New Euro Over miami....

[ericinmia]

This is bothering me, it has been so consistant with a south fla landfall throughout the forecasting period. The Euro was on target with Frances over 7 days out.


It expects the ridge to be weaker, and the trough to dig stronger/deeper.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

-Eric

[yoda]

Correct. And if one continues with it... it comes back out over the Atlantic and makes landfall IMO somewhere around the VA/NC border again.

[Lockhart]

Well, the other models are all moving it quite a bit further West, and the trend has been West for quite a bit. As it's only four days out, and as the trend is West, and as almost all models are saying well West of Miami, I wouldn't worry so much for a while. Take a breather for a day.

[BonesXL]

The tren is west...right...this morning I wake up in Miami and I see the 5:00 am NHC track getting very close to Miami. Look, this storm is really going to surprise alot of people. Just be careful.

[wlfpack81]

Well right now there's a weak trough in the e-ern GOM. As it was looking earlier the high building into the GOM from the west work with with the high coming in from the Atlantic wash that trough out and allow Ivan into the e-ern GOM. Howver, if a low pressure area does develop over the BOC I'm wondering if that'll help erode that forecast high over the w-ern GOM therefore allowing the trough not to be completely washed out which could allow Ivan to get nudged a bit farther east than currently forecasted?

[Guest]

I really don't see this going to miami, but you guys can hope and pray it does and look at all the little models. IMO It should hit the panhandle. Now with the northward movement more apparent, odds of the east gom scerinao playing out have increased, where as before it looked to be a central GOM threat. Panhandle needs to start preparing. This will not be the leftovers of a hurricane like frances was and it should at least be a cat 4 hurricane when it strikes.

P.S Where is the phantom shear susposed to be coming from when it enters the gulf?I mean we are dealing with a cat4/5 storm that creates its own enviroment. I don't think it will weaken all that much but i'll have to look into it further...

[yoda]

I really don't see this going to miami, but you guys can hope and pray it does and look at all the little models. IMO It should hit the panhandle. Now with the northward movement more apparent, odds of the east gom scerinao playing out have increased, where as before it looked to be a central GOM threat. Panhandle needs to start preparing. This will not be the leftovers of a hurricane like frances was and it should at least be a cat 4 hurricane when it strikes.

P.S Where is the phantom shear susposed to be coming from when it enters the gulf?I mean we are dealing with a cat4/5 storm that creates its own enviroment. I don't think it will weaken all that much but i'll have to look into it further...

Derek answered that in another thread... see that one.

[air360]

yea, it did do really well with Frances...becuase of that i would watch it very closely...as we should watch everything very closely...the next few days will be very interesting

[ericinmia]

Well, the other models are all moving it quite a bit further West, and the trend has been West for quite a bit. As it's only four days out, and as the trend is West, and as almost all models are saying well West of Miami, I wouldn't worry so much for a while. Take a breather for a day.

Not near correct...

The trend the past few days have been EAST... as of this morning at 5am... the NHC official track was right through the center of the state because half the models were east of FL, and half west... with some like the gfdl right up the state...

Even the Canadian GGEM model has been moving east daily... It used to be the only outlier to the west... predicting the storm to continue west into the Yucatan. However, now the Canadian is predicting a brush of the west coast of Fla, heading it into the panhandle.

As of this point we all still don't know where it will go with any confidence... even the NHC agrees with this in their discussions the past few days.

The west movement is by far NOT a trend... it happend just this afternoon...
If you think back for days and days the models were predicting a west-ward track... all the while the ECWMF "Euro" was predicting south fla.
Over time it appears the Euro was correct as it was with Frances in the long term. The rest of the models have and are following it to FL.

that little tid bit should explain some of the reasoning why i would at least give the Euro some good credibility.
-Eric

[Guest]

New models beginning to shift west... Even the horrible GFS is shifting somewhat to the west. So lets not be giving false information here. I would say eariler they were trending to the east, but now to the west...

[yoda]

New models beginning to shift west... Even the horrible GFS is shifting somewhat to the west. So lets not be giving false information here. I would say eariler they were trending to the east, but now to the west...

False info? Wait a min here... look at the 00z ECMWF and you can see it was a W FL hit.. now its a E FL hit up to the NC area.. that is a EAST shift.

[das8929]

Ok, we DONT want an east shift. Cat 4= not fun at all. Lets hope this thing goes west.

[NJCane]

Lets just agree that it is a pretty good bet it is going to hit Florida. As for the models, some have moved west and some moved east, only really to come together a little more on a FL hit. It is stupid to argue about the forecast 5 days out because it can and will change. I will say one thing however, the Euro did an amazing job with Frances even when the other models were saying "go north, go north." This model is much better with the mid lattitude systems than the other models and this was proved with Frances.

[Derek Ortt]

the Canadian is nowehre within 300 miles of the Florida Peninsula. it is bringing the storm into the channel

[ericinmia]

New models beginning to shift west... Even the horrible GFS is shifting somewhat to the west. So lets not be giving false information here. I would say eariler they were trending to the east, but now to the west...

A trend occurs over a lengthy period of time... a few hours is not a forecast trend. The trend the past week was east...

I agree though that this afternoon the model consensus has moved west, however, almost every afternoon this has occured with a continued east trend in the evening...

the 24 hour daily consensus has been shifting east for days now... if this "westward shift" continues into tonight and tomorrow morning... then i will agree with you.

Pay attention to the cone! The NHC themselves have even stated they have no true grasp on where this is going. There is no reason to discredit the Euro, for it is the only one that predicted this over 5+ days ago...
There is no need to dispute every track that is posted...
they are not worth much by themselves, however, watch the consensus...
look at synoptic data...
Watch what NHC, and others say...
-Eric

[ericinmia]

the Canadian is nowehre within 300 miles of the Florida Peninsula. it is bringing the storm into the channel

Dereck is it not still puting it into the Florida panhandle? I believe it still is. Sure it takes a little more of a westward track first before jutting it northward...

[NJCane]

sorry, i did not see that, but still the point being made is that the models are not really shifting either way, but rather converging

[greeng13]

i have 1 quick question

What exactly is the BOC that wlfpack81 refers to?

I mean what does BOC stand for as an acronym?

[PurdueWx80]

Even the Canadian GGEM model has been moving east daily... It used to be the only outlier to the west... predicting the storm to continue west into the Yucatan. However, now the Canadian is predicting a brush of the west coast of Fla, heading it into the panhandle.

Umm...nowhere near correct is right. The Canadian has not had one single run over the past few days into the west cost of FL. It has been very consistent on a run through the Yucatan Channel or over the west tip of Cuba, follow by motion towards NO then in near Mobile bay or so. EVERY single run since at least Monday has had that exact path. It hasn't given an inch, and I am giving it full credit this time. I generally respect the Euro, so it worries me a bit that it isn't further west. Regardless, someone between N'awlins and Miami is getting hit by this storm...I favor the Gulf coast of MS or AL.

[x-y-no]

I wish the ECMWF site would offer more timesteps and more parameters. It's impossible (for me at least) to figure out why it thinks the ridge is weaker. My guess is it may be doing the same thing with the low in the Atlantic as the GFS is, but there's no way to know that based on the few frames this site gives us.