Ivan Advisories

[Stormchaser16]

Most likely not IMO

[Innotech]

whoops

that would be one hell of a hurricane if it did actualy get to 1355KT

its been corrected though

like the great storm of Jupiter

[Jeremy]

If it doesn't take a direct hit, what kind of damage usually occurs?

sorry for the questions, just nervous about this trip.

Thanks a bunch.

Jeremy

[x-y-no]

Yeah, I think he'll get there, but probably not stay there.

[Innotech]

no

[ColinD]

I say no. Maybe after it gets northwest of Jamaica.

[SunnyThoughts]

I don't think so, not today. Maybe Thursday or Friday.

[PurdueWx80]

It is consistently keeping the ridge to the north of the storm stronger than the GFS or most of the other globals. It seems to be slower in digging in the trough across the northern plains than the other models and also has the upper low over the Atlantic further east, allowing the ridge to be stronger further to the west. I'll post the rest when it comes up.

[Guest]

Derek busts his arse on these forecasts, at the cost of precious sleep and, during Frances, at risk to his personal safety.

That alone merits our respect. But the fact that his forecasts have been so dead-on accurate is even further reason. You may not agree with his forecasts, but there is a respectful way to express that. Not only for Derek, but for others on this board.

I personally have a feeling that Ivan is going to track about half-way between the NHC and Derek's track--grazing Jamaica on its way by. But I'm an amateur. Derek is the guy that does this for a living, so I will respectfully watch events develop to see if I'm right rather than challenge the validity of his forecast.

I will give respect when I receive the same.

[~SirCane]

[Stormchaser16]

Ummmmmmmm wow, is all i can say to describe that

[TexasStooge]

I think it'll hit the Texas coast line.

[Taffy]

Mike
You are absolutly right!!!!!!! What do those people in the islands and South America do to handle this stuff time and time again. I can't even imagine.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Actually Ivan is getting into some slightly cooler waters and some shear...not to mention he is just completing an ERC. I believe he will though, but only as he approaches Cuba in the exceptionally warm instability of the W CARIB.

[Hyperstorm]

Ivan was right in the middle of an intensification burst when he passed over St George's...

And a strengthening hurricane is more destructive than a constant or weakening one - somewhat like Marilyn in 95.

Excellent point! You can add to your list...Andrew, Charley, Georges (DR), Iris and MANY MANY more...

[Canelaw99]

None of the above

[PurdueWx80]

Yeah, and Joe B. is referring to Ivan as a Gilbert-esque storm. He thinks if it is untouched by land (Cuba or Jamaica) it will be under 920 mb in the NW Caribbean, but not as low as Gilbert. I'm a little hesitant to completely agree w/ his current forecast (just like what you see up on the map) since he busted on Frances, but he is usually an excellent forecaster and is rarely wrong (but when he is, he IS).

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 8, 2004 11:27 a.m.


As of 11 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Frances is located over southwesternmost North Carolina. Frances is moving slowly toward the north-northeast at about 10 mph. An upper-level system will cause Frances to pick up forward speed to the north-northeast tomorrow. Heavy rainfall and bands of severe weather will continue to be the main problems with this system, from the Carolinas northward into Pennsylvania today, and eventually farther north into New York state and even New England.

Hurricane Ivan is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane. As of 11 a.m. EDT, Ivan was centered at 12.7 north, 66.2 west, or about 795 miles east-southeast of Jamaica. Ivan is moving westward at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 140 mph. The central pressure in Ivan is 955 millibars or 28.20 inches. We expect Ivan to continue on a west to west-northwest course for the next 2-3 days, bringing the hurricane just north of The Dutch Netherland Antilles today and over or close to Jamaica on Friday. Ivan will probably undergo fluctuations, and there is a concern this hurricane could become a very dangerous Category 5 hurricane. The track that Ivan takes west of Jamaica is very uncertain. Model output is showing a gradual turn to the northwest and then to the north toward Florida Saturday night and Sunday. However, this far out we cannot be sure of the future track of late in the weekend or early next week. All interests in the northern and northwest Caribbean, as well as all interests in the Gulf of Mexico, should keep a close eye on Ivan.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, we have a tropical wave along 30 west, and about 15 north, east of the Cape Verde Islands, moving west. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, along 41 west, south of 17 north, moving west. There is a tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula, moving westward.

[Taffy]

Someone mentioned how hard it is to watch their children suffer, but how remarkable that kids just adapt. How true, but like mine and many others will do something to make you go... "OH, they might not be all right."

At dinner last night, by 5 year old was eating broccoli. We call them little trees. He stripps the top off of one and turns to me and says " Look mommy, my tree just got hit by a hurricane."

[calidoug]

Yeah, it's above 280 now. About 285, for the last few hours.

EDIT: Last frame, a step W again.