Consistency is a Virtue the GFS needs...

[PurdueWx80]

The GEM sure as hell has it. Mark a notch for ANOTHER Gulf hit according to this model.

[SunnyThoughts]

Wow...thats as far west as I've seen any model.

[rockyman]

Not to get into the "consistent" vs "flip-flopping" Presidential contest....but being consistently WRONG is not a virtue...Not that the Canadian is wrong, but the fact that it is consistent does not mean that it is correct.

[PurdueWx80]

Yes, we are in agreement then rocky. I will forever poo on the GEM/CMC/Canadian if it turns out to be wrong. Seeing this morning's run has increased my confidence that it is correct though...see my other post.

[jlauderdal]

Yes, we are in agreement then rocky. I will forever poo on the GEM/CMC/Canadian if it turns out to be wrong. Seeing this morning's run has increased my confidence that it is correct though...see my other post.

gfs "consistently" for about 10 runs in a row the weekend before frances hit showed a direct hit on miami and that didn't materialize. of course this is closer in time but still.

[Ixolib]

So... On September 15, it's sitting on my doorstep. Any suggestions on the degree of concern I should begin assuming??

[rockyman]

Since Ivan is finally starting to gain some substantial latitude...I think the Canadian solution is looking less and less likely.

[PurdueWx80]

Fair enough, rockyman, but notice the Canadian also has Ivan moving over or just a hair south of Jamaica. We'll see in a day or so whether this verifies.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm with you Purdue, the CMC has been most consistant and even the UKMET has come westward again. With the trough to dig in the west one can olny expect that the ridge will build in the east which by that time Ivan should be at the western tip of Cuba. A ridge in the east with no trough to pick Ivan up and send eastward across Florida can mean only one thing, north toward the upper eastern half of the Gulf Coast.

Did you note in the NHC 11:00 Discussion that they have now gone from a trough forming in the middle of the GOM as the reason for a eastward turn to now the Bahamas ridge's strength as being the main player? I mean come on, how long are they going to hang onto this east turn crap? I just don't see it with the ridge in the east expected to build as the trough digs in the west, simple METEOROLOGY here!!!

[tailgater]

I'm in agreement this could pan out, the trough is lifting in the central US and if the high currently over the eastern seaboard pushes a little futher west .But my question is if that happens and the ridge over northern Mexico builds east the two merge we could have a ISODORE own our hands or the two ridges push him almost due west toward US MEX. border. I know highly unlikely but is there a chance, I haven't heard any such talk on this board like so I guess I might be answering my own question

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I have asked the same question as you Dennis earlier today, with no response. I don't want another to hit Florida. I was just looking at the WV loops and (to me) the trough left by Frances looks like it is shrinking and weakening while the ridge is building westward. Also the Ridge over Texas and LA seems to be geeting stronger and moving further into the Gulf. I just can't see how Ivan is going to turn Northward through this unless the Highs just collapse real soon. I am getting the feeling Ivan is not going to go as planned and we will be looking at some new tracks before long.

[Nimbus]

How fitting, as the remnants of Frances race north through Canada the Canadian model lifts out her remnants and bridges the ridge. Tomorrow the water vapor imagery will verify whether the bridging has taken place or not, so this model is worth watching.