LETS WELCOME TD#10!!!

[yoda]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00410.html

A fish storm... THANKFULLY!!

Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 09, 2004


...New tropical depression forms over the far eastern Atlantic
southwest of the Azores Islands...

at 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 35.8 north...longitude 34.1 west or about
420 miles... 675 km...west-southwest of the Azores.

The depression is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph
...17 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continued for
the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the depression could
move across the Azores Islands on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb...29.91 inches.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...35.8 N... 34.1 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1013 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[birdwomn]

we could use more fish!

[Matthew5]

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 09, 2004



satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
well-defined low pressure system located about 365 nmi southwest of
the Azores Islands has acquired enough deep convection over and in
the northeastern semicircle to be designated Tropical Depression
Ten. At 09/00z...ship fqfm located 120 nmi north...and ship fqwz
located 140 nmi east...of the center reported 20-kt surface winds
and seas ranging from 13-19 feet. Both reports were outside of the
deep convection. Also...a 08/2131z Quikscat overpass indicated
25-30 kt uncontaminated winds in the northwest quadrant. Based on
this information and a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of 25 kt
from TAFB...the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 045/09. T.D. Ten is embedded in weak
southwesterly mid-/upper-level steering flow...which all of the
models maintain for the next 48-72 hours. The forecast track brings
the cyclone across the Azores Islands in 36-48 hours. After that
...The system is expected to continue to weaken and become absorbed
by a larger extratopical low and/or frontal system forecast to push
southeastward to near the Azores Islands by 72-96 hours.
Little change in intensity is expected until the cyclone reaches the
Azores. However...during the next 24 hours...it is possible that in
some of the stronger convective bursts that winds could briefly
reach tropical storm strength...but the overall shear pattern and
relatively cool SSTs favor little change in the sustained wind
speeds. The official intensity forecast is below the SHIPS
intensity model...which brings the cyclone up to 35 kt and 43 kt in
12- and 24-hours...respectively.

Forecaster Stewart


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 09/0900z 35.8n 34.1w 30 kt
12hr VT 09/1800z 36.6n 32.8w 30 kt
24hr VT 10/0600z 37.2n 31.0w 30 kt
36hr VT 10/1800z 37.8n 28.9w 30 kt
48hr VT 11/0600z 38.3n 26.6w 25 kt...dissipating
72hr VT 12/0600z 39.5n 23.0w 25 kt...dissipating
96hr VT 13/0600z...absorbed by frontal system

I see this if the convection wraps becoming a tropical storm!