Significant weakening by the end of the period

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hurricanedude
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Significant weakening by the end of the period

#1 Postby hurricanedude » Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:42 pm

it weakens significantly at 120hrs on last NHC discussion....may be good news
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yoda
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Re: Significant weakening by the end of the period

#2 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:59 pm

hurricanedude wrote:it weakens significantly at 120hrs on last NHC discussion....may be good news


True... but I don't buy it. Warm SSTs and GOM water temps in the mid 80s? Where is the weakening from? Am I missing some shear here?
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#3 Postby JayPSU » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:03 pm

Yes, it appears that the NHC is expecting some shear to weaken Ivan before landfall in the US
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#4 Postby B-Bear » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:05 pm

Wouldn't it be nice if they talked about why they expect shear and how much then???? Sheesh.
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#5 Postby Dave C » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:07 pm

Increasing shear is what the 5pm disc. mentions. If it heads towards northern gulf the shear will likely be greater. Conditions may change in the next couple of days so don't be surprised if they have to cut back on weakening, but shear is our friend although not soon enough for Jamaca or Caymens.
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yankeelmbb
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#6 Postby yankeelmbb » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:10 pm

does the new projected path take into consideration the high pressure building over the gulf? Thay spoke of this earlier, but no mention now.....couldn't that shift the track back eastward again? Depending on how strong the high pressure is....or did I miss something
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#7 Postby Dave C » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:17 pm

I found this graphic on upper environment conditions, notice the maps on Sunday when Ivan should be approaching southern gulf
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
Can only assume shear may move deeper into gulf Monday.
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#8 Postby yankeelmbb » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:20 pm

favorable for intensification right? But what about that high pressure in the gulf shifting it eastward
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