Something to be said for history

[PTPatrick]

Many of the models appear to want to make Frances a Charley hit on the west coast of FL. Now I know this is a crazy season, BUT what are the odds that 2 category 4 hurricanes would strike any 150 mile stretch of the US coast in the same season, LET ALONE, the FL West coast which is one of the less likely places for a major can hit. Heck, what are the odds that there would ever be 2 cat 4 in the gulf period(I still think this one will happen) Not very good...Charley overcame the odds. Frances hitting FL was not a big odds breaker, but I digress. The moral of the story, I am still more worried for the northern gulf coast. I think there is enough writing on the wall at this point to suggest that future tracks will probably lead more toward the Panhandle and Louisiana.

[ColinD]

Before the season, the odds were low. Once Charley hit there the odds were much higher. Once a storm was in Ivan's position with the current synoptic situation the odds are quite reasonable.

It's like a coin flip. What are the chances of getting two heads in a row before you flip? 1 in 4. What are the odds of getting two heads in a row when the first flip was already a "heads"? Double that. 1 in 2.

[bev]

Hence the gambling maxim. "Never bet against the trend"

-Bev

[Sean in New Orleans]

Who knows the odds? We've only been tracking these systems closely for a little over 100 years. Who's to say that Florida hasn't been hit 10 times in a season over the course of history that we don't even know about---this is just the way nature's cards are falling this season. It's sad, but, a fact of life. Nothing with nature really surprises me. And we can't even say that Florida is a sure bet--this system is still a ways out. However, I'd bank on a Charley course repeat...It's sad, and terrible. However, people in these areas simply need to prepare, again, for the worst and when it's all said and done--either rebuild or move.

[BlizzardNole]

Remember the 20-30 year cycles we hear so much about. Terrible hurricane seasons in the 1950s-1960s, then relatively quiet from the 70s through mid 90s. Since the mid 90s, they say we've been in the "active" period, but one article I saw noted that we had been very lucky with respect to the low number of landfalling hurricanes since 1995. That luck just ran out.

[caneman]

Many of the models appear to want to make Frances a Charley hit on the west coast of FL. Now I know this is a crazy season, BUT what are the odds that 2 category 4 hurricanes would strike any 150 mile stretch of the US coast in the same season, LET ALONE, the FL West coast which is one of the less likely places for a major can hit. Heck, what are the odds that there would ever be 2 cat 4 in the gulf period(I still think this one will happen) Not very good...Charley overcame the odds. Frances hitting FL was not a big odds breaker, but I digress. The moral of the story, I am still more worried for the northern gulf coast. I think there is enough writing on the wall at this point to suggest that future tracks will probably lead more toward the Panhandle and Louisiana.

It is not as uncommon as you think. Yes, we've had a relatively quiet 20 or 30 years until recently. But there is a reason why Florida is the #1 hit state. Most people aren't old enough to recall just how often Florida got hit. History proves that Florida gets hit quite frequently by both major and minor alike. I encourage you to go back and review history. Flordia may now be back into the days of old.

[Stormcenter]

Many of the models appear to want to make Frances a Charley hit on the west coast of FL. Now I know this is a crazy season, BUT what are the odds that 2 category 4 hurricanes would strike any 150 mile stretch of the US coast in the same season, LET ALONE, the FL West coast which is one of the less likely places for a major can hit. Heck, what are the odds that there would ever be 2 cat 4 in the gulf period(I still think this one will happen) Not very good...Charley overcame the odds. Frances hitting FL was not a big odds breaker, but I digress. The moral of the story, I am still more worried for the northern gulf coast. I think there is enough writing on the wall at this point to suggest that future tracks will probably lead more toward the Panhandle and Louisiana.

I agree 100%.