Ivan Advisories

Sanibel · #2261 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:38 pm

I agree. My eye says this is the worst possible approach for Jamaica and a deadly slam will occur...

Anonymous · #2262 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:39 pm

Thanks for the link

Website · #2263 Postby **Brent** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:39 pm

Either that or it's an eyewall replacement? :?:

Website · #2264 Postby **Brent** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:39 pm

chris_fit · #2265 Postby **chris_fit** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:41 pm

Guest · #2266 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:41 pm

It already is. Look at Grenada. I heard reports on the news saying that 90% of the buildings/homes in that country are seriously damaged or destroyed.
...Jennifer...

HurricaneBill · #2267 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:42 pm

Those meteorologists are being absolutely selfish. They are also being completely thoughtless. There is a Category 5 hurricane that could hit Jamaica as a strong Category 4! (Although I think Allen was a cat5 when he moved past Jamaica)

They'd prefer to argue over a few days of wages from February instead of try to protect millions of innocent lives in their own country?!

This sounds like a form of bribery.

DAVE440 · #2268 Postby **DAVE440** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:42 pm

GFDL (and a few others) shifted to the west this am and again this afternoon.

Feel like I'm watching the radar scene from "Airplane"

"She's at 10,000 - 20,000 - 5,000 ....she's all over the place!"

BTW- just checked the radar range... turkeys almost done...LOL!!

Josephine96 · #2269 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:42 pm

Yes it will be

JTD · #2270 Postby **JTD** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:43 pm

Jennifer, yeah I heard that too :eek:

Not good at all.

x-y-no · #2271 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:44 pm

Brent wrote:Either that or it's an eyewall replacement?

Maybe, but the eye isn't terribly small yet and it looks good on sattelite ...

Josephine96 · #2272 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:44 pm

Yes it will be

Website · #2273 Postby **Brent** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:45 pm

x-y-no wrote:
Brent wrote:Either that or it's an eyewall replacement?

Maybe, but the eye isn't terribly small yet and it looks good on sattelite ...

Exactly.

Hmmmmm....

Josephine96 · #2274 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:45 pm

sorry for the double

ilmc172pilot · #2275 Postby **ilmc172pilot** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:45 pm

They all seem to agree on that NW turn and a florida strike dont they?

#2276 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:46 pm

Dmetal81 · #2277 Postby **Dmetal81** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:46 pm

High to the east, Trough to the west, and Florida is right in the middle of the funnel right now... I hate to do this again next week *sigh* But florida it is.

Hurricane Cheese · #2278 Postby **Hurricane Cheese** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:48 pm

anyone have any intensity takes?

#2279 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:48 pm

Please...I realize the trend these days is to take each model and compare it to the last run of the same model and conclude city x, y or z is going to get hit.

ALL we know for sure is that some place in FL is going to feel a direct impact from Ivan...as has been indicated for DAYS. Even the all of a sudden super popular CMC model is starting to show the N hook that the other models have been showing (seems like the best model for folks to use is the one that supports their idea of where the storm is going) to the east of 85W.

The evolution of the pattern...and the shape of Florida...make it IMPOSSIBLE to determine a specific threat at this time.

Please feel free to take your best guess...because all of this is going to happen in 3 to 4 days. But...hopefully anyone in Florida reading this realizes that all we have right now is a BEST GUESS and not an absolute solution. Anyone can pick a model and support a landfall at this time.

MW

tropicana · #2280 Postby **tropicana** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:48 pm

I couldn't have written a better post...soonertwister!
A disaster of unfathomable belief if it's a direct hit for certain.

-justin-

Ivan Advisories

18z models for Ivan

Now shifting west...for the 2nd time today...

All we Know is that Florida is Threatened

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