ANOTHER scenario....

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_m_loop.shtml

[PurdueWx80]

There have been 2 runs since this - so it isn't exactly a new scenario.

[~SirCane]

That doesn't look likely.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

would you mind posting the new scenario?? Thanks!

[krisj]

I can never make sense out of this type of map. It takes me a long time just to find the outline of the U.S.!
So, Hugo Vet, are you at all worried it will hit up here? It looks like FL for sure to me. I'm not the least bit concerned right now although earlier a couple of the models, the ones with lines, lol, showed a straight N shot towards us.

[PurdueWx80]

would you mind posting the new scenario?? Thanks!

SUre thing...it's coming in now...but not near complete. As a tease though, it is showing signs of a further west track than it has had for the last few days. Be back shortly...

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I can never make sense out of this type of map. It takes me a long time just to find the outline of the U.S.!
So, Hugo Vet, are you at all worried it will hit up here? It looks like FL for sure to me. I'm not the least bit concerned right now although earlier a couple of the models, the ones with lines, lol, showed a straight N shot towards us.

not sure about here....it is looking better for us!

[USAwx1]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_m_loop.shtml

that was the operational GFS 18z run from yesterday, and it's scenario regarding ivan is suspicious to say the least. it looks even more extreme than the 0z ECMWF.

of the 12z tropical models, the BAM Medium is the FURTHEST east with Ivan, and even that is WEST of the 0z ECMWF and 18z 9/7 GFS tracks.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_09.gif

Plus one also has to consider the location of Ivan (which is at a VERY LOW Latitude). a SHARP turn to the NW and eventually NNW would have to take place in order for that run of the GFS to pan out.