Northward movement resumes at 00:45 GMT ...

[BReb]

after 4 straight hours of due west movement, Ivan showed a northward jog at 00:45. Stay turned.

[rjgator]

Looks that way to me

[Stormcenter]

after 4 straight hours of due west movement, Ivan showed a northward jog at 00:45. Stay turned.

Do you live in Florida? Stills looks primarily west to me.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[ROCK]

after 4 straight hours of due west movement, Ivan showed a northward jog at 00:45. Stay turned.

Do you live in Florida? Stills looks primarily west to me.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

west to me as well.....

[LCfromFL]

Almost looks like one of those kiddie movies "follow the bouncing ball!" (okay...so maybe the ball doesn't bounce very high - or very fast....work with me here!)

[BReb]

Certainly the long trend is west, but for 4 hours there was a straight line west and at 00:45 there's a clear jog north. Which means the next couple of loops are crucial to figure out what in blazes is going on here. If it's NW, then that's a strong signal the eastsiders are correct.

[clueless newbie]

after 4 straight hours of due west movement, Ivan showed a northward jog at 00:45. Stay turned.

That is really just one frame. Can be simply wobbling of the eye. While I expect a bit of northward movement, calling it after one frame is premature.

Btw, the CDO is almost perfect ring of deep red. When was the last time the eye was completely surrounded by deep red for the whole IR animation?

[Nimbus]

Taking out the stair stepping wobbles Ivan is still headed towards the intersection where 74-75W crosses 15N. If this trend continues he will be south of all the models soon.

[Derecho]

Certainly the long trend is west, but for 4 hours there was a straight line west and at 00:45 there's a clear jog north. Which means the next couple of loops are crucial to figure out what in blazes is going on here. If it's NW, then that's a strong signal the eastsiders are correct.

It's called "Trochoidal Wobble." Frances did the same thing, and it's going to trace out a fairly regular sine-wave path around the line of the actual track, with a new wobble direction every 2-4 hours.

And every west wobble will cause gloating posts from the Central-West GOM people I disagree with while the Carolina people I disagree with are silent, and every NW wobble will cause gloating posts from the Carolina people I disagree with while the Central-West GOM people I disagree with are silent.

[Stormsfury]

Taking out the stair stepping wobbles Ivan is still headed towards the intersection where 74-75W crosses 15N. If this trend continues he will be south of all the models soon.

If Ivan crosses SOUTH of 14.5ºN at 71ºW, he'll be south of the most southernmost 00z tropical model at 12z 9/9/04 ...

SF

[Harbormaster]

Ironically, there is a spec of dirt or something on my monitor where the eye just passed three frames prior to the last on that loop... It does take a NW jog, and the outflow seems to be pointing poleward, but I will keep my eye on the dirt particle and let you know. I am serious. I am a neat freak, but I am not about to clean the screen!

[dhweather]

We just get to hurry up and wait. FRUSTRATING!!

[Stormcenter]

Certainly the long trend is west, but for 4 hours there was a straight line west and at 00:45 there's a clear jog north. Which means the next couple of loops are crucial to figure out what in blazes is going on here. If it's NW, then that's a strong signal the eastsiders are correct.

It's called "Trochoidal Wobble." Frances did the same thing, and it's going to trace out a fairly regular sine-wave path around the line of the actual track, with a new wobble direction every 2-4 hours.

And every west wobble will cause gloating posts from the Central-West GOM people I disagree with while the Carolina people I disagree with are silent, and every NW wobble will cause gloating posts from the Carolina people I disagree with while the Central-West GOM people I disagree with are silent.

What about the Florida people I disagree with Mr. Derecho? I see you failed to mention them and why is that?

[BReb]

Okay, the 1:15 frame just came out, and it looks more or less west again.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Okay, the 1:15 frame just came out, and it looks more or less west again.

Because it's moving west. It's going to bobble along...

[clueless newbie]

Okay, the 1:15 frame just came out, and it looks more or less west again.

It looks unbelievable! Perfect cycle.

The S-N elongation disappeared and no significant northward movement so far.

[hookemfins]

If you look hard, the last frame of any satellite loop is going to look like a movement different from the previous frames. This is caused by the different shapes of either the eye or the coud patterns. This is also called an optical illusion.

Rather than worry about every movement frame by frame, look at the overall movement over several hours.

Here's what you do. Mark where Ivan is now then come back in around 6 hours and see where he is. That is when you can tell if Ivan has moved wnw or w or nw or whatever.

[Agua]

Put your cursor right on the eye from the beginning of the "due west" portion of the movement (~ 20:45z). The apparent north jog is largely illusional based upon the rounding out of the CDO into a near perfect circle.

[BReb]

1:45 is out- due west.

Ivan says "I don't need no stinking ridge."

[wxwatcher2]

Ivan is now it's own weather enviornment