Ivan Advisories

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks Ed, absolutely incredible.

[spaceisland]

NOT south of Jamaica... that would put them on that bad right front quadrant that many of us here in Central Florida experienced with both Charley and Frances. Let's pray that it passes with Jamaica below and to the west!

[Novacane]

DT puts it in FL

Derek puts it in FL

NHC puts it in FL

All have been pretty reliable this year...and the trend is your friend.....

Exactly my thoughts ColdWaterConch Even JB has FL in his landfall area -- if you count the panhandle. My guess is he'll shift this east on his next forecast.

[BUD]

I just no matter who or what is in or will be in IVANS path I think we all just need to stay safe and alert and pray for those already affected by IVAN

[JTD]

I don't care if it weakens later in the forecast track....Right now....I think we are looking at seeing both Cuba and Jamaica leveled. I am just terrified of what this storm will do to these 2 countries.

So, my poll: Do you believe Ivan will be an epic disaster along the lines of Hurricane Mitch?

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IVAN      09L

INITIAL TIME  12Z SEP  9

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            14.2             70.8           290./13.0
   6            15.0             71.8           307./12.2
  12            15.7             72.8           307./12.3
  18            16.5             74.0           304./14.3
  24            17.4             74.9           316./12.2
  30            17.8             76.1           286./12.0
  36            18.1             76.8           295./ 7.6
  42            18.3             77.7           284./ 8.4
  48            18.7             78.3           299./ 6.9
  54            19.0             78.9           298./ 6.7
  60            19.5             79.4           320./ 6.6
  66            20.1             80.0           313./ 8.8
  72            20.9             80.7           321./ 9.5
  78            21.6             81.4           315./10.0
  84            22.4             81.8           331./ 8.1
  90            23.2             82.2           334./ 9.5
  96            24.1             82.7           334./ 9.7
 102            25.0             82.8           347./ 8.7
 108            25.9             82.8             1./ 9.0
 114            26.6             83.0           347./ 7.3
 120            27.4             83.0             1./ 8.6
 126            28.3             82.9             7./ 8.2

Now to the SW coast of Florida

[yoda]

Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 29a


Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on September 09, 2004



...NOAA hurricane reconnaissance plane shows that Ivan continues
to be extremely dangerous...heading for western Caribbean Sea...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane
Warning will likely be required for the Cayman Islands later today.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for
the Dominican Republic from Barahona to perdenales and a tropical
storm watch from palenque westward to Barahona.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for central and eastern Cuba from the
province of Matanzas eastward.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 2 PM AST...1800z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located by a
NOAA reconnaissance plane near latitude 14.8 north...longitude
72.0 west or about 360 miles...580 km...southeast of Kingston
Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24
km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. On this track the hurricane will be nearing Jamaica on
Friday.

Ivan is a extremely dangerous category five hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale with maximum sustained winds near 160
mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in
intensity are expected during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

Latest minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft was 923 mb...27.26 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.

Repeating the 2 PM AST position...14.8 N... 72.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 923 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

Forecaster Avila

[Canelaw99]

WOW!!! He's a good looking storm, that's for sure!!!! Poor Jamaica though! Looks itty bitty compared to him....

[Canelaw99]

WOW!!! He's a good looking storm, that's for sure!!!! Poor Jamaica though! Looks itty bitty compared to him....

[~SirCane]

I think there's a chance that Ivan may pass just South of Jamaica. I hope this happens so they don't get the full brunt of the storm!

[Brent]

Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 29a

Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on September 09, 2004

...NOAA hurricane reconnaissance plane shows that Ivan continues
to be extremely dangerous...heading for western Caribbean Sea...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane
Warning will likely be required for the Cayman Islands later today.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for
the Dominican Republic from Barahona to perdenales and a tropical
storm watch from palenque westward to Barahona.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for central and eastern Cuba from the
province of Matanzas eastward.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 2 PM AST...1800z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located by a
NOAA reconnaissance plane near latitude 14.8 north...longitude
72.0 west or about 360 miles...580 km...southeast of Kingston
Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24
km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. On this track the hurricane will be nearing Jamaica on
Friday.

Ivan is a extremely dangerous category five hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale with maximum sustained winds near 160
mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in
intensity are expected during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

Latest minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft was 923 mb...27.26 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.

Repeating the 2 PM AST position...14.8 N... 72.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 923 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

Forecaster Avila

[Canelaw99]

WOW!!! He's a good looking storm, that's for sure!!!! Poor Jamaica though! Looks itty bitty compared to him....

[canegrl04]

left right left right left right left...

[wlfpack81]

Well when you look at the current trend and models (not counting the GFS due to some questionable behavior) I think anywhere from the Keys over to the Panhandle, over to Mobile, AL need to watch this storm. If this ridge builds in SW fast enough the storm could get closer to the 85-90W lat line in the GOM before moving ne-ward. Would put Mobile over to FL Panhandle under the gun.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Again, NHC forecaster Avila mentioned the chance that once Ivan enters the GOM that it may weaken due to shear and I assume land interaction.

Anyone else, specifically the experienced weather watchers and Mets on this board see this forecast coming to fruition??

Even with the weakening the NHC still has it hitting SW FL at 135 mph sustained...


I'm just wondering what everyone thinks because it will be in the same area where Charley exploded and I know they said shear was possible with Charley but that didn't inhibit him...


Thoughts/opinions...!?

[cycloneye]

http://weather.net-waves.com/td09.php

In this great link is the grafic of the models and the latest run.GFDL makes landfall near Tampa Bay,UKMET near Cedar Key.

[jabber]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_09.gif

[Brent]

URNT12 KNHC 091805
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1740Z
B. 14 DEG 40 MIN N
71 DEG 49 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2420 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 199 DEG 132 KT
G. 114 DEG 06 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 13 C/ 3058 M
J. 20 C/ 3039 M
K. 13 C/ N/A
L. OPEN SE
M. C13
N. 12345/7
0. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX09A IVAN OB 12
MAX FLT WND 132KTS SE QUAD 1737Z

Eyewall replacement?

[c5Camille]

yes... on the last day and a half it does...
the previous 3 1/2 are pretty muck right on.

[x-y-no]

000
URNT12 KNHC 091805
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1740Z
B. 14 DEG 40 MIN N
71 DEG 49 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2420 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 199 DEG 132 KT
G. 114 DEG 06 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 13 C/ 3058 M
J. 20 C/ 3039 M
K. 13 C/ N/A
L. OPEN SE
M. C13
N. 12345/7
0. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX09A IVAN OB 12
MAX FLT WND 132KTS SE QUAD 1737Z

;

This was about an hour ago - can't see any sign of a structure problem on sattelite. Gotta thing the OPEN SE is a temporary weirdness.