Ivan Advisories

Jimbosc · #981 Postby **Jimbosc** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:18 pm

It is already a monster, and US landfall seems a high probability. The questions are how strong will it be and where will it hit. Right now Tampa and points north seems most likely - but given how far south Ivan is right now I think the whole GOM needs to pay attention.

Jim

#982 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:19 pm

Apparently, the original post was edited so my comments are no longer necessary.

Hurricanegurl56 · #983 Postby **Hurricanegurl56** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:19 pm

Big_Steve wrote::?:

Is Biloxi, MS out of the woods from Ivan's threat? Is the storm really headed towards FL?

End Of Message
09/08/04

no one is out of the woods yet..we really dont know where this storm is going to go

BUD · #984 Postby **BUD** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:19 pm

Well I live 2miles from the SC/NC br.And I hope this is wrong.

#985 Postby **dhweather** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:20 pm

The GOM, Particularly Lafayette LA to Key West, needs to pay careful attention to Ivan. Again, he's not a"point", there will be a large area of destruction at landfall.

Tri-State_1925 · #986 Postby **Tri-State_1925** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:21 pm

Sorry if this was already posted...

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/09/08/h ... index.html

chicagopizza · #987 Postby **chicagopizza** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:22 pm

New to this-please be nice!

Just a little confused. I know the whole disclaimer thing-too far out, go by official forecast,etc.

However, I am curious why my local mets already have this pegged as a Gulf Coast event with little chance of curving that sharply north. Is this just a "jog" that is showing up or a possible but unlikely scenario?

No-I don't want the thing and am not "-removed-". Think of me as the Forest Gump of weather. Just wondering why the discrepancy.

huricanwatcher · #988 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:23 pm

can we say a se coastal event... or tragedy?

#989 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:25 pm

Ok, Schmita, and others - here's what Brian Norcross from CBS4 in S. FL is saying:

The area that needs to be most concerned right now is the Keys because they're further south. There are plenty of precedents, recent ones, for why it could come this way, but there are plenty of others for why it could go into the Gulf. He says all indications are that it will get stronger. It looks like it will turn right pretty significantly, but where and when is still to be seen.

Basically, he's saying that it's a wait and see game, like the others....ugh....

clueless newbie · #990 Postby **clueless newbie** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:26 pm

I think Avila just wanted to say that the sea surface temperatures ahead (i.e. south of Hispaniola) are a bit lower then what Ivan has been over so far, so there is a chance it will weaken slightly.

MetroMike · #991 Postby **MetroMike** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:27 pm

Denis Phillips in Tampa is saying that this hurricane is still thousands of miles away from us and many things have to come together for this to be a Florida event. By Friday he said we should know if that throug if is place or not...a very imporant factor in the track.

greeng13 · #992 Postby **greeng13** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:27 pm

HollynLA wrote:
Carolinas!!

Fine by me! They can have it....... now someone needs to let Ivan in on this.

first of all...i realize this is probably humor

second...the caroilinas in the past few years has taken many a hurricane for the team so to speak (especially the outerbanks!)

third...this year we've already gotten the remnants of 3 systems and one to our own==plenty of rain==don't need any more...like the rest of the whole southeast...let alone the south

chicagopizza · #993 Postby **chicagopizza** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:27 pm

"Event" was the forecaster's word; not mine. Any hurricane is a tragedy. Forgot to put it in quotes. sorry.

Tri-State_1925 · #994 Postby **Tri-State_1925** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:27 pm

When you see the next shade of color start appearing on that intellicast IR image (beyond purple), then you'll have a cat 5. That's what I saw when that cat 5 that hit the Yucatan...was it last summer?

#995 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:27 pm

chris_fit wrote:comparing to charely, a lot especially tom on chan 6...

he just had a graphic comparing the two tracks and how they are basically the same.

Also that the synoptic patterns are exactly the same.

The synoptic patterns will be nothing alike. There was a GIGANTIC trough in the middle of the country w/ record cold air. There has been nothing even close to this forecast by any of the models....not sure where he's getting his info.

CFL · #996 Postby **CFL** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:29 pm

Looks like the trend is going to be shifting east rather than west . . .

#997 Postby **dhweather** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:29 pm

That is extremely impressive satellite imagery.

#998 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:30 pm

URNT12 KNHC 082108
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/2108Z
B. 13 DEG 16 MIN N
67 DEG 43 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2586 M
D. 100 KT
E. 113 DEG 004 NM
F. 212 DEG 111 KT
G. 122 DEG 007 NM
H. 943 MB
I. 9 C/ 3091 M
J. 18 C/ 3105 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/07
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF977 0809A IVAN OB 20
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NW QUAD 1746Z.

#999 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:30 pm

here we go again

Matthew5 · #1000 Postby **Matthew5** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:30 pm

Holy $#% that is a 4 millibar drop!

Ivan Advisories

Edited

Re: Ivan not going to make it into the GOM?

Grenada news...at least 9 dead, expected to rise

confusing

Pressure droppin like a ROCK! 943 mbs!!

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