Ivan Advisories

[yoda]

Damage from winds of over 200 mph is equal to an atomic bomb being dropped.Think of Hiroshima and Nagasoki

Well, not really....

[Sanibel]

Is that a slight veer more west in the last frame? (Not true west, but straightening out the turn a little)

[Pebbles]

I would get banned for typing what I really want to say in shock (just woke up) so will keep it clean... HOLY WATSOOLIEEESSS!!!!!!

[APRS-CW0262]

There is nothing to buy. I am in Florida in an area that only lost power for five hours in broward County and there is no Milk or meat on the shelves at any of my local grocery stores.

cmon, just go to publix, they are well stocked by now. i live in Ne broward which was hardest hit by frances and work in dade and have had no trouble since tuesday finding what i need. I had a juicy steak last night from publix and fresh fish the day before.

[drezee]

677
WTNT34 KNHC 091153
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...IVAN...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...CONTINUES
TOWARD JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT
AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR JAMAICA
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST OR ABOUT
455 MILES...735 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE
TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.

IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
160 MPH...255 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 919 MB...27.14
INCHES ABOUT TWO HOURS...BUT IT HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY AND IT IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...14.2 N... 70.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[drezee]

oops 921

[spaceisland]

As a fellow Brevardian, the statement "C'mon, just go to Publix" cut real deeply from somebody who obviously is enjoying steak while some of the rest of us are eating Granola bars.

I tried to find food for my family.

Publix was empty.

MAYBE a truck today.

That was cruel.

[arlwx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...IVAN...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...CONTINUES
TOWARD JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT
AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR JAMAICA
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST OR ABOUT
455 MILES...735 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE
TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.

IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
160 MPH...255 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 919 MB...27.14
INCHES ABOUT TWO HOURS...BUT IT HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY AND IT IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...14.2 N... 70.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

[alicia-w]

Wow, unbelievable. While scarier than almost anything I can imagine, I cant help but be awed by this incredible force of nature.....

[cycloneye]

[code]INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...IVAN...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...CONTINUES
TOWARD JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT
AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR JAMAICA
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST OR ABOUT
455 MILES...735 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE
TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.

IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
160 MPH...255 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 919 MB...27.14
INCHES ABOUT TWO HOURS...BUT IT HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY AND IT IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...14.2 N... 70.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

[APRS-CW0262]

I totaly agree with you spaceIsland

[Hyperstorm]

Winds will not demolish a mountain. Let's try to say within reason.

I should have rephrased that. I'm talking about everything constructed over the mountains...

[drezee]

670
URNT12 KNHC 091141
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1141Z
B. 14 DEG 12 MIN N
70 DEG 36 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2394 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 088 DEG 156 KT
G. 357 DEG 007 NM
H. 921 MB
I. 9 C/ 3057 M
J. 20 C/ 3057 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 1009A IVAN OB 30
MAX FL WIND 156 KT N QUAD 1139Z.

[Innotech]

As a fellow Brevardian, the statement "C'mon, just go to Publix" cut real deeply from somebody who obviously is enjoying steak while some of the rest of us are eating Granola bars.

I tried to find food for my family.

Publix was empty.

MAYBE a truck today.

That was cruel.

granola bars are underrated. I get up too early in the morning for breakfast. I exist on snacks in the morning and fast food at college. Only when I get home do I get a good meal. Trust me, youll live. At least youve got food to eat at all.

[yoda]

670
URNT12 KNHC 091141
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1141Z
B. 14 DEG 12 MIN N
70 DEG 36 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2394 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 088 DEG 156 KT
G. 357 DEG 007 NM
H. 921 MB
I. 9 C/ 3057 M
J. 20 C/ 3057 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 1009A IVAN OB 30
MAX FL WIND 156 KT N QUAD 1139Z.

Where do you see 180 mph Flight Winds?

[donsutherland1]

Ivan briefly reached an extrapolated pressure of 916 mb. Given the environment around him, he has reached such rarified pressure in spite of long historical odds (even if one considers the small sample size).

JB called for this to happen and he deserves a lot of credit for his call. I believe DT also noted this somewhere and he also deserves credit.

[Thunder44]

156kt winds is 179.4 mph so that about 180mph.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

As a fellow Brevardian, the statement "C'mon, just go to Publix" cut real deeply from somebody who obviously is enjoying steak while some of the rest of us are eating Granola bars.

I tried to find food for my family.

Publix was empty.

MAYBE a truck today.

That was cruel.

granola bars are underrated. I get up too early in the morning for breakfast. I exist on snacks in the morning and fast food at college. Only when I get home do I get a good meal. Trust me, youll live. At least youve got food to eat at all.

you just showed your age....and the "trust me you'll live"...want kinda sh*t is that...these people are suffering, while you stoll off to your daycare...ummm i mean college!

[rockyman]

Looks like they are honing in on extreme SW Fla...the new GFDL has moved a little more left and is now left of the official track (was previously right of the official track)...I'd expect (though I'm sure I'll be wrong) the 12z tropical suite to move back west and stop this fish nonsense.

[Innotech]

670
URNT12 KNHC 091141
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1141Z
B. 14 DEG 12 MIN N
70 DEG 36 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2394 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 088 DEG 156 KT
G. 357 DEG 007 NM
H. 921 MB
I. 9 C/ 3057 M
J. 20 C/ 3057 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 1009A IVAN OB 30
MAX FL WIND 156 KT N QUAD 1139Z.

Where do you see 180 mph Flight Winds?

177 mph winds, rounded up to 180