Something is wrong here.

#1 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:31 pm

Steve Lyons just said on the 6:50pm CDT update the Ivan has moved due westward the few hours and that storm this low in latitude have a hard time making a northward turn. He did say it could be a wobble. He also said he thought Ivan was taking southern part of the projected track.

So why are ALL of the model (except Canadian) continuing to show Ivan going NW very soon and moving further east with their projecteded tracks? By the way he shows NO signs of slowing down any. Wouldn't it be something if he didn't make that sharp turn?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:32 pm

Because they have absolutely no clue. They out to lunch basically.

Sean in New Orleans · #3 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:33 pm

Something may happen, but, models generally do much better in the winter, IMO, anyway. It will be pretty difficult to move such a massive storm with momentum up the east coast of Florida, IMO. This system will almost have to go stationery before it makes that kind of curve.

Opal storm · #4 Postby **Opal storm** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:35 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:Something may happen, but, models generally do much better in the winter, IMO, anyway. It will be pretty difficult to move such a massive storm with momentum up the east coast of Florida, IMO. This system will almost have to go stationery before it makes that kind of curve.

EXACTLY.That's why i'm not too worried about it.

WeatherNLU · #5 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:35 pm

Houstoner wrote:Because they have absolutely no clue. They out to lunch basically.

I'm going to have to agree with this. I just don't get it.

canegrl04 · #6 Postby **canegrl04** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:35 pm

I wonder how many times the models have flopped that badly

KatDaddy · #7 Postby **KatDaddy** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:35 pm

Almost a little S of due W in last IR frames. Damn low latitude currently and the models are whacked. A powerful CAT 4 turning W to NNW over the next 24 hours??........I find it hard to believe myself. In fact some the intialized models are already incorrect. The W and Central GOM trough better be a strong one. We do not need weak steering currents with a storm of this magnititude.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:36 pm

Add to the fact that there is NOTHING to pull Ivan so far north right now. The flow is E to W over the area where Ivan is.

Kennethb · #9 Postby **Kennethb** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:36 pm

Could be the low latitude and strength of the storm. Probably is harder to turn a strong storm, or take a little longer to turn. But remember Mitch how it was supposed to move NW. I know it was October. But Models may not pick up on the strength of ridges this far south.

Kennethb · #10 Postby **Kennethb** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:37 pm

Could be the low latitude and strength of the storm. Probably is harder to turn a strong storm, or take a little longer to turn. But remember Mitch how it was supposed to move NW. I know it was October. But Models may not pick up on the strength of ridges this far south. Perhaps having such a large land mass to its south has other effects too.

KatDaddy · #11 Postby **KatDaddy** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:37 pm

and the models may be predicting a much stronger trough than may actually occur.

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:39 pm

Isnt the trough that is suppose to pick Ivan up hitting the West Coast?

#13 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:40 pm

Hell....it could always follow that ULL into Central America.

SwampDawg · #14 Postby **SwampDawg** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:43 pm

That sure looks like a long wobble

Anonymous · #15 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:44 pm

Well, it wobbled N, then wobbled a little WSW, so it ended up going W for a whole loop of IR.

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:44 pm

Well, it wobbled N, then wobbled a little WSW, so it ended up going W for a whole loop of IR.

ido · #17 Postby **ido** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:44 pm

I don't know squat about weather, but from a (seemingly) logical perspective, I don't understand how something as big as Ivan clearly is can be forced into such a steep curve. What trough could be big/strong enough to do that? Seems like David and Goliath!
Of course, once again, I stress I know squat!
But I sure would like someone who understands to explain it to me!

#18 Postby **alicia-w** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:46 pm

I think we may be better off waiting to see what it actually does than saying which models are insane and which ones arent. None of us amateurs have a clue. NHC/TPC and our own Derek were remarkably close on Frances. Think they're earned the benefit of the doubt by now. They are, after all, pros.

Website · #19 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:48 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Almost a little S of due W in last IR frames. Damn low latitude currently and the models are whacked. A powerful CAT 4 turning W to NNW over the next 24 hours??........I find it hard to believe myself. In fact some the intialized models are already incorrect. The W and Central GOM trough better be a strong one. We do not need weak steering currents with a storm of this magnititude.

Exactly. This is really getting annoying now. Come on models, GET A CLUE! :roll:

#20 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:48 pm

Plenty of strong storms have turned fairly sharply . Conditions ahead of the storm will determine the path

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