Ivan Advisories

[huricanwatcher]

Carolinas!!

Fine by me! They can have it....... now someone needs to let Ivan in on this.

first off

2nd ..... wheres hurricanelover?

[wxwatcher2]

GFS = Gone Fishing Scenario

[southerngale]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

eye becoming better defined, as well.

well more likely than if it kept driving west but quite honeslty this was expected although they were forecasting it to do this in 12-24 and it started quick so its wait and see..all depends on the situation upstream in 3-4 days.

Well, I wouldn't say the wnw started quicker than expected. They did forecast it to start moving wnw for quite a few advisories before it did.

Archives

[Wainfleeter]

Dh.. I am actually still recovering emotionally from Charley.. Frances came along and didn't help.. I love these storms don't get me wrong.. But we can only take so much here!

John,

It is good to see you posting again. Gentle hugs sent your way.

~DonnaM

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 8, 2004 2:13 p.m.


As of 2 p.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Frances is located over southwestern Virginia. Frances is moving slowly toward the north-northeast at about 10 mph. An upper-level system will cause Frances to pick up forward speed to the north-northeast tomorrow. Heavy rainfall and bands of severe weather will continue to be the main problems with this system, from the Carolinas northward into Pennsylvania today, and eventually farther north into New York state and even New England.

Hurricane Ivan is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane. As of 2 p.m. EDT, Ivan was centered at 13.1 north, 67.0 west, or about 740 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Ivan is moving west-northwestward at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 140 mph. The central pressure in Ivan is 949 millibars or 28.02 inches. We expect Ivan to continue on a west-northwest course for the next 2-3 days, bringing the hurricane just north of The Dutch Netherland Antilles today and over or close to Jamaica on Friday. Ivan will probably undergo fluctuations, and there is a concern this hurricane could become a very dangerous Category 5 hurricane. The track that Ivan takes past the end of the week is very uncertain. Model output is showing a gradual turn to the northwest and then to the north toward Florida Sunday. However, this far out we cannot be sure of the future track of late in the weekend or early next week. All interests in the northern and northwest Caribbean, as well as all interests in the Gulf of Mexico, should keep a close eye on Ivan.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, we have a tropical wave along 30 west, and about 15 north, east of the Cape Verde Islands, moving west. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, along 41 west, south of 17 north, moving west. There is a tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula, moving westward.

[Josephine96]

Miami 31 FSU 21

[HurricaneGirl]

It's about as big as Frances!

[dhweather]

Making Chris Rix 0-fer

[adelphi_sky]

As a Virginia Tech Hokie, it's all good. Because one of you guys is gonna loose. Hehehe. I hope Florida looses, because then we can knock off the 'Canes.

[otowntiger]

MORe importantly that scenario would be very bad for Orlando. That is how Charley hit us and it wasn't pretty. Still not. Some parts of Orlando will take a long time to recover. We still have a ton of debris, make that timber lying on our road waiting for County to pick up. Roofs are covered with tarp all over the place. We got 105 mph winds when he came here, If Ivan does something similar with similar strength, look out! Jacksonville, you'd get some nasty weather too, but not as bad, excepting tornadoes, flooding, etc.

[Guest]

I'm not saying to rely on the GFS but what I am saying is that I don't believe this Central GOM stuff.

To get Ivan to far into the GOM that High better get its act together & all indications are that its pretty much status quo.

[Hurrilurker]

I think the only reason Frances weakened was because of dry air and Nortern Bahamas.. Thank GOD she weakened though..

By the way.. does anyone have initial estimates on Frances damage yet? Some said it could be the costliest cane in history..

I've heard $2B-$10B, more recently around $5B. Although people are still getting rained on so who knows.

[mitchell]

Im not sure the NHC's "cone" is really smaller than Accuweather's cone

[Josephine96]

Miami is in the ACC now so it's a conference game

[latemodel25]

so where will it go? your input please!

[JTD]

Is this new tropical wave at 15/30 going to be much of a threat?

[x-y-no]

nothing like looking at death and destruction, knowing people will die.

I respect your feelings ... but what are we supposed to do, bury our heads in the sand?

[Josephine96]

Yeah.. I think the only reason I heard costliest cane was when she was a Cat 4..

[Big_Steve]

:?:

Is Biloxi, MS out of the woods from Ivan's threat? Is the storm really headed towards FL?


End Of Message
09/08/04

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Carolinas!!

Fine by me! They can have it....... now someone needs to let Ivan in on this.

first off

2nd ..... wheres hurricanelover?

he has been suspended