Ivan Advisories

[JPmia]

It's called catch up time for Florida.....unfortunately it is all during the same month

[bev]

Abaco in the Bahamas is in just as bad a shape with few resources there as well. Gov't infrastructure there is abominable.

[Guest]

that track does not spare florida

it has it headed toward the panhandle

I said maybe smart azz.

[clueless newbie]

It looks considerably better than a few hours ago.

Yes, unfortunately. In the morning he looked weakened, with clouded eye and the core separated from the outer convection. Recently, he looks as good as ever. On 14:45Z he looks menacing.

In the latest picture (15:15Z), the eye seems to become elliptic. Perhaps eyewall replacement cycle, perhaps he feels the pull north.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_m_loop.shtml

[TexasStooge]

PLEASE!! No more for Florida!

[Derek Ortt]

is there an ignore feature on these forums?

[Guest]

is there an ignore feature on these forums?

I wish

[~SirCane]

I'm afraid it's the Northern Gulf Coast's turn AKA Frederic, Elena, Camille, Georges, etc.

[Derek Ortt]

its moving about 280 right now, not quite wnw

a true wnw track is expected to occur quite soon though, possibly bringing this close to jamaica

[dhweather]

Derek, I used to like you.

[~SirCane]

That is what makes Ivan so scary. Looks like this will be yet another nerve wrecking week for all of us in the Gulf.

No kidding!

[golter]

NHC, had motion at 285. Which is what it appears to be doing to my untrained eye. It has its eye set on Jamaica.

[Jeremy]

I am supposed to travelling to Jamaica next week Sept 12 - 19, should I cancel my trip or do y'all think the isle will be spared?

Thanks,
Jeremy

[dhweather]

Maybe the FDA can pass out sedatives to all GOM residents?

[bayfred]

maybe Florida will be spared after all

People always forget about us up here. Maybe we should be annexed by Alabama or something.

It has been proposed (not entirely tongue-in-cheek) that the Mississppi Gulf coast, the Alabama Gulf coast and the Florida panhandle secede from their respective states and form a new state called "Gulf Coast". We played with this one time suggesting state birds, trees, flag design, etc. I can tell you right now that we on the Alabama Gulf coast would not be at all opposed to such an action.

[B-Bear]

Derek busts his arse on these forecasts, at the cost of precious sleep and, during Frances, at risk to his personal safety.

That alone merits our respect. But the fact that his forecasts have been so dead-on accurate is even further reason. You may not agree with his forecasts, but there is a respectful way to express that. Not only for Derek, but for others on this board.

I personally have a feeling that Ivan is going to track about half-way between the NHC and Derek's track--grazing Jamaica on its way by. But I'm an amateur. Derek is the guy that does this for a living, so I will respectfully watch events develop to see if I'm right rather than challenge the validity of his forecast.

[~SirCane]

It will be gone from Jamaica by then. Whether there will be anything to go to-who knows?

[x-y-no]

I am supposed to travelling to Jamaica next week Sept 12 - 19, should I cancel my trip or do y'all think the isle will be spared?

Thanks,
Jeremy

You'll know in a couple of days if Jamaica gets hit. I'd hold off on cancelling till then if you can.

[canegrl04]

Ivan is moving into warmer waters today,and is 140mph this morning