5 PM=12.0-62.0w 120 mph moving 280,no change in NHC track

[cycloneye]

Weather Center.
Click here for more tropical weather information.

** WTNT24 KNHC 072047 ***
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
2100Z TUE SEP 07 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT...THE
GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR TOBAGO HAS BEEN
DONGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...
AND ST. LUCIA...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BONAIRE...CURACAO AND ARUBA.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z..THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 62.0W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 25SW 100NW.
34 KT.......140NE 125SE 30SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 62.0W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 61.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 15SE 0SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 100NW.
34 KT...140NE 125SE 30SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.5N 67.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 100NW.
34 KT...140NE 125SE 30SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.7N 70.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 15SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 50SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 25SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 75SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 20.0N 81.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 62.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[alicia-w]

swell.

but we're ready. we're gonna stay packed so all we have to do is put the shutters up, 90 minutes, tops, and load up the car and the truck and we're gone....

[cycloneye]

Gomers I think you should start preparations because this will pass 82w not what some global models said this afternoon that it would not pass that longitud.

[canegrl04]

It looks like they finally got a steady fix on where Ivan will eventually be going.

[rainstorm]

yucatan

[zoeyann]

cycloneye- I can not really read the data well, but your comment to the GOMERS has got me curious. I'm in Louisiana. Dose it look like we should maybe make some preparations. I trust the opinions given on this board, and I have the normal stuff covered that should be done, but I have been wondering if maybe I should take care of some last minute food and gas type stuff. Sorry for the lame question.

[cycloneye]

cycloneye- I can not really read the data well, but your comment to the GOMERS has got me curious. I'm in Louisiana. Dose it look like we should maybe make some preparations. I trust the opinions given on this board, and I have the normal stuff covered that should be done, but I have been wondering if maybe I should take care of some last minute food and gas type stuff. Sorry for the lame question.

It is far yet from the GOM to start full preparations but you can begin to make inventary of all the important things just in case the threat increases and hurricane watches and warnings go up in that area.It is better to be prepared and if it does not go to your area well anyway you did the right thing.

[Agua]

yucatan

The way its bookin' it W, it looks that way now.

[SootyTern]

zoeyann-I would recommend you top off your tank and get fully stocked on non-perishable food and bottled water now if you haven't already. You can always use that kind of stuff even if the 'cane goes somewhere else. This is after watching all our local stores and gas stations run out of the stuff you need in the days before Frances approached. I was very glad I had slowly been stashing extra canned food and keeping my tank more than half full long before Frances appeared on the scene.

[rainstorm]

my best estimate is ivan will go over the yucatan, and may hit as a cat5, then either head into mexico, nw to texas, or north to la, depending on the pattern at that time

[PurdueWx80]

Good lord - this thing will definitely be a Cat 4 by 11 (maybe even at the 8 p.m. update). The eye has become very clear and the surrounding cloudtops continue to cool. I would've sworn that the continent would have weakened Ivan - perhaps it will once more of the feeder bands are eating up air from the continent.

[Anonymous]

Hopefully, it will cross Cuba...and slowly... so the funk of Castro will lead Ivan to a long, slow, misarable death

[CFL]

If I understand the NHC's discussion it looks to me like Louisiana eastward would have the greatest risk.

[zoeyann]

Thanks cycloneye and SootyTern for your honest and thoughtful responses. I just don't want to end up going without because I waited too long.

[MWatkins]

Looking at the pressure patterns in the 18Z GFS the GFDL is probably going to end up to the right of the 12Z model.

Let's see...should be out any sec.

MW