I don't either MIA, but I think your thread title is misleading. Ivan, IMHO is headed for the GoM, but at this early stage, the threat (if any) appears to be farther east of the NC Gulf.
Steve
Ivan Advisories
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It could go into the GOM but not as far north & west as I have been reading here IMO.I think where NHC has it now on the 5 day forecast is about as far west as it will get in the GOM if it gets that far.Things can change but based on what I am seeing & also based on the NHC forecast of ridges eroding & troughs developing I dont know how this hurricane can make it to to far into the GOM.The ATL ridge is trying to build in but it is flattening out in a north/south manner on it west side because Frances did leave a bit of a trough behind.(Check WV LOOP)
Stay tuned to the NHC advisories these are just my opinions & they know way more than I do but I know a thing or 2 about a thing or 2.
Stay tuned to the NHC advisories these are just my opinions & they know way more than I do but I know a thing or 2 about a thing or 2.
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I have no idea, but I just got an email from a friend of mine who is quite a calm individual. He does IT work for the Navy in Key West and told me the Navy says unless it turns to be prepared for 165mph winds and 16 foot surge. That sounds insane, can any of you pros give me something to give him some better hopes than the Navy is giving him?
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cycloneye
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3:30 PM EDT Storm2k Update on Ivan and rest of Atlantic
Hurricane Ivan continues to move WNW around the ridge and it will move more NW as it gets to the perifery of it.From there it will be interesting to see what happens with the trough,ridge situation because those factors will guide where Ivan will track after 3 days.There are difrent model runs this afternoon but the most prudent thing to do at this point is to follow the track of Ivan in the next 24-48 hours and from that point we will have a beter handle of the future track.
Ivan has mantained as a cat 4 hurricane a very dangerous one.It will have fluctuations in the track as some replacement cycles will happen.Low shear and very warm sst's await Ivan in the NW caribbean sea and I wont be surprised if it gets briefly to cat 5 status.It will make landfall somewhere in the US coastline as a major hurricane unless it moves thru the high mountains of eastern Cuba when it will weaken a lot if it tracks that way.
Elsewhere in the atlantic:
2 Tropical waves are located in the tropical atlantic but none are showing signs of organization at this time.
Disclaimer=This product is not official.The official source is the National Hurricane Center.
Forecaster=Luis Martinez (Cycloneye)
Ivan has mantained as a cat 4 hurricane a very dangerous one.It will have fluctuations in the track as some replacement cycles will happen.Low shear and very warm sst's await Ivan in the NW caribbean sea and I wont be surprised if it gets briefly to cat 5 status.It will make landfall somewhere in the US coastline as a major hurricane unless it moves thru the high mountains of eastern Cuba when it will weaken a lot if it tracks that way.
Elsewhere in the atlantic:
2 Tropical waves are located in the tropical atlantic but none are showing signs of organization at this time.
Disclaimer=This product is not official.The official source is the National Hurricane Center.
Forecaster=Luis Martinez (Cycloneye)
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
New Orleans met post this am
Local tv met posted this on the WWL web site this am.
The most important thing to note about all of the storms, this year, is that the models have poorly initialized them (for whatever reason) and they have trended north too fast. Ivan is tricky because there have been so few storms in that part of the Caribbean with this kind of strength. Many of these models have been off by over 100 miles in just the first 48 hours.
It seems hard to believe that Ivan would not make the Gulf of Mexico. Back in the old days, the track through the Caribbean into the Gulf was called "the envelope". Most "envelope" storms are the result of low latitude systems entering the Caribbean.
The question, of course, is will it be the central Gulf or the Eastern Gulf. If I had that answer, I would be retired.
I am biased a little west of the hurricane center track. They are basically splitting the difference on the not so great models, so a trend toward the Yucatan Channel is still possible.
On the other hand, the eastern solution is in the game, as well. However, the up and out to the Bahamas I see as very unlikely.
The storm is likely to slow , a lot, by the weekend.
That will lead to some moments and "issues".
Also those NW Caribbean waters and Gulf waters have not been tapped, this year, this storm has lots of potential to strengthen further.
David Bernard
Meteorologist
The most important thing to note about all of the storms, this year, is that the models have poorly initialized them (for whatever reason) and they have trended north too fast. Ivan is tricky because there have been so few storms in that part of the Caribbean with this kind of strength. Many of these models have been off by over 100 miles in just the first 48 hours.
It seems hard to believe that Ivan would not make the Gulf of Mexico. Back in the old days, the track through the Caribbean into the Gulf was called "the envelope". Most "envelope" storms are the result of low latitude systems entering the Caribbean.
The question, of course, is will it be the central Gulf or the Eastern Gulf. If I had that answer, I would be retired.
I am biased a little west of the hurricane center track. They are basically splitting the difference on the not so great models, so a trend toward the Yucatan Channel is still possible.
On the other hand, the eastern solution is in the game, as well. However, the up and out to the Bahamas I see as very unlikely.
The storm is likely to slow , a lot, by the weekend.
That will lead to some moments and "issues".
Also those NW Caribbean waters and Gulf waters have not been tapped, this year, this storm has lots of potential to strengthen further.
David Bernard
Meteorologist
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Dean4Storms
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Here you go MIA, as you can see from this graphic it is the mid to upper ridging that is forcing Ivan more westward. Note the flow from east to west all north of Ivan. Hopefully this will help you understand why the hurricane is expected by me and others to head for the SE GOM.
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My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the EMA, NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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KeyLargoDave
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PurdueWx80
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Josephine96
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quickychick
PurdueWx80 wrote:Well, considering that surface pressures aren't what drive the movement of a hurricane, this whole post is bunk. You have to look at the ENTIRE troposphere, not just the very bottom boundary. The major areas to look for are between 700-300 mb, not at the surface.
Why at those areas (serious question from a numbnut)? Thanks...
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Yankeegirl
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Matthew5
May 23 this year a "tropical depression" formed off the southwestern coast of Hati. This area of low pressure had a clearly closed low level cirualtion with winds of 30 to 35 mph on the Quickscat. This also had a large area of convection on its northeastern quad. This area of low pressure/Depression rained for days with a death total of 3,300 people. So Hati doe's not need to be hit.
For you people that think that this was not a tropical cyclone this is just my option. It appeared to be a warm core system...If you went to say it was not give me data that says other wise!
For you people that think that this was not a tropical cyclone this is just my option. It appeared to be a warm core system...If you went to say it was not give me data that says other wise!
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IVAN looking 5ish ....................
Ivan looks like he is approaching 5 status. As close to a perfect presentation as one would want to see for a hurricane. Lord help wherever he makes landfall.
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Yankeegirl
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