Ivan Advisories

lbchandler · #2361 Postby **lbchandler** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:51 pm

Several years ago my son and I visited St. Thomas after it had been ravaged by Hugo. We met a ranger on the golf course who told us he was without power for NINE 9 months. That is what is likely to happen in Jamacia. I will pray for them.

das8929 · #2362 Postby **das8929** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:52 pm

Actually the last loops show a more NW motion. Bad news for Jamaica. Good news is that Jamaica should weaken it somewhat.

Coldfront · #2363 Postby **Coldfront** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:52 pm

KBBOCA wrote:yes, amen. Even while my thoughts and fears are too easily focused on Florida, I am praying for Jamaicans.

1) that Ivan would miraculously weaken/turn away
2) that people would be directed to the safest/strongest shelters that can survive this storm and heed the warnings
3) for peace and an assurance of God's presence and love even in the midst of such a crisis.

may the Lord keep you in Jamaica safe no matter what happens.

Amen, amen!

HouTXmetro · #2364 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:55 pm

Ive been thinking the same thing. That weakness is being diminished by High Presuure on both sides.

#2365 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:57 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:Looking on this image below you can cleary see that big black area in the middle of the atlantic, which to me seems to be the high pressure. Now if you go the the NHC site and put on the loop you can clearly see that that area is moving towards flordia, and the little weakness currently off the east coast will soon lose the battle and the high will take over. I dont see anyother troughs that could possible be coming in the next few days. This is just my little opinion and i may be wrong.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/NWATL/WV/20.jpg

o.k...so where's it going based on this?

c5Camille · #2366 Postby **c5Camille** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:59 pm

i think (and correct me if i'm wrong) he's implying
a swing out to about 85 longitude with a slow down
in forward speed...

Patrick99 · #2367 Postby **Patrick99** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:00 pm

I don't know why I saw people boarding up already on my drive home. Ivan ain't coming to Miami - cone or no cone. If it follows the NHC track or anything west, we won't see a drop of rain.

das8929 · #2368 Postby **das8929** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:01 pm

Lets hope

. We sure as hell dont need this now.

#2369 Postby **Cookiely** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:02 pm

After listening to our local mets this evening and what they didn't say, I'm going to say Tampa. I have never in my life seen more nervous and worried mets EVER. Their manner and body language made the hair stand up on my neck.

Cuzam · #2370 Postby **Cuzam** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:02 pm

c5Camille wrote:i think (and correct me if i'm wrong) he's implying
a swing out to about 85 longitude with a slow down
in forward speed...

Where to ? :?:

wabbitoid · #2371 Postby **wabbitoid** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:03 pm

The current track to me looks like it could really take out Tampa. The water in the Gulf has surface temps by IR of 35C, which is amazing. If it comes off Cuba with any strength it could be a monster again quick.

Galvestongirl · #2372 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:04 pm

naaa...yall are all wrong...this is a texas storm j/k :lol:

lilbump3000 · #2373 Postby **lilbump3000** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:04 pm

Im not going to say were i think landfall will be, because it can be anywere from louisiana to florida, but with that high building in i think the models are pretty crazy at basicly turn the system into the high.

#2374 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:06 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:Im not going to say were i think landfall will be, because it can be anywere from louisiana to florida, but with that high building in i think the models are pretty crazy at basicly turn the system into the high.

not looking for a landfall prediction...is this the same track as NHC?

JayPSU · #2375 Postby **JayPSU** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:06 pm

das8929 wrote:Actually the last loops show a more NW motion. Bad news for Jamaica. Good news is that Jamaica should weaken it somewhat.

I agree, the last several frames of the IR loop that I just saw seem to show a more northerly component to Ivan's track. People in Jamaica really need our prayers right now, folks.

Rainband · #2376 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:07 pm

Galvestongirl wrote:naaa...yall are all wrong...this is a texas storm j/k

good, we don't need it or want it

canegrl04 · #2377 Postby **canegrl04** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:07 pm

If Ivan passes South of Jamaica tomorrow,he is going into the GOM.

lilbump3000 · #2378 Postby **lilbump3000** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:07 pm

If the upper low thats riding on the backside of the high does not weaken the high, then i think a track a little futher west than the NHC track will be more likely. Now the system seems to have been moving more to the NW in the past few hours, but it seems if this high stays in place and contiune to build the system will eventually turn back to the WNW.

wabbitoid · #2379 Postby **wabbitoid** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:08 pm

I grew up in Perrine, FL (northern eyewall of Andrew). I like Florida. But I almost hope this one winds up in Florida.

Just a little bit to the west, and this could the one that "fills the bowl" and takes out New Orleans for good. The Gulf is warm and I don't know about this shear they're calling for.

air360 · #2380 Postby **air360** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:10 pm

im going to go a lil more east than most of you and say ride up the east side of Fl...i dont have long drawn out reasoning...but i just feel East side of FL

Ivan Advisories

Re: Ivan may go futher west

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