Bias towards FL forecast hits

[PurdueWx80]

It seems many of us here have been bitten by the "what-has-happened-this-year-so-far" bug. By that I mean everyone automatically assumes that Ivan is a FL storm. I ask you this, would you feel the same if you forgot all about the past 2 months? While the past can be a good indicator of the future, the fact that we have had 2 FL hits is pretty arbitrary really. This is not to say that Ivan won't hit FL, and I'm not accusing you guys of anything, just making the implication that not as many people would say FL FL FL if no storms had hit FL this year. I really think the media has sort of run with this idea by indicating a hit on FL even though we are still more than 5 days out.

[Johnny]

The media was talking of a Florida hit when Frances was just coming ashore!!

[alicia-w]

Wow, look at where the EURO puts Ivan by Wednesday, the Carolinas!!!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004090812!!/

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Wow, look at where the EURO puts Ivan by Wednesday, the Carolinas!!!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004090812!!/

thanks! i needed that! NOT!....LOL

[Josephine96]

LOL

[PurdueWx80]

Yeah, the Euro still looks for a Miami hit followed by due N movement to Charleston (or so...map is too small to see exactly where).

[hesperhys]

[quote="alicia-w"]Wow, look at where the EURO puts Ivan by Wednesday, the Carolinas!!!

After running over south Fla...

[ColinD]

Well, the entire Florida peninsula is in the 5 day cone of a category 4 hurricane. If that cone were pointed at Texas I don't think we'd be discussing Ivan and Florida.

[MWatkins]

Once again...all history this season aside...this is entirely plausible IMHO...the euro has been fairly consistent in taking Ivan up around 80 to 83 west for the last several runs. Of course...those 3 degrees can make a big difference in the Panhandle of FL vs. the Carolinas.

I am NOT calling for an NC strike at this time...this just adds fuel to the FL fire for now.

But the trend in the Euro is holding steady.

MW

[caneman]

It seems many of us here have been bitten by the "what-has-happened-this-year-so-far" bug. By that I mean everyone automatically assumes that Ivan is a FL storm. I ask you this, would you feel the same if you forgot all about the past 2 months? While the past can be a good indicator of the future, the fact that we have had 2 FL hits is pretty arbitrary really. This is not to say that Ivan won't hit FL, and I'm not accusing you guys of anything, just making the implication that not as many people would say FL FL FL if no storms had hit FL this year. I really think the media has sort of run with this idea by indicating a hit on FL even though we are still more than 5 days out.

Florida has in fact been hit 3x this year . Everyone is gun shy here. Which is normal and to be expected. The steering mechanisms this year have given us good reason to be conerned. Lets remember that the West Florida season really isn't suppose to start until October when you exclude June.

[Josephine96]

Just what we in Fla need right lol

[wxwatcher2]

If Fla had not had the two storms in a month, I'd not think any storm would hit florida.

Now, I think everyone of them will hit Florida.
And I will until one does not.

[PurdueWx80]

Yeah it really sucks when models keep being consistent w/ themselves, but not even remotely so with each other. The Euro, GEM and to some degree the GFS have all been consistent in their own rights, but show drastically different things.

Euro = Miami to the Carolinas
GEM = Yucatan Channel to LA/MS/AL or FL panhandle
GFS = east of FL to way east of FL to the mid-Atlantic or Northeast lol

[Portastorm]

Well, the entire Florida peninsula is in the 5 day cone of a category 4 hurricane. If that cone were pointed at Texas I don't think we'd be discussing Ivan and Florida.

(awakens from his nap) .. wha? what? Did someone say Texas?

(falls back asleep since the western GOM has been a tropical weather ghost town in 2004).

[Ground_Zero_92]

(falls back asleep since the western GOM has been a tropical weather ghost town in 2004).

Count your blessings, this is not fun!

[Josephine96]

LOL about sleeping Texas

[dhweather]

Well, the entire Florida peninsula is in the 5 day cone of a category 4 hurricane. If that cone were pointed at Texas I don't think we'd be discussing Ivan and Florida.

(awakens from his nap) .. wha? what? Did someone say Texas?

(falls back asleep since the western GOM has been a tropical weather ghost town in 2004).

The western 3/4th's of the GOM have been quiet.

[Guest]

Well as of right now people should be concerned because the cone covers the entire state of FLA..Just because some here issue their own forecast taking it some other direction thats their problem & they have the right to do what ever they like but the official NHC forecast has Fla is the future track & therefore people should be concerned.When the forecasts changes & points to LA ,TX or Nova Scotia then those people should get concerned.

Lets keep in mind that the NHC is the official source & I'm sure that team of forecasters see verything we do & more & theyve done a pretty good job this year forecasting these things.