Ivan Advisories

[tallbunch]

accuweather has been wrong with almost all the hurricanes this season and last. They had frances going to Jacksonville for a long time.

[~SirCane]

Maybe that's a bit later in their forecast........

[JtSmarts]

That a huge cone.

[Innotech]

just remember, the Phillippines went through 7 tropical storms in a month, 4 of which were hurricanes, 2 were major. This isnt an unknown thing.

One hting I do not like, is being called a troll for having an opinion. sometimes reality IS painful to bear, and Ive gone throgh enough reality of my own to know that not everything is wine and roses. It wasnt storm related, but losing family to murder is worse than any stupid storm.
thats not really relevant here, but all Im saying is at least you guys have your lives. you are alive and able to continue on, even if you have to rebuild. that is life. that is reality. again sorry if that seems harsh, but you cant control what nature will do and all you can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Justtrying to keep things in perspective and not meaning any harm. sometimes people need a row of storms to realize what is really important in life and how precious and fragile it is. Certain parts of my state could use a wakeup call as well. humanity is of the belief that it is in control, and in fact, we are NOt even close to being in control. we are ants to giants, and when nature comes roaring, we can either get out of the way or be crushed. now I believe in god, and Im praying for you guys over there, but I hope this has been a lesson to people about what is more important than property.

[JtSmarts]

Does anyone know whether there will be anything in the Gulf to weaken Ivan ala Lili.

[chris_fit]

Well Said Innotech

[ido]

no it's not!

[Stormtrack03]

I'm going with a FL possible hit as well. Although, it breaks my heart see them suffer so much .

[shorrock]

I agree.

We just got back online here in Boynton. I think most of our area still needs a wakeup call about life. It's been very sad how many people just seem me-centric. They've been begging people to treat all lights that aren't working like four-way stops, etc. and people just zip through. It's knid of sad.

Oh well, gotta so start preping for Ivan.

Sigh.

[x-y-no]

They're really hedging their bets with that cone ... barring the out-to-lunch GFS verifying, I think they've got it covered, LOL.

[MWatkins]

So far so bad with the globals. The CMC is once again well west of the other models and since it is a member of the Supersenmble it's going to drag that model to the west.

The GFS is closer to the FL coast but still out to sea. I would feel better if this model was bringing Ivan into FL IMHO.

Nogaps at 12Z wants to take Ivan right up the state.

Looks like we are seeing the low we discussed yesterday (and yeah! saw it in the 5am discussion) start to cut off as the troughing in the Central Atlantic is pushing down on 70W.

MW

[msbee]

How to help...:

* For New Yorkers who wants to offer any kind of help, they can carry any donations of anything to Square Deal shippers at Church Avenue and East 45th Street Brooklyn, in care of GM shipping

I am working on other contactss for those of you who are not in NYC

[Hurricane Cheese]

He sure is looking good on the satellite pics right now....you can see his eye becoming more and more evident while running the loops

[Hurrilurker]

And a strengthening hurricane is more destructive than a constant or weakening one - somewhat like Marilyn in 95.

Please explain. Do you mean because a strengthening hurricane might be underestimated at landfall? Frances was a weakening storm and look at the kind of damage that did...

[Derecho]

1) It's actually not particularly different from the NHC track in any major way

2) JB's "forecast" or whatever one can divine from what is vomited forth at great length in his columns, does not necessarily match the Accuweather forecast track.

[air360]

Mods....is there anything we can do get this thing going???

[Stormcenter]

Looking at the 12z data coming in and analyzing 00z runs it's becoming more and more apparent that the trough over the eastern gulf will be sufficient enough to induce a northern component. At this time the main question is will Ivan move north across Cuba then S. Fl or will in bend nw then n across the west coast of Fl or Panhandale. Either way it's very likely that Florida will be dealing with a severe Hurricane late in the weekend/next week.

I respectfully disagree with half of what you are predicting.
As I mentioned in another
post Ivan is too far south and still moving too quickly.
He will not cross Cuba. The only area in Florida that may have a problem is the panhandle but not South Florida. You guys need to give Florida
a break with these predictions. Ivan is still 5 days or more from US
landfall so the gloom and doom predictions are not necessary just yet.

[calidoug]

Reverse -removed- is irresponsible.

[Steve H.]

Looking at the latest NOGAPS, it shows Ivan crssing Cuba near Havana, then takes him up the West Central peninsula at day 5/6. 12Z GFS has the cyclone crossing central Cuba very slowly, then moving NNE over the Bahamas with a strong ridge in place to the north. Remember the GFS performed quite well with Frances in this pattern, predicting the stall over Grand Bahama Island and the hugging of the coast near Melbourne 84 hours out. Canadian is still staying with a more westerly course. Awaiting more runs, but have a feeling that the NHC will shift this track slightly to the right from the 11am advisory. We'll see.....hope he goes out into the Atlantic!!....but I doubt it. Cheers!!

[x-y-no]

I assume you're not saying you believe Ivan will actually be where the GFS puts him (since that implies missing Florida to the east) but that the synoptic situation would bring him north if he's south of Cuba/west of Jamaica at that time?

The big issue here is how fast does the storm move between now and late Friday/early Saturday. Derek has him in the Gulf by then, so that would make this a north Gulf coast event quite likely. A little slower, though, and we could be looking at a west Florida, or (much less likely IMHO) south Florida event.