Ivan Advisories

[canegrl04]

Ivan is holding up pretty well throughout the day.Wasn't he suppose to be going over cooler sst's today? If so,it hasn't damaged him much

[Hurricane Cheese]

So much for that "open" eyewall....Ivan is back rockin and rollin

[adelphi_sky]

I say it stays until Jamaica. Then it gets knocked down to a cat 4. Then maintains until Cuba. Gets knocked down to a cat 3. Then strengthens back to a cat 4. So in other words. Take it all in while you can. It's not gonna last long.

[cycloneye]

Yep that is what the models start around 130kts.

[Patrick99]

I am thinking N. FL - in order to follow the forecast track, I think he needs to start turning more NW......right now, I just don't see it. The ATL high seems to be nudging in a bit.

[Josephine96]

I think it'll stay a Category 5 a little while longer

[bahamaswx]

Thousands dead in Jamaica? I disagree.

[Hurricane Cheese]

So much for that "open" eyewall....Ivan is back rockin and rollin

[dhweather]

Cat 4 at 5pm

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

Thousands dead in Jamaica? I disagree.

210 mph winds at 350 ft. this storm is a catagory 5. did you see how homestead fared in hurricane andrew. this storm is it's equal except perhaps larger windfield. if the northern eye wall passes near kingston, this is going to be a disaster for this poor country.

[Hurricane Cheese]

If its a Cat 4 it'll ONLY go down to 150 mph...


Izzy did the same thing last year

[Hurricane Cheese]

If its a Cat 4 it'll ONLY go down to 150 mph...


Izzy did the same thing last year

[drezee]

I wonder if they will issue another one...

[Josephine96]

I wonder if it'll get any stronger than the 160..

[dhweather]

The trend has been spin up, ERC, down a bit, and spin up more. The question is will the environment support > 160

[spaceisland]

Cycloneye, it may be a Cat 4 at 5 pm, but not for lack of attempt at strengthening! There is now a 9 degree temp differential (as opposed to only 7 at the 1740Z vortex message).

Also, the lat/long has changed 4 minutes west but 8 minutes north since the last fix (about an hour).

Pressure has dropped 2 mb and the eye went from 13 nm at 1740 to 10 nm as of 1837Z.

[yoda]

Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 30


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 09, 2004



both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes have been in the eye
of Ivan during the past few hours. Minimum pressure remains at
about 921 mb but maximum flight level winds have decreased to 144
knots. This suggests that initial intensity can be lowered to 130
knots at this time. There were some indications from microwave
data and now confirmed with the plane that Ivan has a double
eyewall structure. This may explain the recent slight weakening.
The hurricane will probably fluctuate between Cat 4 and 5 while
moving through an area of low shear and high oceanic heat content
before reaching Cuba. Thereafter...the effects of land and
increasing shear will cause a gradual weakening.

Ivan continues to move toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at
13 knots. This general motion with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected during the next 2 to 3 days. As mentioned in the
previous discussion...there is high confidence in this portion of
the forecast because the hurricane will be steered by the flow
surrounding a well-established subtropical ridge. All models are
highly clustered during this period...bringing the hurricane
near or over Jamaica...the Cayman Islands and western Cuba with a
decrease in forward speed. Thereafter...the track continues to be
uncertain since steering currents are forecast to weaken and models
diverge. However...models from 12z are in slightly better agreement
than in earlier runs...and in general have shifted a little bit
westward. The official forecast also shows a slight westward shift.

The wind radii were adjusted based on the stepped frequency
microwave radiometer data onboard the NOAA P3 plane currently
investigating Ivan.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 09/2100z 15.0n 72.5w 130 kt
12hr VT 10/0600z 16.1n 74.2w 130 kt
24hr VT 10/1800z 17.5n 76.2w 135 kt
36hr VT 11/0600z 18.8n 78.0w 130 kt
48hr VT 11/1800z 19.7n 79.3w 140 kt
72hr VT 12/1800z 21.5n 81.5w 140 kt
96hr VT 13/1800z 25.0n 83.0w 115 kt
120hr VT 14/1800z 28.0n 83.5w 100 kt

[yoda]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 30


Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 09, 2004


...Hurricane Ivan heading for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

At 5 PM...2100z...the government of the Cayman Islands has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the Cayman Islands.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the
Dominican Republic from Barahona to perdenales. A tropical storm
watch remains in effect for the southwestern coast of the Dominican
Republic from palenque westward to Barahona.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for central and eastern Cuba from
Matanzas eastward.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located by a
reconnaissance plane near latitude 15.0 north...longitude 72.5 west
or about 350 miles... 565 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph ...24
km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours. On this track the hurricane will be nearing Jamaica on
Friday.

Although maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 150
mph...240 km/hr...with higher gusts....Ivan is a dangerous category
four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.

Latest minimum central pressure reproted by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 921 mb...27.20 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position...15.0 N... 72.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 921 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
AST.

Forecaster Avila


---------------------------------------------


Hurricane Ivan Forecast/Advisory Number 30


Statement as of 21:00Z on September 09, 2004



a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

At 5 PM...2100z...the government of the Cayman Islands has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the Cayman Islands.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the
Dominican Republic from Barahona to perdenales. A tropical storm
watch remains in effect for the southwestern coast of the Dominican
Republic from palenque westward to Barahona.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for central and eastern Cuba from
Matanzas eastward.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

Hurricane center located near 15.0n 72.5w at 09/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 13 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 921 mb
eye diameter 10 nm
Max sustained winds 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt.
64 kt....... 30ne 30se 25sw 30nw.
50 kt....... 60ne 60se 45sw 60nw.
34 kt.......150ne 75se 60sw 140nw.
12 ft seas..300ne 140se 140sw 200nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 15.0n 72.5w at 09/2100z
at 09/1800z center was located near 14.7n 72.0w

forecast valid 10/0600z 16.1n 74.2w
Max wind 130 kt...gusts 160 kt.
64 kt... 35ne 35se 35sw 35nw.
50 kt...125ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...150ne 75se 75sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 10/1800z 17.5n 76.2w
Max wind 135 kt...gusts 165 kt.
64 kt... 35ne 35se 35sw 35nw.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 45sw 60nw.
34 kt...150ne 75se 60sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 11/0600z 18.8n 78.0w
Max wind 130 kt...gusts 160 kt.
64 kt... 35ne 35se 35sw 35nw.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 45sw 60nw.
34 kt...150ne 75se 70sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 11/1800z 19.7n 79.3w
Max wind 140 kt...gusts 170 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 45sw 60nw.
34 kt...150ne 75se 60sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 12/1800z 21.5n 81.5w
Max wind 140 kt...gusts 170 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 45sw 60nw.
34 kt...150ne 75se 60sw 150nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 13/1800z 25.0n 83.0w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.

Outlook valid 14/1800z 28.0n 83.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 15.0n 72.5w

next advisory at 10/0300z

forecaster Avila

[yoda]

And the track shifts westward some..

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

That is a big uhoh....

[dhweather]

For the last six hours, there have not been any changes in the direction of
Ivan. Not even any wobbles. Should this trend continue, he'll come in
South of Jamacia, and the GOM thoery builds quickly.

Stay tuned.