Ivan Advisories

[yoda]

[quote="hurricanefloyd5"][/quote]

a blank post hurricanefloyd5? Hmmmm...

[mobilebay]

Nope, it's slowing.

Speed between the last recon of the last flight around 8PM and the first recon VORTEX of this flight was 13 kts....

Speed between the two VORTEXes of this flight was 10 kts.

Agree. Seen that on the last Vortex message.

[tronbunny]

I think he's decided to evacuate.

[PurdueWx80]

Lightning in the eye = dry air has somehow mixed in there.

Nope. Eywall lightning is a common feature of rapidly intensifying hurricanes.

There used to be an excellent paper on the subject on the FSU site by Rich Henning, an Air Force Reserve recon crewmember who was in grad school there...no longer on the site, sadly. Was either a Thesis or Dissertation.

Ok, thanks, it's good to know this. I'll have to check this out at school tomorrow in between recon and satellite fixes. I haven't had a ton of experience in tropical meteorology, but I assumed to have lightning and/or hail you must have some dry air. I guess there must be some hellacious updrafts then. The atmosphere will never cease to amaze me.

[Jetman]

The eye looks distinct, very impressive, the eyewall not that much, not that symmetric and it looks like an eyewall-replacement cycle is about to start.

The outflow got better during last hours, especially on the Southern side.

Models all bring Ivan near Florida, what's going to be important also in intensity measurements is how a low emerging from the Rockies is going to impact the high pressure ridge north of Ivan, at +48 to +72 the ridge weakens and Ivan slows over Cuba...would mean land influence more a topic of the system.

we'll see

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTBW 090550
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
150 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...WEAK SFC BNDY ANALYZED OVER APALACHEE BAY
NE INTO SE GA. DRY AIR SHOWS UP NICELY IN W/V IMAGERY. STILL HAVE A
NW TO SE MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE FA...AS EVIDENCED BY CURRENT
SHRA OFF THE S COAST...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY. SHEAR AXIS
WILL LIE OVER THE CENTRAL FA...SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS THERE...AS
WELL AS DOWN SOUTH WHERE COULD SEE BETTER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO AN ERLY PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH..BUT EXPECT WEAK ENOUGH PATTERN TO ALLOW GOOD SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

FOR FRI...ETA AND GFS MOVE THE SHEAR AXIS TO THE NRN FA AS WELL AS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE UP THERE. THIS AXIS IS IN THE ZONE BETWEEN A
RIDGE ALOFT AND A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. SFC RIDGE AXIS ALSO
FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH AND BEGIN TO BRIDGE ACROSS TO ANOTHER SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN THE GAP BEHIND DEPARTING FRANCES. A WEAK SFC
INVERTED TROUGH FORMS BETWEEN THE TWO ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST. CLIMO
FOR THIS FLOW REGIME CALLS FOR BEST POPS ALONG THE COAST...AND ACROSS
THE ENTIRE NRN COUNTIES. WILL BLEND PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS WITH THIS
CLIMO.

SATURDAY...THE ETA HAS THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST CLOSE OFF...
WHEREAS THE GFS DEEPENS IT...BUT BOTH WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE FA.
SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR POP PATTERN TO FRI...BUT WITH STRONGER SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IVAN TO THE SE AND THE HIGHS TO THE NORTH
TSTMS SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
PERIOD DEPENDS ON FUTURE TRACK OF IVAN. LATEST NHC FORECAST BRINGS
IVAN UP AND INTO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS STRENGTH OF RIDGE ALONG WITH THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE WEST CONTINUE TO CHANGE
FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THAT FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS. FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS FOR
NOW UNTIL EXACT TRACK OF IVAN BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. BY
WEDNESDAY IVAN SHOULD BE A MEMORY WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&.MARINE...FLOW TRANSITIONS TODAY TO A EASTERLY PATTERN THAT WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF THRU THE WEEKEND. EXPECT NICE BOATING WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHEN IVAN WILL START TO INFLUENCE THE AREA.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 74 89 74 / 60 20 60 20
FMY 89 75 89 75 / 60 20 50 20
GIF 89 74 91 74 / 60 20 40 20
SRQ 88 75 89 75 / 60 20 50 20
BKV 89 72 89 72 / 40 20 60 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

[USAwx1]

Lightning in the eye = dry air has somehow mixed in there.

Nope. Eywall lightning is a common feature of rapidly intensifying hurricanes.

There used to be an excellent paper on the subject on the FSU site by Rich Henning, an Air Force Reserve recon crewmember who was in grad school there...no longer on the site, sadly. Was either a Thesis or Dissertation.

See Molinari et al. 1994, 1999.

