Avila with 2 scenarios

[cycloneye]

SATELLITE AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IVAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...FORCING IVAN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWEST
AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND ARE CURRENTLY
NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT...SOME RELIABLE
MODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER RELIABLE GROUP MOVE THE
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO
FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN
OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAY FIVE.

This will be a difficult hurricane to forecast in the long range because many factors may come into play such as more troughing in the GOM and a less ridging creating a weakness but the timing of all of this will be key to then forecast with more presicion where it will be headed after it crosses western cuba.The bottomline is anyone in the gulf coast and in Florida is not out of the woods at this time.