Ivan Advisories

[T'Bonz]

Nogaps and LBar were the most accurate with Frances, I kept the maps for several days and just looked over them.

I'm not liking how they look now for THIS hurricane.

[catzmeow]

Gulfhills,

I also live in Tallahassee. You don't know me from adam, but if this heads towards us, here is my e-mail: spritgrrrl@yahoo.com. Please feel free to contact us if you need anything. My husband and brother live with us, and I'm sure they'd be willing to help out, as I would.

Catz

[ColinD]

160-165

[Josephine96]

Definitely a dangerous storm for sure

[CaptinCrunch]

Cat 4 for Jamaica
Cat 4 for Cuba
Cat 4 for South Fla.
Cat 5 if it goes to Fla. Panhandle

[yankeelmbb]

is this shift west more due to a wobble? will we see another shift slightly east at 5 PM....and then a little shift back to the west at 11 PM....and back and forth with the same pattern until landfall?

[ColinD]

too early

[patsmsg]

170

[PurdueWx80]

You will see many people on this board talking crap about the Canadian, but it has performed better than any other global model so far (by eyeing it...I haven't actually sat down to prove this...but I know the GFS has been proven to be too far right on every run). Anyway, the GEM has been in the Gulf for nearly every run over the last 3-4 days. Since it is being consistent, I'd like to think it has the best feel for the large-scale pattern. The ensembles are just different members with the physics and such tweaked a bit. That's why they are all different. Usually the further out in time, the more spread you'll see. It's incredible that there is very little spread on the map I've shown above, which only increases my confidence in the GEM. We shall see in the end if it was the best performer, or the one that was wrong consistently.

[lilyv]

New information from Indian River County-can listen to briefing from 10:00am EST today.

http://www.irces.com/Emergency_Manageme ... Update.htm

[canegrl04]

I'm calling for 170 -175

[T'Bonz]

I live in Parkland and have not been able to find milk or meat in Publix oin Days. Does anyone know any of these stores that have any food???

It varies by store. Some stores have milk, some not. My Publix had no eggs, but had milk. Yesterday, I was in another Publix close to my house (Atlantic and Pine Island) and they had a full stock of refrigerated items (I got my eggs there.) It might be worth the trip for you, I'm not sure where in Parkland you are.

It all depends if they lost power during Frances. It was patchy. We didn't lost power, but our usual Publix did. The other Publix that I mentioned (to which I usually don't go since it's filled with slow cranky old people), didn't lose power.

Good luck. Batten down for Ivan the Terrible.

[Guest]

Gilbert Does that bring back memories? Everyone said what if Gilbert or Mitch turned north. Here we go!

[Innotech]

160 tops

[BlizzardNole]

What about this quote from the NHC:

THEREAFTER..THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND...INCREASING SHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL CAUSE WEAKENING.

I thought the waters there in the FL straits and eastern Gulf were just as warm?

[Tri-State_1925]

There was nothing to impede Frances either for most of its course, but that never fully developed. The waters were just as warm.

That said, I don't see why 175-180 would be out of the question at some point.

To say that this is going to be a sub-900 mb storm...that's pretty bold. Would be very nice stuff for the modern GOES though.

[caribepr]

Well, I guess when the Navy told my friend in Key West there was going to maybe be big trouble, it wasn't so insane It's a long drive out but better now than being stuck later.

[PurdueWx80]

12Z GFS now has a direct hit on Miami from due South!!!

[dhweather]

On current track, Ivan will pass South of Jamacia.

Thoe more West he goes, the more likely the GEM
is "right"

[Josephine96]

I'm thinking 175-180 as well..