will the track shift to the right at 11?

[wzrgirl1]

With the new model trends do you think the track will shift slightly to the right at 11.......or basically stay the same?

[mf_dolphin]

Due to the more southerly current position I would expect a shift to the left if anything.

[lilbump3000]

Most likely it will shift, but if they do shift it i dont know why because to me all the models seems like garbage right now. But since the models have shifted, they going to shift it. Now dont forget all the models have shifted because the big and mighty GFS has shifted.

[PurdueWx80]

Well we are only seeing a few models - the NHC has been going along with the FSU superensemble which we can't see. I would assume that they'll take a look at the global 00Z models that are in by 11 (not many) and the superensemble, rather than the erratic tracks of the BAM and other models.

[ColdFront77]

I don't believe the southerly current position of a tropical cyclone has much to do with forecast models shifting more
to the right. The variability of the features around systems (in this case Ivan) is important than the low latitude.

[Stormcenter]

Yes I think they will shift the track eastward at 11pm.

But doesn't mean they won't shift it back westward tomorrow
if Ivan continues to quickly track westward.

[Brent]

If they did shift it right, it was just BARELY.

[Canelaw99]

Doesn't seem like a correct track based on the 11pm discussion though

[chris_fit]

shift right no.... shift towards the direction of FL yes

[Stormcenter]

Doesn't seem like a correct track based on the 11pm discussion though

I thought EXACT same thing. I don't buy the forward speed of 17mph.
She looks to moving at 20mph. I would be concerned if I lived in Central America.

[CFLCaneWatcher]

No offence but WHY are you a moderator on here???? Your opinions are sooooooooooooooooo screwed up! Maybe find another web site that you mesh with. It sure isn't Storm 2K. Your opinions are not doing anybody any good what so ever. Thanks for trying but you are a LOSER here.

[air360]

CFLCaneWatcher who are you talking to?

[dhweather]

No offence but WHY are you a moderator on here???? Your opinions are sooooooooooooooooo screwed up! Maybe find another web site that you mesh with. It sure isn't Storm 2K. Your opinions are not doing anybody any good what so ever. Thanks for trying but you are a LOSER here.

No need for this type of comment.

[wzrgirl1]

who are you talking to?

[air360]

oh i see it in your subject line now...
ok...well....if you dont like someone....you dont have to go mouthing off about it...he is obviously a moderator for a good reason...possibly unknown to you. so unless you have i would say...10k+ posts and have earned a respectable position on this board...dont bother wasting your time mouthing off..it wont get you anywhere

[air360]

wzrgirl1..he is talking to mf_dolphin...you can see it in his post under the subject line next to the post time...i didnt see it at first myself:)

[NateFLA]

Charley:


Ivan:



Enough to make SFL sick!

[CourierPR]

According to some of the posts, one might think that the NHC pulls its forecast tracks out of a hat instead of basing them on sound meteorological science.

[air360]

...or they throw darts at a board to see which model to follow each time...

[NateFLA]

Guys, guys... its paper rock scissors! Elimination style!