Ivan Advisories

#941 Postby **dhweather** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:58 pm

SST's in the GOM are quite warm, that should not be an issue.

#942 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:58 pm

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /ivan.html

Sorry for being late again. My schudule's giving me a headache these days. Track forecast is nearly exactly an extension of last night and remains somewhat modest with intensity.

#943 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:58 pm

Ok, I'm going to preface my response with this, I know the Eta isn't a tropical model, BUT the 18z version misses the connection with any weakness in the ridge and keeps it moving WNW to W, stalling in the far western Caribbean, a la Mitch. This is the first of any model that I've seen do this, and I think it's a little out of touch, but given the deep easterly flow in the entire Caribbean, I have to think a more southern track is reasonable.

Aquawind · #944 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:58 pm

This is actually starting to piss me off!!

x-y-no · #945 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:58 pm

So that's 30 degree water in there, right? Wish they picked a better color scheme ... it could just as well be 25 degree water, but that doesn't make sense.

Nimbus · #946 Postby **Nimbus** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:59 pm

My satellite coordinates must be off, the eye looked about .15 degrees further south?

Anonymous · #947 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:59 pm

Hurricane Ivan Special Forecast # 5
Wednesday September 8, 2004 5pm
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

Wow. Wow. Wow. This is a special forecast, my first ever.

I just wanted to point out, while the NHC at 5pm kept Hurricane Ivan at 120 kt (140 mph), I actually feel that the actual intensity is more in the 125-135 kt range. (145-155 mph) However, I am no Derek Orrt, so I am keeping that as my own opinion. J/k Derek :wink:

#948 Postby **ericinmia** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:59 pm

The new Euro has the eye of Ivan skirting ashore in miami-dade county... That would be horrible!

I have pretty good faith in the Euro's ability to predict ageneral area... especially after its long term predictions with Frances. The Euro has been fairly steady with the hurricane passing over the south fla area.
-Eric

#949 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:00 pm

WOW! He's lookin' good!!!

Derek Ortt · #950 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:00 pm

issue has been settled via PM; therefore, the previous content in this post no longer exists, officially

rainstorm · #951 Postby **rainstorm** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:02 pm

looks like everyone east of the peninsula is safe

Anonymous · #952 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:02 pm

Actually, when I first wrote that, I really meant that to come off as a compliment.... :roll:

Website · #953 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:03 pm

The only problem is recon hasn't found winds strong enough to support anything higher than 140 mph.

#954 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:03 pm

Damn, that's a beauty... I completely agree, it looks like it is stronger than what they say. However, RECON reports haven't shown the greater increase (I think).

#955 Postby **dhweather** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:04 pm

Great symmetry and presentation. Too bad its not a beauty contest!

canegrl04 · #956 Postby **canegrl04** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:04 pm

I can't believe the NHC insists on keeping Ivan at 140mph when its so obvious he has improved greatly since this morning.Ivan has to be clocking at least 145mph about now

Website · #957 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:04 pm

Possum Trot wrote:What exactly does this mean

"INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS."

Is it the current sea level windspeed

Yes. 120 knots is 140 mph.

I really don't get the cooler waters... :roll:

#958 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:04 pm

Eric - do you have a link for that one???

Josephine96 · #959 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:05 pm

He is looking good..

bahamaswx · #960 Postby **bahamaswx** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:06 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:would be nice to lay off of the personal attacks, little boy

lol

Ivan Advisories

Ivan #7 same track as last night 125kt max

Hurricane Ivan Special forecast!!!

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