TPC sez Tampa...GFS sez Me!

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Scott_inVA
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TPC sez Tampa...GFS sez Me!

#1 Postby Scott_inVA » Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:11 pm

FWIW, GFS returns to a hard to port turn into NC/VA :roll:

BTW, Frannie dumped 5" here since 10P Tuesday. Flooding on this side of VA some of the worst since 1985.

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

Scott
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#2 Postby wlfpack81 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:13 pm

Yea I saw that. Wouldn't be good. Family and friends back in Hampton, VA. Of course the GFS has been on crack lately so to speak but still an interesting model run none the least.
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#3 Postby Scott_inVA » Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:23 pm

wlfpack81 wrote:Yea I saw that. Wouldn't be good. Family and friends back in Hampton, VA. Of course the GFS has been on crack lately so to speak but still an interesting model run none the least.


Having a very hard time buying the GFS.

WVL illustrates nothing ahead of the TC to indicate such a northern component. NOTHING.

At current forward speed or even a tad slower, Ivan needs an immediate turn to the left (meaning forward motion NNW) to clip Hispaniola. If not at a heading of ~320° Thursday evening, the storm then must go due north to hit Haiti. How the hell that happens I don't know.

I can't find a soul who can make the case this TC gets between Cuba and Hispaniola. Any takers...please sound off.

Scott
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#4 Postby wlfpack81 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:32 pm

Oh I don't buy the GFS either but just saying it's a very interesting run to look at. The GFS has been pretty shaky lately in regards to these tropicals.
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#5 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:34 pm

Hey Scott... could you tell me then why the ECMWF takes Ivan to SC after clipping S FL? Just wondering here...
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#6 Postby Scott_inVA » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:09 pm

yoda wrote:Hey Scott... could you tell me then why the ECMWF takes Ivan to SC after clipping S FL? Just wondering here...


ummm...not really with precision.

I'm okay w/EC to central Cuba however that IMP seems way too far south to be influenced by the CONUS trof passing well to the north. Behind this, a 1027 High drops from Vermont into the Gulf of Maine...but isn't building b/c of Ivan. The EC and GFS are picking up the High but I still can't make a case the TC bolts north or even NE under a weakening Ridge while still at a relatively low latitude.

Heck, I was wrong last week and may be this week but a Cuban Floyd or Hugo doesn't seem logical right now.

Scott
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