Let's not get too crazy yet....

[al79philly]

I've read some of the comparisons on this board between Ivan and Camille and it seems like some folks are getting pretty scared of this hurricane. While it is best to be cautious, lets not get too crazy. Read these posts:

NHC Prediction for Frances - Last Thurs

12HR VT 03/0000Z 24.3N 75.4W 125 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 25.5N 77.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 26.4N 78.5W 125 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 27.0N 79.7W 125 KT

Floydbuster Prediction - Last Wed

12 HRS-- 21.8N-- 70.6W-- 125 kt
24 HRS-- 22.3N-- 73.9W-- 130 kt
36 HRS-- 23.0N-- 75.6W-- 125 kt
48 HRS-- 24.0N-- 77.5W-- 130 kt
72 HRS-- 25.3N-- 79.5W-- 135 kt

I couldn't find a quote, but I think Derek Ortt had similar predictions in terms of intensity.


Now.... my point is not to bash these three - they are all great meteorolgists, whose posts I enjoy very much....

My point is - no one really expected Frances to weaken to Cat 2 strength before landfall in the US. Conditions were ripe for a major Cat 4 at landfall - but it didn't happen, in spite of the predictions of the experts...


So, folks in Fla, keep a lookout, but remember, this thing could always weaken considerably... Let's hope that this happens (or that it turns into a 220 mph monster fish, which would be cool as well.)

[Anonymous]

It CANNOT be a fish!

It may be a fish for U.S. interest, but NOT for some poor folks down below us, in the Caribbean.

The fish word/term is used way to loosely.

[al79philly]

I meant fish in the sense that it hits NO land... And yes, that is near impossible ....

[skysummit]

It has already hit land. The poor island of Grenada has been leveled....that's enough land for my taste.

[al79philly]

Good point - I apologize and I agree that I don't want it to hit ANY land at all....