Forecaster Stewart

[quickychick]

Stewart writes some awesome discussions, like today's (Wed) 5 AM one--I always feel smarter after reading his. He could be/should be a teacher when it's all said and done.

Click for a nice but brief interview with Stewart

-qc (was that too fangirly?)

tags suck.

[Matthew5]

My notes...

To note is over the last few hours that upper low to the west of the hurricane. Is starting to cut off the western Quads outflow. The system has also becomed slightly less Oreganized because of the eywall replacement(Which he did talk about)...The shear is up 10 knots around/over the system. Just to the west of the system is 20 knot shear by cimss. Which also shows this shear increasing at the same time. So there is a increasly unfavable upper level enviroment over the next 24 to 36 hours as the tropical cyclone moves to the west/west-northwest. The waters under this system(The laten heat for the hurricane)is going to go through a area of less energy to feed the tropcial cyclone. I expect more to the left of the nhc track. More in line with the Cmc just left of the new ukmet. The thing to note is the Ecmwf run 13 runs with Frances to its hard not to went to use it. While at the same time the Gfs/Gfdl(Which the Gfdl at the 06z shows a landfall on the coast of Florida or close to a landfall in Florida)The Gfdl/Gfs did fairly poorly out over 72 hours with Frances. While doing a good job with in the first 12 to 48 hour time frame. The tropical cyclone as it moves into the western Gulf of Mexico should find the warmest water temperatures in the Atlantic basin. Which by that time the upper level low could very well be out.

[mobilebay]

My notes...

To note is over the last few hours that upper low to the west of the hurricane. Is starting to cut off the western Quads outflow. The system has also becomed slightly less Oreganized because of the eywall replacement(Which he did talk about)...The shear is up 10 knots around/over the system. Just to the west of the system is 20 knot shear by cimss. Which also shows this shear increasing at the same time. So there is a increasly unfavable upper level enviroment over the next 24 to 36 hours as the tropical cyclone moves to the west/west-northwest. The waters under this system(The laten heat for the hurricane)is going to go through a area of less energy to feed the tropcial cyclone. I expect more to the left of the nhc track. More in line with the Cmc just left of the new ukmet. The thing to note is the Ecmwf run 13 runs with Frances to its hard not to went to use it. While at the same time the Gfs/Gfdl(Which the Gfdl at the 06z shows a landfall on the coast of Florida or close to a landfall in Florida)The Gfdl/Gfs did fairly poorly out over 72 hours with Frances. While doing a good job with in the first 12 to 48 hour time frame. The tropical cyclone as it moves into the western Gulf of Mexico should find the warmest water temperatures in the Atlantic basin. Which by that time the upper level low could very well be out.

AGREE 100%. As I posted earlier the ULL is currently affecting Ivan.

[mobilebay]

All that Mr. Stewart said was true about the Trough coming down and eroding the ridge. However, what he failed to mention is the speed. The CMC ,NOGAPS, UKMET are pretty fast with Ivan. Thus allowing Ivan to get further west before turning north. All the Models agree on the turn it's just when.

[FritzPaul]

Hey QC for convienance: To post a link

Go to the site you want to link and highlight the URL in the address bar.

Then left-click on Edit and select copy.

When you're ready to post the link, left-click Edit again and this time select paste.

The link will be created were the cursor was.

[quickychick]

Hi Fritz--I appreciate the advice. My problem is that whenever I start a new topic the BBCode is by default disabled...while my tags are correct, I always forget to enable the BBCode before I submit the post, then I have to go back and edit and did I mention I'm posting in the dark and another board I post on uses the [ link ] format instead of [ url ] format and I forget what board I'm on and get those flipped sometimes, too?

You should be able to click on the text "Click here for a link to..." in the original post and go to the site I linked, as the URL is imbedded in BBCode.

I should just go back to bed,

[FritzPaul]

OK, disreguard my post. You definitely know IT formats.

[southerngale]

Hi Fritz--I appreciate the advice. My problem is that whenever I start a new topic the BBCode is by default disabled...while my tags are correct, I always forget to enable the BBCode before I submit the post, then I have to go back and edit and did I mention I'm posting in the dark and another board I post on uses the [ link ] format instead of [ url ] format and I forget where I am sometimes, too?

You should be able to click on the text "Click here for a link to..." in the original post and go to the site I linked, as the URL is imbedded in BBCode.

I should just go back to bed,

Do you want your BBCode disabled by default?

[quickychick]

Hi southerngale,

No, I thought I'd fixed it in my profile and preferences but I guess not?

[southerngale]

It should be fixed now.

[Thunder44]

I like to see a picture of Stewart.

[quickychick]

Oh, thank you thank you. I thought 'always enabled' meant always enabled, but it probably means 'always addled' like me.

Fritz and southerngale get two thumbs and a big toe up from the QC!

So yes, back to Stewart...there's some bio info in the interview link, but I'd love to know more about the backgrounds of all the forecasters.

[FritzPaul]

I should just go back to bed,

I don't think I'll be happy till I read 4 consecutive discussions w/o getting any sleep.

[quickychick]

I should just go back to bed, :P

I don't think I'll be happy till I read 4 consecutive discussions w/o getting any sleep. :lol:

Seriously. Reading this board has eaten into my dinner time, sleep time, workout time....soon I will become one with the computer chair and the mouse.

[jlauderdal]

I like to see a picture of Stewart.

a stacy stewart groupie huh..see link, da man is about 1/2 way down the page with gray hair.

http://www.fiu.edu/orgs/w4ehw/w4ehw-nhc-conf-2003.htm

[quickychick]

Heh, he looks like he could kick some arse--you can definitely see the military in him.

[southerngale]

You're welcome quickychick.

[bev]

I've become a Stewart groupie too. I love it when I know the next discussion is coming from him. It means we will actually have a discussion. Avilla just repeats the public advisory for the most part.

-Bev

[AussieMark]

Stewart writes the best Discussions I get excited when he is writing the next one.

Avila points out the obvious.

The Hurricane is morving over water

[LaBreeze]

Looks like the turn will be sooner rather than later.