS, it's been terrible lately.
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FungusMoldlyColdcuts

#33 Postby FungusMoldlyColdcuts » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:35 pm

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:
FungusMoldlyColdcuts wrote:
ericinmia wrote:no i saw it, but i discredit that happening. Earlier the gfs had hiccups sending it in a box zig-zag pattern throughout the eastern seaboard starting in the carolina's... If the GFS continues to show this as a trend then i will begin to give it credince. That is a very long time away though, so we will have ample time to predict...



I agree. there is very little reliability with the GFS. I would put my money on the UKMet and POSSIBLY the GFS in about 2 days. NOGAPS depending on its agreement with synoptics of upstream events leading up to 48 hours. Right now, we are in agreement that the GFS are once again completely clueless :)


GFS was the only model to consistantly bring Frances close to the Florida and then almost stall it. Even the NHC dismissed this scenario until it happened.



right. and i was sayign that in stormchat about 5 days ago. you probably learned that from me. I am talking synoptically.
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FungusMoldlyColdcuts

#34 Postby FungusMoldlyColdcuts » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:37 pm

casper wrote:I agree Fungus the GFS seems lately to always want to throw things to the N.How many days did the NHC sit on that track N into SC and NC before they threw it out.The forcast track from the NHC this afternoon was S of Cuba when all the other models except the GFDL took it N.That their in part tells me that the NHC are starting to doubt the quality of the GFS model.


right on. GFS is not reliable, in itself, predicting tropical system tracks. sure the upstream events and setup might be correct, but the model DOES NOT show the correct initialization and movement of the system. thats just how it is
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