Stormsfury wrote:It almost looks like the N ATL ridge is trying to extend underneath the weakness left behind in the departing wake of Frances. although the s/w ridging that Frances pumped up out east of it yesterday and last night has faded (and responsible for the unbelievable moisture feed and LLJ in excess of 50 KTS ... responsible for an unbelievable number of warnings in SC for tornadoes yesterday ...)
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/Analysis.gif
Also note, WSW of Ivan, an upper system has closed off as well on that analysis ... and for the time being, a channel is being created for Ivan to go (at least in the short-term) ... I'm NOT downplaying the recurvature idea, just not as soon as the ECMWF/GFS are going with ... maybe not as Extreme as the CMC, but close ...
SF
yep a TUTT low which the GFS is forecasting to move westward toward the WRN carib. at 36 hrs. you can see it well in the h250 field.
it's possible that Ivan may follow its progression for a time implying the continuation of a west to WNW track.
that GFS being the holy grail of the models is scary. But on point, we track the center. It can easily move in one direction while the outer edge of a storm begins to feel the "impact" on a steering force. Has anyone ever seen a slow motion frame of a a rubber ball against a wall? The "center" travels in the same direction until the center is acted upon...Netwon's Law
