GFS and GFDL IS full of crap

[mobilebay]

I agree with D. Ortt the GFS and its spinnoffs have become totally unreliable. Here is just one example. During frances it continued to show a Noreaster looking track when all other models took it into Florida.Then finally it did something correct it actually called for the stall near the Bahamas. However after that it continued to be LEFT of track right up to landfall. A full degree to the left. Then there's the GFDL who called for landfall near the Jacksonville for days. Then for no reason wen't totaly left and called for landfall near mobile. Interesting to note that we did get a gentle breeze yesturday though, as Frances passed about THREE HUNDRED MILES to our EAST. This is just one storm. They are already jumping all over the map with Frances. Sorry but I will stick with the NOGAPS, UKMET, CMC, and the Rodney Dangerfield of Models the Euro.

[FritzPaul]

This is what they should do with all the models:

1) Put them all into one file folder.

2) Navigate into that file folder through a terminal window.

3) Type del *.* then <Return>

4) When window pops up that says "Are you sure you want to delete all files":

5) Click on the "OK" button

[mobilebay]

This is what they should do with all the models:

1) Put them all into one file folder.

2) Navigate into that file folder through a terminal window.

3) Type del *.* then <Return>

4) When window pops up that says "Are you sure you want to delete all files":

5) Click on the "OK" button

Agree. However, maybe I was blind but it seems like the GFS was alot better in years past. I remember when the GFDL was the GOD model.

[Scott_inVA]

I agree with D. Ortt the GFS and its spinnoffs have become totally unreliable. Here is just one example. During frances it continued to show a Noreaster looking track when all other models took it into Florida.Then finally it did something correct it actually called for the stall near the Bahamas. However after that it continued to be LEFT of track right up to landfall. A full degree to the left. Then there's the GFDL who called for landfall near the Jacksonville for days. Then for no reason wen't totaly left and called for landfall near mobile. Interesting to note that we did get a gentle breeze yesturday though, as Frances passed about THREE HUNDRED MILES to our EAST. This is just one storm. They are already jumping all over the map with Frances. Sorry but I will stick with the NOGAPS, UKMET, CMC, and the Rodney Dangerfield of Models the Euro.

NOGAPS and UKie hocked lougies with Frances. Just dreadful.

GFS gets ripped b/c is runs 4X/day (few others do the same) and goes out to 384 hours. Nothing else public does long range. I'm NOT taking up for the GFS b/c if gets jumpy in the medium range but particularly since 02, it has been very good inside of 72 hours...which is really all that matters.

Can't recall the last day I didn't study the EC, but its public release is so delayed it is rendered useless in the near term, offers little analytical data to review, jumps in 24 hour increments and you ain't gonna find Day 11 publicly on the Internet. If the EC ran as often and as far as the GFS, everyone would be riping it a new one every 6 hours. Guarandamntee it.

FWIW, the SREF provides an excellent overview of what's upstream over CONUS. Very helpful in seeing what's happening w/models in the tropics.

Scott

[flyingphish]

Duhhh..Hate to sound like I know a bit. But in D'orrts defence, you were on the Westvside of an already diminished Cat 2. What are you hoping for up in Mobile ? I think Dorrt does a fair job and I appreciate the time he or she puts into the weather synopsis.