Ivan Advisories

[AussieMark]

look at what Georges did to the Caribbean in 1998.

he was a category 3 at most during his 7 landfalls.

[Aquawind]

I simply don't like it I tell you..Lets talk about wobble instead..

[alicia-w]

another link for Caribbean SITREPs:

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2004/grenada.shtml

[cswitwer]

You've got an impressive site there, NCWW... and I hope to be able to speak and think about weather in an equally educated manner someday. Just on gut-feelings alone, I am more accurate than the local mets here in Charleston sometimes. If I get some more education, who know?

Keep up the good work.

[Lindaloo]

talking to people that understand is important. This is often hard when you are hit by a cat2 or flash flooding or something where the damage is very spotty. I know with Georges the worst damages were in a small area in southeast Jackson county and along a couple of the beaches in Jackson county. But for people outside these areas power was back in a day or so and structural damage was little. In the days after the storm it wasnt out of the ordinary to the "it wasnt that bad" kinda stuff from people that lived in those areas. Sort of makes you feel like, "oh, well, the damage to my house was just no big"

Not true. I sustained major structural damage to my home. I had power back within two days however. I helped the Red Cross bring food out to the people in Orange Grove, Pecan and Franklin Creek. I saw the damage first hand. If you ride out in Orange Grove to this day you can still see some of the damage.

There were alot of homes flooded with damage near the beach in Pascagoula. Last I checked we only had one beach in Jackson County. The house that sits on the west end of the beach had major damage. Chevron and Northrop Grumman had major damage. Chevron was shut down for almost two months after georges. One of the ladies that was helping clean up an office at Chevron told me there was a visible sign that a HUGE snake had been there. Possibly a swamp snake. Which get as big as the boa in most cases.

[storm4u]

Wow cant beleive hes only 16 but he does a great job so age doesnt really matter!!!! Im 18 and dont even kno a 1/4 of what he does about weather! Great Job Man!!

[dwinpcola]

Hang in their in the mtns. I travel there alot for hiking with the family. I have been there with a strom hit in 1994 but it dropped nothing like thereports of now. I hope everyone will be safe

dw

[robag]

Us folks in Key Largo are getting a bit antsy about the track. We have been spared many times in the 18 years I have been here. I have a bad feeling about this one.

[btsgmdad]

Just looked at the loop myself, definitely WNW.

[Pebbles]

Anyone heard anything re: Harlan/Corbin area? Is it being this affected too? My husband's family lives there and on a normal day the roads are scary let alone this.

WOW you must be family (wife to John L. here)!!!! Will check try to contact my bro in law and relay any info if I do. *try's to think hard of which family member moved to Georgia from Chicago and thinks she must be more outta the loop then she knew*

As for the roads....couldn't agree with you more and the coal truckx flying on the rear end of your car in bad weather makes me wanna crawl under the car and die of fear!

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

[Guest]

maybe Florida will be spared after all

[lurkerinthemidst]

Ok so now since he isn't saying its going to NC you are going to jump on him for his age? ( Not saying he ever did say it was but that is what the flaming ensued about before)
How childish is that?
He posted a GOOD report, isn't that what this is all about? Isn't weather basically an educated guess? You think you know what is going to happen but no one knows for sure. (some are a lot better than others and some just get lucky)
Then if he were to come on after Ivan had arrived and said " Hey look my thought was right" then everyone would be saying that he did it after the storm.

I thought this boards guidelines so to speak, was to educate and prepare people. But I guess if you do research and have become some what "educated" in weather ( no matter you age, location) you are no longer allowed to give your opinion.
The bottom line here is that people on this board have gotten SO critical of one another that it is crazy. This board has its own set of prejudice. It took an act of congress for someone just to have a discussion on the probabilities of Ivan going a different direction than what everyone has stated. All they wanted to know was why it was going to do that and why it wasn't. But if people can't ask questions then they can't be educated. Isn't THAT the motto of hits board is to educate?So then when someone thinks that they may have an opinion as to what this may do and want to cast their vote or idea now they are attacked for their age.

Man, I thank goodness we are not all in a room together because I am sure some of you would beat the heck of some of the others just for their opinions. And it isn't even about you! This is very sad! Oh and I am NOT a teenager, I am a mother to 2 teenagers and as a mother I would be proud. Think of all the other things a 16 yr old could be doing? Ok now I am mad and on my soap box. I had to come out of Lurking for this!

[alicia-w]

Excellent, as always, Derek. Many thanks.

[Derek Ortt]

that track does not spare florida

it has it headed toward the panhandle

[FritzPaul]

I saw in the stats forum NCWW is only 16yrs old.

So he's got to Know more than the rest of us. LOL

I would like to aplogize for any offense I may have caused.

I guess I was miffed at the forecasts he was making during the onset of Frances that were not qualified by anything other than speculation.

I am glad to see him qualifying his predictions now.

[skysummit]

Derek, I'm highly respecting your forecasts since you were so "right on" with the previous storms. Are you thinking the trough that's forecasted to build south will not come far enough south to turn Ivan into the eastern GOM?

[Ixolib]

At 26N, 86.7W at 120, what part of the northern Gulf Coast might be impacted? Does it appear evident that a trend NE - at that time - will be in effect, or should those of us west of the Panhandle consider this equally as they should?

[alicia-w]

maybe Florida will be spared after all

People always forget about us up here. Maybe we should be annexed by Alabama or something.

[Derek Ortt]

its not so much that there wont be a trough, its that the ridge appears to extend farther west than the models indicate