Molinari, J., P. K. Moore, V. P. Idone, R. W. Henderson, and A. B. Saljoughy, 1994: Cloud-to-ground lightning in Hurricane Andrew. J. Geophys. Res., 99, 16 665-16 676.

Molinari, J., P. Moore, and V. Idone, 1999: Convective structure of hurricanes as revealed by lightning locations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, in press.

[yoda]

But I like this part of the AFD...
EXPECT NICE BOATING WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHEN IVAN WILL START TO INFLUENCE THE AREA.

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KEYW 090704
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
NOTE:KBYX RADAR HAS RECENTLY GONE DOWN DUE TO A AIR FLOW PROBLEM IN
THE TRANSMITTER CABINET. ETS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED...BUT NO ESTIMATE ON
A TIME FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

BUT...LATEST AVAILABLE KBYX RADAR LOOP WHICH ENDED ABOUT 545Z...THE
ONLY SHOWER ECHOES WERE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTREME OF OUR MARINE
ZONES. OTHER NEARBY RADARS SHOW ECHOES WELL TO OUR NORTH...JUST OFF
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE MAINLAND AND ANOTHER AREA JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THESE ARE ALL MOVING GENERALLY TO THE NORTH ON A
LIGHT S/SW STEERING FLOW IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE LOCAL AREA
HAS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST.

.FORECASTS...
NOTE: FORECAST PRODUCTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED DUE TO NHC GUIDANCE
ON HURRICANE IVAN.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. THE
RIDGE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TURNING OUR FLOW
DEEPLY OUT OF THE EAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS LOCALLY. THIS
TREND REMAINS MORE PRONOUNCED MORESO FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXTENDING
INTO SATURDAY IN A GENERALLY E/W ORIENTED AREA NORTH OF THE
CIRCULATION OF IVAN IN THE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF THIS
AREA CURRENTLY ALIGNED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON GOES SOUNDER.
ETA AND GFS HAVE RESPONDED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS DURING THOSE
PERIODS. SO WITH THAT IN COMBINATION WITH AN EASTERLY STEERING
FLOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND ADJUST OUR CHANCES DOWN BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT
OR SO FOR EACH PERIOD...STARTING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THE
NUMBERS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE RANGE.

THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE TRACK OF
RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE IVAN. LATEST FORECAST SHOWS A TRACK
ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE STILL
REMAINS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT...SEE THE LATEST
DISCUSSIONS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER...BUT WITH SUCH A
STRONG SYSTEM THE AFFECT WILL STILL BE FELT IN THE LOCAL AREA EVEN
IF A SMALL CHANGE OF COURSE IS FORECAST. THE LATEST MODELS STILL
SHOW AN ENVELOPE OF ERROR FROM WELL WEST OF THE KEYS TO A TRACK
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME...FOR EITHER
THE WEEKEND OR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT VERY HIGH.

&&
.MARINE...
NICE BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BACKING BREEZES.
SOME MODERATION IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY OUT OF THE EAST. NO
CUATIONARY HEADLINES ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM. OF COURSE
WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO IVAN. BOATERS AND OTHER RESIDENTS IN THE KEYS SHOULD USE THE NEXT
DAY OR SO TO PLAN FOR THESE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.

&&.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG KMIA-KEYW AIR ROUTE...AND AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS FOR TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED MVFR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AVERAGE TOPS ~FL350 WITH MAX TOPS TO
~FL450. MEAN WIND VECTOR IS 11010KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 89 80 89 80 / 40 40 40 30
MARATHON 91 80 91 80 / 40 40 40 30
&&

.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/DIGITAL...........MR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...............D. FELTGEN

[hurricanefloyd5]

mother!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! now im going to be sick now OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! this isn't happening now or ever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTAE 090545
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2004

