Ivan Advisories

[Josephine96]

Yeah you aint kiddin.. looks bad for Tampa and worse for Central Florida as well

[Brent]

I don't understand the significant weakening over the Gulf... Charley rapidly intensified over those waters.

Another thing... Charley was also forecast to parallel the coast and go north of Tampa but made the last-minute turn.

[B-Bear]

I'm surprised they weaken it so much after it goes over Cuba. I'm not sure I buy it. I guess we'll see.

[Lebowsky]

That track is bad for me but if it stays like that at least I will know what direction to evacuation.

The "up the middle of the state" one left me nowhere to run within the state.

[B-Bear]

I don't understand the significant weakening over the Gulf... Charley rapidly intensified over those waters.

Another thing... Charley was also forecast to parallel the coast and go north of Tampa but made the last-minute turn.

Well, I don't think Ivan is going to turn on a dime like Charley did. First of all, he's too big for that. Second, the atmospheric conditions are different. But the waters ARE warm enough for rapid development. They must be counting on Cuba taking a lot out of him, and shear once he gets in the Gulf. How much Cuba takes out of him will depend upon where he crosses Cuba, and how fast he is moving when he gets there. But I wish they would talk about the shear more--why they expect it and how much shear they expect.

[msbee]

News from USAID (US Administration for International Development)

USAID representatives are in the region and are expected to arrive in
Barbados today, September 9, to continue assisting in the emergency
response. A USAID/OFDA consultant is on the ground in Grenada as part of a
five-person assessment mission and confirms major damage via telephone; a
detailed report will be forthcoming.

A plane of emergency relief commodities is scheduled to depart Miami at 2
pm today and is scheduled to arrive in Grenada at 7:30 pm.

USAID representatives are in the region and are expected to arrive in
Barbados today, September 9, to continue assisting in the emergency
response. A USAID/OFDA consultant is on the ground in Grenada as part of a
five-person assessment mission and confirms major damage via telephone; a
detailed report will be forthcoming.

USAID, in conjunction with the U.S. Embassy in Barbados and Chargi d'
Affairs of Grenada, is coordinating the delivery of emergency relief
supplies including: 3,360 10L water containers and 6,800 five gallon water
containers; 500 rolls of plastic sheeting (each roll can shelter 10
families, 5,000 families in total); four 10,000L water bladder kits and 1
water treatment unit. These emergency relief supplies are valued at
$253,750.

[c5Camille]

God Help them...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... _5day.html

[Weatherboy1]

As a resident of SE FL, any shift west in the forecast track is welcome. And now we've had that for two straight updates. Hopefully the trend will continue overnight (won't be able to monitor it myself at home ... only able to get online at work because my home cable service is still out, and so is my cable 'Net access). But unfortunately, this storm is going to be a killer for some people -- especially those in Jamaica. Best of luck to all of them -- I'm off to gas up the car just in case!

[canegrl04]

Looks like Ivan is going to leave a long trail of death and destruction.

I have heard mets say ivan could be a cat 4-cat 5 when he hits US,too

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What is the Gom theory? That it ends up going further west than anticipated?By looking at the WV loops it looks like the High is still building and the trough left by Frances is getting cut off. I just keep thinking Ivan is going to go in other directions than what most people think.

[MBryant]

Great emphasis on COULD

[quickychick]

What is the Gom theory? That it ends up going further west than anticipated?By looking at the WV loops it looks like the High is still building and the trough left by Frances is getting cut off. I just keep thinking Ivan is going to go in other directions than what most people think.

So...what directions? Don't leave us hanging, man

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, I really hope it is far away from them.

[canegrl04]

That hurricanes that move south of Jamaica always go into the GOM

[Rainband]

Our local said two scenarios. After cuba into Miami or up the west coast cat 3,4,5.

[PurdueWx80]

Havana was destroyed by Cat 2 Charley...just imagine what a 4 or 5 will do to western Cuba.

[lilbump3000]

Looking on this image below you can cleary see that big black area in the middle of the atlantic, which to me seems to be the high pressure. Now if you go the the NHC site and put on the loop you can clearly see that that area is moving towards flordia, and the little weakness currently off the east coast will soon lose the battle and the high will take over. I dont see anyother troughs that could possible be coming in the next few days. This is just my little opinion and i may be wrong.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/NWATL/WV/20.jpg

[dhweather]

That hurricanes that move south of Jamaica always go into the GOM

BINGO!!!

[das8929]

Wow thats good news for me at least! I just got the power back on and am glad that the track is more west, takes it away fro me .

[Kludge]

I went back to the '88 NHC archives to look at the track forecasts for Gilbert. They continually called for a more northerly direction that never materialized.

Now I realized that forecasting tools and experienced is vastly advanced over these 16 years... but that analog is enough to cause even more caution in their prognostications, in my opinion.