Moving due west than WNW at a fast pace

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 5:15 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

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In the last frames it seems like a more west motion 280 than 295 WNW but maybe it is a wobble

TyphoonTim · #2 Postby **TyphoonTim** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 5:19 pm

I was just looking at that too. Seems like it made a little "hop" northward, then returned to it's westerly course.

rainstorm · #3 Postby **rainstorm** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 5:21 pm

a little good news is better than none

greeng13 · #4 Postby **greeng13** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 5:26 pm

if anyone could answer...

how much does say a 5 mile jog to the west vs. west/nw actually translate into the final path of our ivan the terrible?

*after edit*
i do realize that there are many other factors involoved...just wondering if everything else "remains the same" so to speak

#5 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 5:27 pm

I agree, can't say that it is not just a wobble either. Give it a few more hours to see if the 280 verifies.

kevin · #6 Postby **kevin** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 5:28 pm

greeng13.. hard to tell, almost impossible to predict quantitatively. It would be one thing if we knew where Ivan was going to land, but we don't... so there is no baseline to see whether the jog is really a jog or just a product of the forecast itself within the margins of what was predicted. For instance... the stairstepping of Frances.

skywarn · #7 Postby **skywarn** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 5:39 pm

I agree. The past few frames does indicate a more west movement.

hurrmia · #8 Postby **hurrmia** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 5:39 pm

i see what it look like more nw track!!may the turn is happen

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 5:43 pm

More west at 2 more frames.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:03 pm

Also it is moving fast and that fast motion will not permit a turn to the NW more sooner.

Moving due west than WNW at a fast pace

Moving due west than WNW at a fast pace

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