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT THROUGH THE CWA
AS UPPER 60 DEWPOINT AIR FILTERS IN & A W-NW SURFACE FLOW. 00Z TLH
SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.58 INCHES...LI OF -2.5...CAPE
OF 790 J/KG...& A SW-W SURFACE FLOW...WHILE W-NW FLOW 5K FT ALOFT.
SECONDARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL GA TO NE FROM LOW. THIS
WILL REINFORCE A BIT COOLER & DRIER AIR OVER CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER
SW GA. POPS WILL BE VERY LOW TODAY...WITH MAIN AREA OVER FAR SE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE HIGH TO FILTER DRY AIR INTO THE CWA...KEEPING POPS LOW &
TEMPS A BIT COOLER. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY. OF COURSE EYES ARE LOOKING SOUTH FOR THE PATH OF HUR. IVAN
AS IT AFFECTS THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY A TRANSITION DAY WITH EAST FLOW INTO THE CWA...A BIT MORE
CHANCES OF RAIN AS THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY FOCUS SOME CONVECTION.
THEN INTO SUNDAY EAST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE WILL AFFECT FROM IVAN.
MODELS VERY UNSURE OF THE PATH OF HUR. IVAN...WITH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MOVING IT NEAR SOUTH FL ON MONDAY TO TUESDAY. STEERING FLOW
APPEARS TO COME FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH...BUT SOME UPPER TROUGHING IS
OVER THE EAST COAST...OR WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE OUT WEST &
THE BERMUDA HIGH...SO THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR IVAN TO AFFECT FL.
TIME WILL TELL. WILL KEEP EXTENDED AS IS UNTIL LATER PERIODS. TEMPERATURES TO THE AROUND 90 INLAND...UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
FOR LOWS...UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS NOW 2 FT OR LESS WITH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. DIRECTION
SHOULD BE SW-W...BECOMING W-NW WITH BOUNDARY...THEN WINDS BECOMING
MORE NE-E FRIDAY & INTO THE WEEKEND. THEN UNCERTAINTY WITH IVAN'S
INFLUENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH SOME DRY AIR...RH VALUES LOWER TO 40S &
50S...REMAINING WELL ABOVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TLH 91 70 92 70/ -- -- 10 --
PFN 89 73 90 72/ -- -- 10 --
DHN 89 68 90 69/ 00 -- -- 00
ABY 90 68 91 69/ 00 -- -- 00
VLD 91 68 91 69/ -- -- -- --
CTY 90 70 91 70/ 20 -- 20 20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

[senorpepr]

[quote="hurricanefloyd5"][/quote]

Ahh... speechless?

[PurdueWx80]

Lightning in the eye = dry air has somehow mixed in there.

Nope. Eywall lightning is a common feature of rapidly intensifying hurricanes.

There used to be an excellent paper on the subject on the FSU site by Rich Henning, an Air Force Reserve recon crewmember who was in grad school there...no longer on the site, sadly. Was either a Thesis or Dissertation.

See Molinari et al. 1994, 1999.

Molinari, J., P. K. Moore, V. P. Idone, R. W. Henderson, and A. B. Saljoughy, 1994: Cloud-to-ground lightning in Hurricane Andrew. J. Geophys. Res., 99, 16 665-16 676.

Molinari, J., P. Moore, and V. Idone, 1999: Convective structure of hurricanes as revealed by lightning locations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, in press.

Thanks a bunch!!

[yoda]

09/0645 UTC 13.8N 69.7W T6.5/6.5 IVAN -- Atlantic Ocean


I thought a CAT 5 had 7.0/7.0?

[yoda]

So do I! Thanks guys!

[USAwx1]

USAwx1--so you think there's not much chance it'
ll hit the East coast of Florida directly (like so many of the models are *this* close to saying)?

if your asking me whether I buy the GFS idea over the past several runs, no I Dont. I currently favor a blend of the 0z ECMWF/UKMET/GGEM/NOGAPS.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144s.gif

The GFS solutiuon is CLEARLY the outlier

[Jetman]

6.5 is 127 kt and 935 mb

7 is 140 kt and 921 mb

[yoda]

6.5 is 127 kt and 935 mb

7 is 140 kt and 921 mb

I know.. latest vortex is 922 MB..so hows that a 6.5/6.5 is my question? and being 160 mph... that is approx. 140 kts..

[USAwx1]

Lightning in the eye = dry air has somehow mixed in there.

Nope. Eywall lightning is a common feature of rapidly intensifying hurricanes.

There used to be an excellent paper on the subject on the FSU site by Rich Henning, an Air Force Reserve recon crewmember who was in grad school there...no longer on the site, sadly. Was either a Thesis or Dissertation.

See Molinari et al. 1994, 1999.

Molinari, J., P. K. Moore, V. P. Idone, R. W. Henderson, and A. B. Saljoughy, 1994: Cloud-to-ground lightning in Hurricane Andrew. J. Geophys. Res., 99, 16 665-16 676.

Molinari, J., P. Moore, and V. Idone, 1999: Convective structure of hurricanes as revealed by lightning locations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, in press.

Thanks a bunch!!

Sure. Their Great reads and will probably help you. in short though, (as you probably know) the Environmnet around the eyewall is symmetrically neutral, so that kind of convection with strong updrafts normally indicates that the symmetric neutrality has been disturbed.

[NC George]

South Florida will be just catching up with NC if if gets 4 this year. I'm looking at a poster on my wall of 5 hitting NC in 4 years (96-99.) We've had a spate of strikes since then, too (Isabel, Charley, Alex off the top of my head.) If I were in Florida, I'd be worried about any hurricane, no matter what category, in the next couple of weeks. If it's a rainmaker, the whole state could go underwater (<---dramatic hyperbole) like eastern NC did after Dennis and Floyd.