Wxrisk.com going out on a limb ...

Thunder44 · #21 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:12 pm

I do agree that Ivan is taken a much farther south and west path then TPC is showing.

rainstorm · #22 Postby **rainstorm** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:14 pm

nope, says 11am yesterday

OrlandoDad · #23 Postby **OrlandoDad** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:15 pm

Why do people keep saying he was right with Frances? In the chat room he was claiming Frances would hit extreme south FL and deriding anyone who claimed the NHC Vero Beach target was right.

No, my posting friends. He did not get Frances right until it was obvious.

southerngale · #24 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:16 pm

rainstorm wrote:nope, says 11am yesterday

1155AM WEDNESDAY SEPT 8

That's today, rs.

rtd2 · #25 Postby **rtd2** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:01 pm

Qoute" NHC Vero Beach target was right"

:roll:

rainstorm · #26 Postby **rainstorm** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:09 pm

nah, yesterdays discussion

canegrl04 · #27 Postby **canegrl04** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:16 pm

Using his bench mark for a strickly Gulf cane (to or further south of 17.5 n,70w -right now it does not even look like Ivan will cross 15n by the time he gets to 70w

Jorah of Indian Land · #28 Postby **Jorah of Indian Land** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:19 pm

I've no way of evaluating his statements; I'm "only an egg" when it comes to wx, but his style is certainly breathless enough. I felt like I was trying to read while standing atop a speeding train...
8-)

-Jorah

Johnny · #29 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:27 pm

Did this DT fella get banned from this site?

Guest · #30 Postby **Guest** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:38 pm

Ivan is already north of his track & moving W/NW not west as he shows.

#31 Postby **Terry** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:56 pm

Hoping DT is right this time as I'm leaving Thurs. for Green Turtle Cay, Abacos to check on damage to family property from Frances. Will return Sunday and hoping to not have to deal with Ivan on FL West Coast either.

I watched DT's forecast and discussions and he seems pretty right-on, not that things can't change that many days out.

#32 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 5:02 pm

He's right notta chance from the south. Ivan would be in a category only with Hazel the last one hundred years that moved east of Florida from his past to present location.

#33 Postby **MBismyPlayground** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 5:43 pm

I have read is reports for several years and mostly he has been right on. He is very quick to answer e mail questions as well and will try and back up every thing he has forecasted. Sometimes, in his excitement, it does become a little hard to understand unless you reread it a few times, but otherwise, I pay close attention to him. Lets all hope he is right. Would give most of Fl a big break.

Derecho · #34 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 5:45 pm

BayouVenteux wrote:While his, shall we say...outspoken...posts may raise the hair of some visitors to his website from time to time, you have to give DT credit for his calls on Frances. He mixed a blend of solid synoptic reasoning and good common sense to cut through the model-hugging spaghetti-path haze and call the path and landfall pretty much on target from a good distance out.

He did worse than NHC....he wasn't as bad as the Bastardis and Cosgroves of the world, but he was talking about a 50% chance of it passing SOUTH of Florida completely fairly late in the game, and was basically making fun of the idea of the storm slowing down at all.

And actually, he's a specialist in making it sound like he's taking some sort of bold extreme position when actually he isn't; his forecast track isn't all that far west of NHC at the moment.

Wxrisk.com going out on a limb ...

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