My most important forecast EVER...

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast # 6
Thursday September 9, 2004 5:30pm
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE THE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

I have made sure to be as in-depth as I can to have the longest discussion I have ever written. This is not the end of the world. This is not George W. Bush having all hurricanes hit Florida to carry that state (I HAVE ACTUALLY HEARD THAT). It is time for Florida to pay it's dues.

Hurricane Ivan is no longer a category 5 hurricane. But that does not mean the show is over. We just got past the beginning credits. Ivan still is a very dangerous category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of up to 150 mph and a hell of a low pressure. 921 mb, that actually once was 919 mb. This is going to be a VERY VERY VERY devestating storm for the island of Jamaica. People everywhere, pray for those there, and wish them the best.

The movement should be west-northwest until it reaches Cuba, after that, as the ridge weakens, I expect a pretty much due north track. I am to the right of the NHC, and most models. Florida, Florida, Florida.... why such a huge news story every 4 years......

The intensity will be determined by eyewall replacement cycles, and fluctuations. I expect little/no weakening over the area of western Cuba (MORE FLAT). Therefore, I keep it at category 4 until landfall. I do not see it being any less that 110 kt at landfall. As a matter of fact, Hurricane Ivan will be moving over those unpredictable waters in what I have newly dubbed "The Charley Box". I have a feeling that it may rapidly intensify in those waters. With a small circulation, eddys, hot water, not ALL THAT MUCH shear.... all bets are off.

NOTE: THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT 72-96 HRS IS CONSIDERING A RAPID INTENSIFICATION DOES NOT OCCUR. IF A CYCLE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DOES, THAT FORECAST MIGHT BE RAISED GREATLY.

12 HRS-- 16.8N-- 74.6 W-- 135 kt
24 HRS-- 18.3N-- 77.8 W-- 140 kt (Crossing Jamaica)
36 HRS-- 18.9N-- 79.2 W-- 135 kt
48 HRS-- 20.4N-- 81.5 W-- 140 kt
72 HRS-- 23.0N-- 82.2 W-- 130 kt (Moving away from Cuba)
96 HRS-- 26.2N-- 82.1 W-- 125 kt (Inland in Florida)
120 HRS- 28.2N-- 82.1 W-- 90 kt

[Derek Ortt]

looks too far right and against the geostrophic wind flow

[chadtm80]

You didnt expect kudos from Derek did you??

Anyway good forecast Floyd.. Except We cant take another one.. So try again

[JTD]

Excellent insights FloydBuster. Thanks for the time you put into this.

[cycloneye]

Good forecast Floyd but the bad news is another landfall in Florida.Let's see how your forecast pans out.

[MWatkins]

looks too far right and against the geostrophic wind flow

Against the CURRENT flow...if it stays the same for the next 5 days...you would be right.

But...the flow is going to change.

Derek...with a system all the way out at 85W you are on your own with your forecast...Good luck.

MW

[storm4u]

I think i am going to go with his forecast in looks good to me, all in all I think Florida is going to get hit again as much as I hate to see it happen to them poor people. I wish this thing would just make some twist and turns and make it out to sea some how but i kno that its not going to and i also hope that everyone comes out of this storm ok. GO AWAY IVAN YOU ARE NOT WANTED!!!!!!

[Cape Verde]

Well, this is a thoroughly depressing forecast. Jamaica wiped out, Havana wiped out (except for the elite) and another hammering of Florida's west coast.<P>Not arguing with it, just pointing out how awful this would be.<P>I guess it could be worse, by forecasting a re-emergence in the Atlantic and a second landfall up north.

[Derek Ortt]

John Cangialosi's forecast is only about 90NM west of the NHC 5 day position

[greeng13]

i don't think his forecast has ivan dying in the state of florida...personally i think at his current speed...he'll motor right on through and still could emerge in the atlantic (hopefully going to the extreme north atlantic---of course not in the path of any land or swordfishermen, etc.)

[Cookiely]

bump

[Anonymous]

So, in general, good forecast?

[chrisnnavarre]

I guess the simple test for this solution would be to see if Ivan actually hits the Island of Jamaica. If it passes south then those of us here in NW Florida are going to really have to give this storm a heads up. We're Floridians as well and I can tell you all I saw alot of worried faces at work today.

I certainly don't agree with the Bush rumors that FloydBuster has been hearing, but then again if it slams into south Florida and goes up the state in the middle one would have to think that someone up there is playing prize-fighter with the entire population of Florida. Left Hook (Charlie), Right Hook (Frances), Upper-Cut (Ivan) - and KNOCK-OUT!

[tronbunny]

I believe that Floydbuster has some good points and thoughts.
I don't agree 100%, but I think that's a mute point, because the key here is that Florida will be hit again.
I believe that even all the models can agree that there will be significant effects beyond Florida, also.
To what extent, I will not speculate too passionately beyond any 72 hr mark.
I know that position is not too bold, but I certainly have no more magic tools at my disposal than the NHC.

[Anonymous]

Well, this is a thoroughly depressing forecast. Jamaica wiped out, Havana wiped out (except for the elite) and another hammering of Florida's west coast.<P>Not arguing with it, just pointing out how awful this would be.<P>I guess it could be worse, by forecasting a re-emergence in the Atlantic and a second landfall up north.

..why didn't you add "Florida wiped out (except for the elite)"?

~Mike

[PTrackerLA]

I don't think Ivan will be any stronger than a cat. 3 at landfall. It will be going over more mountainous terrain than Charley did and has likely already peaked in it's intensity.

[tedler]

So, in general, good forecast?

Floyd, nice work...you continue to impress me.

[Guest]

We are very close. Here's what I posted earlier.

Key West as a Cat 3 after the trip over Cuba and increasing shear. Second landfall around Ft Myers/ Lee county.




Edit. The only real difference I see between us is you have Ivan sharply turning north Via that track {which is hard to tell} but I think he will travel over the larger part of Cuba unlike Charley. {More of a gradual turn}

[NFLnut]

I don't like your forecast one bit. Please change it (westward, thankyouverymuch)

[quickychick]

Dude, cool it with the imbedded images and use links, that helps the admins froth less at the mouth.