Ivan Advisories

Innotech · #2381 Postby **Innotech** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:12 pm

I lived on Jamaica for 6 months when I was two.v Obviously I was too young to remember, but that WAS my home. I do remember the music, and our house on the mountain. Good luck Jamaica...I hope youre ready

SwampDawg · #2382 Postby **SwampDawg** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:14 pm

I have to agree, i've been watching the wv loop all afternoon

calidoug · #2383 Postby **calidoug** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:16 pm

Ivan passing over, S, or N of Jamaica is insufficient to determine Gulf vs. Bahamas.

CFL · #2384 Postby **CFL** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:16 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like Ivan could be squeezing somewhere in between two highs. It's just a matter of where that path will be.

#2385 Postby **Mattie** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:18 pm

Might want to take a look at this discussion also -
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=43353

Anonymous · #2386 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:18 pm

calidoug...you are wrong.

#2387 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:20 pm

Very bad news for S Fl.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_096l.gif

Ed25 · #2388 Postby **Ed25** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:21 pm

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories200 ... 1745zb.jpg

#2389 Postby **wsquared77** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:21 pm

Over 75% of the congregation of the church I attend is from Jamaica and many of our friends are very worried about their loved ones "back home". They believe it could definitely cause the type of destruction you are mentioning. We are all praying for everyone there. I'm sure our church will be coordinating some sort of relief effort (assuming we caren't dealing with relief efforts for our own area!) when this is all over, so if you're interested in receiving details on it, just let me know.

Derek Ortt · #2390 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:21 pm

still out of touch with reality is the GFS, but it at least has shifted somewhat to the west

#2391 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:21 pm

IF it happens....

Website · #2392 Postby **Brent** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:21 pm

GFS was showing it missing Florida to the east earlier. :eek:

#2393 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:22 pm

Man, that's got to be scary!

mobilebay · #2394 Postby **mobilebay** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:23 pm

Brent wrote:GFS was showing it missing Florida to the east earlier.

The Key is it is shifting west and has been for about 36 hours now. Remember this is the eastern outlier.

Deana Cuevas · #2395 Postby **Deana Cuevas** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:23 pm

Can anyone tell me if Tampa is safe? I am so confused with all these models. I am new to this and trying to pick up.

Kennethb · #2396 Postby **Kennethb** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:24 pm

Take a look at this link. It gives a really good discussion on Ivan and the ULL.

http://home.earthlink.net/~pvamagic/

Derek Ortt · #2397 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:25 pm

with the eye that is. It is probable that they will see at the very least strong cat 1 conditions, even if this deos pass to their south. But for the eye to make a direct hit, Ivan must move about 295

calidoug · #2398 Postby **calidoug** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:25 pm

The 12Z Euro agrees.

I suspect we're going to see the NHC track shift back east at 11PM.

lilbump3000 · #2399 Postby **lilbump3000** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:25 pm

I will say no one is safe from lets say central louisana eastward to florida. Now by saturday, sunday thats when we will have a better idea on who is not safe. But for now its not looking good for flordia.

#2400 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:26 pm

calidoug wrote:The 12Z Euro agrees.

I suspect we're going to see the NHC track shift back east at 11PM.

wonderful.... :roll:

Ivan Advisories

18z GFS-DIRECT HIT on MIAMI

lookout Jamaica,here he comes

Ivan needs to move about 295 to hit jamaica

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